Germany GERMANY 2024 - Isaak - Always on the Run

[ESC United Mod Team]

 

[heke1988]

Marie Reim's "Naiv" would be my guilty pleasure, if it happens to win.

 

[mauve]

Marie Reim's "Naiv" would be my guilty pleasure, if it happens to win.

Could happen (she is the daughter of Michelle, ESC 2001) or maybe the snoring song by Max Mutzke.

 

[HarryUK]

Marie’s song gives me drama and I live for it

 

[jatojo]

I guess I'm rather conservative when it comes to Eurovision rules and practices. One of the things I don't think should be messed with is the principle of the singers having to have some relation to the country they contest in. Since this doesn't seem to be the case with Bodine Monet (she doesn't even speak the language), I'll give her entry a big zero, although the song in itself is pretty good.

Ryk's entry is the most ambitious by far. That's also the problem I have with it. The song is so incredibly pretentious, and since it seems to draw inspiration from other artists that I also found a bit too artsy-fartsy, I can't really connect with it. (Ryk reminds me of Danish singer and composer Saveus who is very talented but at the same time strangely artificial.) Still, I think this is the best choice for Germany if they want to do well in Malmö.

Marie Reim - well, what can I say. I actually appreciate a schlager entry as something "ethnic" because the German speaking countries have this genre so strongly embedded in popular culture. But this song ... it's not even generic, it's a copy of many other songs that sound exactly like it. Only a couple of notes "stand out" if you can call it that. It's a bit sad - I should think there is a window of opportunity for schlager, but 'Naiv' is just too ... naive.

The cat song is funny and sweet, but there is no melody in it, and since we don't live in the 1980's, I'm not impressed by the over-simplicity of the song (Da-da-da).

Florian - it had potential, but his falsetto leaves scars in my ears when he's singing live (it's worse than Reiley's falsetto from last year). In general, people should just stop making falsetto songs. Only Gjon's Tears can hit the highest notes, and even then it's slightly annoying to listen to.

 

[mup]

It's disheartening to see such a big and important country doing so bad year after year, particularly in 2023 when Germany certainly did not deserve to finish last, given how committed LOTL were. The country has a large audience, market and resources to potentially produce good music for ESC too, and the German public seems - to me - attached to the contest. I had Germany as my winner for ESC in 2018 but it didn't happen.

Since the last places are now a habit, maybe Germany could try to send a song in German no matter what. Long gone are the 1970s and 80s when Germany brought great singers and songs that are part of ESC history, as well as their top placements. For me, songs like Diese Welt, Theater, Johnny Blue are gems of Eurovision history. When a song like these is well written and composed one can find musicality in the German language as well.

Hopefully the winner the Germans are going to choose from this year's selection will be able to escape a bad result.

 

[ESC94]

So Silbereisen once again has the stage to pretend he´s the biggest ESC fan?? Oh gosh, they´ll never learn.

 

[mauve]

 

[Mainshow]

"Man hat den Songs an, dass sie für den ESC geschrieben worden sind"

Ehm.

--

Everyone was talking about Max Mutzke's phenomenal voice, Marie commented on the lyrics but no one really highlighted the quality of the song/composition or said that they would be loving the song.

Max is all about the voice.

Damn, I would be so mad if he wins on Friday.

 

[Bobjan FR]

I calculated the results of last year with the new system :

LOTL : 18
Will church : 18
Anica Russo : 14
Ikke Huftgold : 13
Patty Gurdy : 13
Trong : 13
Lonely Spring : 12
René Miller : 11

... If the public vote win over jury vote, the winner was the same, but the full ranking was different.

 

[Jupiter]

I guess I'm rather conservative when it comes to Eurovision rules and practices. One of the things I don't think should be messed with is the principle of the singers having to have some relation to the country they contest in. Since this doesn't seem to be the case with Bodine Monet (she doesn't even speak the language), I'll give her entry a big zero, although the song in itself is pretty good.

Bodine does speak German rather well. She did several of her Interviews in german. Her father worked in Frankfurt a lot, and she apparently listens to german music the most and really wants to move to Berlin. And she said she never applied to compete for the Netherlands but went for Germany right away, because she loves Germany. Doesn't have to change your mind, but I wanted to add it

This is somehow cute and cringy at the same time lol
Ryk, Bodine & Galant remain super likeable to me. Leona and Isaak too.
Also, 99 going "well that's Schlager" had me laughing.

Edit: completely forgot about it, but tomorrow we'll know who has the staging people were supposed to send pictures representing love for. I bet it's Max, and we'll get an overused and uncreative staging to accompany his uncreative song lol

 

[I bims]

This is so cringe, you can tell they are all not feeling each others songs as well. But most of them seem super likeable at least.

 

[jatojo]

Bodine does speak German rather well. She did several of her Interviews in german. Her father worked in Frankfurt a lot, and she apparently listens to german music the most and really wants to move to Berlin. And she said she never applied to compete for the Netherlands but went for Germany right away, because she loves Germany. Doesn't have to change your mind, but I wanted to add it

Thanks. Yeah, I did read that she would take German lessons, and besides, no other people can learn German with the same ease as the Dutch. Still, it’s the same concept as the German national football team hiring Harry Kane to come and play an important match. It’s against the whole idea of the event where nations compete against each other (although I know it’s not against the Eurovision rules as such).

 

[DirtyFalcon]

Does anyone stand a chance against Ryk on this NF here ? Is there any fanbases that could advantage one singer and make him create the surprise ? How are the discussions going on in Germany about the acts ? I guess Oh Boy is by far the favourite of everyone.

 

[mauve]

Does anyone stand a chance against Ryk on this NF here ? Is there any fanbases that could advantage one singer and make him create the surprise ? How are the discussions going on in Germany about the acts ? I guess Oh Boy is by far the favourite of everyone.

Ryk is a huge fan favorite leading every polls and the odds, but Marie Reim [being the daughter of Michelle (ESC 2001)] and Max Mutzke (ESC 2004) have the hugest fanbases of this section. These two are very likely to win - not for sure though. Objectively Max has a great voice, but his song is very bland (everyone is saying so). Next to Ryk, Max and Marie Bodine has the most potential to win - so it is probably between these 4 acts. But basically everything can happen on Friday!

 

[mauve]

A video of Alesia Michele talking about the potential winner of eurovision:

a song not performed live yet, not selected yet, male power ballad, song structure being a-typical ect: meaning Ryk (from 12:05) --- she supported him highly in her other video talking about the German selection.

Read the analysis between 12:05 to the end where she talks about the weaknesses of the otherr top 10 songs so far. On point.

 

[I bims]

but Marie Reim [being the daughter of Michelle (ESC 2001)] and Max Mutzke (ESC 2004) have the hugest fanbases of this section.

I came to wonder if that is really true though. I think Marie has going for her that people want a german song and schlager as the german entry rather than specifically her. And I highly doubt the average viewer even remembers that Michelle was at Eurovision, unless they mention it on the show. So while she is still likely to get a lot of support it's not because of a dedicated fanbase, she's not really that successful.
So should she flop with her live singing (and she will) people might refrain from voting for her. But she will be the biggest competition since all her schlager singer buddies drum up their fans to vote for her, similar to LotL and the metal scene last year.
(She is likely to win the televote so if the jury isn't tanking her she'll take it.)

But Max...? He might be known but he isn't a commercially successful artist. And I doubt there are ten thousands of die-hard Mutzke fans that will automatically vote for him no matter what. And there is no campaign by other artists that are telling their fans to vote for him. I don't think he will be a factor on Friday.#

The last couple of years we've been panicking and were sure that Team Liebe and Ikke will win despite being awful... yet they didn't. So I feel like this year will be similar. But I feel like we also won't get our desired outcome, Ryk, and will be faced with a surprise. I wouldn't count Isaak out for example. He could also win the jury vote and get a decent televote score, you never know.

 

[mauve]

I came to wonder if that is really true though. I think Marie has going for her that people want a german song and schlager as the german entry rather than specifically her. And I highly doubt the average viewer even remembers that Michelle was at Eurovision, unless they mention it on the show. So while she is still likely to get a lot of support it's not because of a dedicated fanbase, she's not really that successful.
So should she flop with her live singing (and she will) people might refrain from voting for her. But she will be the biggest competition since all her schlager singer buddies drum up their fans to vote for her, similar to LotL and the metal scene last year.
(She is likely to win the televote so if the jury isn't tanking her she'll take it.)

But Max...? He might be known but he isn't a commercially successful artist. And I doubt there are ten thousands of die-hard Mutzke fans that will automatically vote for him no matter what. And there is no campaign by other artists that are telling their fans to vote for him. I don't think he will be a factor on Friday.#

The last couple of years we've been panicking and were sure that Team Liebe and Ikke will win despite being awful... yet they didn't. So I feel like this year will be similar. But I feel like we also won't get our desired outcome, Ryk, and will be faced with a surprise. I wouldn't count Isaak out for example. He could also win the jury vote and get a decent televote score, you never know.

I would be happy with a surprise like Bodine, Isaak or even Leona (if she performs well and have a wow-moment), but with all of them, we will end quite at the bottom.
I hope we avoid Max, the song is simple boredom. I don't want it to be picked just because of his voice.

And yes, I don't know if Marie's or Max' fanbase is that huge. I think Marie might be rather a threat because of the Schlager-Fans.

I personally just think - not based on being my favorite song, but objectively - that we have the biggest chance with Ryk. That being said we might know more today after the rehearsals. I haven't given up hope yet that Ryk will win, but I am also braced for tragedy.

 

[I bims]

I personally just think - not based on being my favorite song, but objectively - that we have the biggest chance with Ryk. That being said we might know more today after the rehearsals. I haven't given up hope yet that Ryk will win, but I am also braced for tragedy.

Ryk still has a good chance if he wins the jury and is Top 3 in the televote and looking at his streaming numbers, that should be very likely this time. He outperforms Marie on Spotify.

If the televote mirrors the streaming numbers this would be the result:
1. Ryk - 239.286
2. Marie - 228.338
3. Isaak - 196.160
4. Bodine - 142.512
5. NinetyNine - 129.248
6. Leona - 63.142
7. Galant - 46.169
8. Max - 39.735
9. Floryan - 15.813
(It won't be the end result, since old people don't use streaming and those will be voting massively for Marie so I'm certain she will win the televote)

Ryk being in the Top 3 in both votes is a likely scenario at this point. Bodine will be too I would assume, she has strong vocals and people like her song, so jury and televote will be in her favour. The jury won't give much to Marie but she will win the televote, but that will just be translated into 12 points at most, so this doesn't really put her much above the rest like it would've done last year.

 

[mauve]

Ryk still has a good chance if he wins the jury and is Top 3 in the televote and looking at his streaming numbers, that should be very likely this time. He outperforms Marie on Spotify.

If the televote mirrors the streaming numbers this would be the result:
1. Ryk - 239.286
2. Marie - 228.338
3. Isaak - 196.160
4. Bodine - 142.512
5. NinetyNine - 129.248
6. Leona - 63.142
7. Galant - 46.169
8. Max - 39.735
9. Floryan - 15.813
(It won't be the end result, since old people don't use streaming and those will be voting massively for Marie so I'm certain she will win the televote)

Ryk willl being in the Top 3 in both votes is a likely scenario at this point. Bodine will be too I would assume, she has strong vocals and people like her song, so jury and televote will be in her favour. The jury won't give much to Marie but she will win the televote, but that will just be translated into 12 points at most, so this doesn't really put her much above the rest like it would've done last year.

I'm amazed that Max has so few streams tbh. I didn't check it before. Another thing is: Will people stay awake until midnight to vote? How was it last year? Didn't mostly people from the fan bubble vote, I mean apart von Ikke's and LOTL Fans? Well, at least it will be another exciting year. But I hate the guests. That will be boring as hell.

 

[Jupiter]

If the televote mirrors the streaming numbers this would be the result:
1. Ryk - 239.286
2. Marie - 228.338
3. Isaak - 196.160
4. Bodine - 142.512
5. NinetyNine - 129.248
6. Leona - 63.142
7. Galant - 46.169
8. Max - 39.735
9. Floryan - 15.813

Adding in some youtube numbers from their (as far as I know) biggest videos:

1. Bodine 720.256
2. Marie 285.467
3. Ryk 105.032
4. Max 64.667
5. Galant 58.512
6. Isaak 46.496
7. Leona 42.994
8. 99 30.251
9. Floryan 30.003

Floryan is hard to rank agsinst the others - came later, but has some "won IWZE" hype.
Bodine is the big outlier here, tho I wonder if quite a few of those views are International Fans (bcs I've seen her be more popular with them then german fans). Maries Video was uploaded to a big Schlager channel, so there's a bit of a boost. Then Ryk, then "the rest".

And I agree, I wouldn't be shocked if Max doesn't end up too high in the televote. If this came saturday, prime time, on RTL? Likely. But he feels absolutely "well known, but nobody cares enough to tune in friday at 10 for him". With a good song he'd be the favorite - but his song is just weak.

In the end, I think everything is still wide open, and will depend on staging and live performance. That's why I'm really curious about the first reports there today.