Deserved, but i still hope that
will make it. I dont know which Newcomer we will have otherwise.
Their chance to climb up to second place is still there and it's not even unlikely.
Even if South Korea wins their match today and extend their margin to Uzebkistan to 4 points they are not safe yet.
South Korea is gonna face Iran in matchday 9 while Uzebkistan gotta play against China. I can see South Korea losing it (even though Iran might not play with total determination knowing they are already qualified) and Uzbekistan beating China. Then suddenly Koreas advantage has almost melted away and there will be a final battle on last match day between Uzbekistan and South Korea with Uzbekistan being the home side.
However, even though this sounds optimistic for Uzbekistan I don't see them finishing ahead of South Korea. The Koreans have much more quality and experience .
I wonder if there are potential newcomers in other continents.
Oceania.. no. Just no.
In South America it could only be Venezuela but they are dead last in their campaign and have no chance anymore. I guess they are already deperately waiting for their golden generation to join the A-team (their under-20 team were finalists of this year's U-20 World Cup)
In North America,
Panama is a serious contender. The match vs Honduras tomorrow will be a key match in the fight for the 4th place. The fourth placed team will meet the 5th place of Asia qualification (possibly Uzbekistan?) and I can see Panama winning that
The Africa qualification is a totally open race once again. DR Congo already took part in WC under a different name (Zaire, in 1974) so I don't count them. However,
Burkina Faso looks pretty promising atm. They're leading the group and their competitors Senegal and South Africa are far away from their best times... but as I said, it's completely open. Also
Uganda in Group E started well, but they have Ghana and Egypt in their group so this is pretty tough.
Last but not least: Europe. I make it short: If there is a newcomer then it'll be
Iceland. For me their chances are like 40:60. Meanwhile they should have a somewhat decent coefficient which means if they become 2nd place they might get allocated to the upper pot in the play-offs draw. But then again... why not winning this group? Croatia still have difficult away matches against Ukraine and Turkey in their schedule and Iceland can gather some more sneaky wins. Since this group is a bloodbath Iceland can also end up on 3rd or 4th place anyway. One shouldn't rule out
Montenegro yet but I expect Denmark to catch them up.
My Newcomers prediction:
Panama... and, since I am biased,
Iceland. Unsure about
Burkina Faso.