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FIFA WORLD CUP 2018 - RUSSIA

ShoeFlo

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Looks like another tournament without :nl: .. they are still three points behind :se: and their goal difference is much worse .. and :se: has still a home match against :lu: on next match day. :nl: gotta humiliate :se: and beat them with many goals. I am not sure if they're even gonna win
 

Sabiondo

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Looks like another tournament without :nl: .. they are still three points behind :se: and their goal difference is much worse .. and :se: has still a home match against :lu: on next match day. :nl: gotta humiliate :se: and beat them with many goals. I am not sure if they're even gonna win

:nl: need before do a porn movie in :by: before dreaming in revange in Amsterdam! ;)
 

Realest

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:be: is becoming the first European QF team to WC 2018!? :eek:

Yes, that was unexpected. Everybody expected :de: or :pl:.

Btw props at :lu: for the 0:0 in :fr:
 

Sabiondo

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Tomorrow :ng: should be the first African team QF to WC 2018, because they are unbeteable in their group and if they win over ::cm ; as well :de: will becoming the secound European QF to WC 2018!
 

ShoeFlo

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I'd like to refer to an older post of mine in which I analyzed the chances of world cup debutants

Their chance to climb up to second place is still there and it's not even unlikely.
Even if South Korea wins their match today and extend their margin to Uzebkistan to 4 points they are not safe yet.
South Korea is gonna face Iran in matchday 9 while Uzebkistan gotta play against China. I can see South Korea losing it (even though Iran might not play with total determination knowing they are already qualified) and Uzbekistan beating China. Then suddenly Koreas advantage has almost melted away and there will be a final battle on last match day between Uzbekistan and South Korea with Uzbekistan being the home side.
However, even though this sounds optimistic for Uzbekistan I don't see them finishing ahead of South Korea. The Koreans have much more quality and experience .

I wonder if there are potential newcomers in other continents.

Oceania.. no. Just no.

In South America it could only be Venezuela but they are dead last in their campaign and have no chance anymore. I guess they are already deperately waiting for their golden generation to join the A-team (their under-20 team were finalists of this year's U-20 World Cup)

In North America, Panama is a serious contender. The match vs Honduras tomorrow will be a key match in the fight for the 4th place. The fourth placed team will meet the 5th place of Asia qualification (possibly Uzbekistan?) and I can see Panama winning that

The Africa qualification is a totally open race once again. DR Congo already took part in WC under a different name (Zaire, in 1974) so I don't count them. However, Burkina Faso looks pretty promising atm. They're leading the group and their competitors Senegal and South Africa are far away from their best times... but as I said, it's completely open. Also Uganda in Group E started well, but they have Ghana and Egypt in their group so this is pretty tough.

Last but not least: Europe. I make it short: If there is a newcomer then it'll be Iceland. For me their chances are like 40:60. Meanwhile they should have a somewhat decent coefficient which means if they become 2nd place they might get allocated to the upper pot in the play-offs draw. But then again... why not winning this group? Croatia still have difficult away matches against Ukraine and Turkey in their schedule and Iceland can gather some more sneaky wins. Since this group is a bloodbath Iceland can also end up on 3rd or 4th place anyway. One shouldn't rule out Montenegro yet but I expect Denmark to catch them up.

My Newcomers prediction: Panama... and, since I am biased, Iceland. Unsure about Burkina Faso.

So, what changed?

Despite of their loss to China what made them drop down to 4th place, Uzbekistan can qualify on tuesday by their own efforts! Getting 2nd with 5 wins and 5 losses? Well, that's what I'd call lucky. But this group turned out much more balanced as I expected.
They only have to beat South Korea on their home ground and then they suddenly realized their biggest success of history. Why "only"? Because beating South Korea has never been easier...they lost their away matches against both China and Qatar.
However, in the past when things got serious Uzbekistan couldnt get their shit together. I wish them good luck anyway

Syria probably cross their fingers for South Korea. Theirselves wont probably beat Iran (Iran just doesnt concede goals) but if Uzbekistan loses, they can stick to their 3rd place and can keep fighting for the World Cup participation. :D I don't think this is gonna happen and probably they couldnt get over Saudi Arabia, but nevertheless they should be proud about the latest achievements. Finishing above the WC 2022 host and the world's highest populated country that invests millions of dollars into football business? Thats awesome.

Panama lost to Mexico but that was expected anyway. Nothing changed for them. They play T&T on tuesday (wednesday for us) and this is a must-win. Panama can still dream of qualifying directly thanks to this very bad run of :us: . But as far as I know about Concacaf football the Central American teams mainly rely on their home strength, but away from home they have too much respect and tend to be harmless. Panama won't probably win their away match in US, but they might beat Costa Rica on the last match day cause they'll already be qualified.

As I indicated before Panama and Uzebkistan might cancel each other out if they face each other in the intercontinental play-offs. No idea what team would succeed then.

Burkina Faso got a draw in Senegal. This isnt probably what they desired, but surely an acceptable result. With two home matches ahead and on 1st position they can be quite confident. Cape Verde helped them by beating South Africa. There isnt any strong team in this group, why shouldnt Burkina Faso take advantage? ;) On tuesday they can distance theirselves from Senegal

Uganda is a hot hot contender now. This would be a wonderful underdog story! First of all, they would be the first qualifier from Eastern Africa, a region that lags behind the rest of Africa in terms of football. Moreover, according to transfermarkt they have a market value of only 3,5 mio. €. They players are active in the domestic leagues or in countries like Vietnam, Zambia or Lebanon :mrgreen: not a single player who stands out. It's a massive surprise they got 4 points out of the matches against Egypt and Ghana.. please make this dream come true! The away match in Egypt follows. Probably their most difficult one up to date.

In Europe my dear Iceland suffered a unpleasing setback in Finland :( They lost their second position to Ukraine which seemed to be pretty much on fire against Turkey. Iceland can reconquer the second place in the face-to-face against Ukraine on tuesday. It's a home match and Iceland is unbeaten on home ground since 2013. They should definitely head for a win. With a Kosovo home match ahead it would be a big step to the play-off matches. If Iceland draws, things are still open, but they will probably be forced to get a point in Turkey (or win there). If Iceland loses, they are basically out.

----------------------
Uzbekistan seems to be the most palpable debutant for now. Cause their can realize it by winning a home match against a team in crisis.
But still, I feel like Panama and ESPECIALLY Burkina Faso are more likely to qualify. I fear Uganda cant pull it through till the end.
There will be no debutant from Europe.

So: Burkina Faso & Panama
 

Realest

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I would still count with :me:. Maybe they win against :pl:. Lets see.
 

Realest

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It seems that :de: has to wait another Month to safe qualify.
 

JamieBrown

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I so hope that :sc: can qualify through the play-off round
 

JamieBrown

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no way, they can only fight for 3rd place with :sl:

Well, they have a home match against :sk: It's not that impossible. Still there's this silly worst 2nd placer rule which might hit them, but :dk:, :me:, :gr:, :ba: or any of Group I are more likely to miss the play-offs imo
 

EscGeek

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Well, they have a home match against :sk: It's not that impossible. Still there's this silly worst 2nd placer rule which might hit them, but :dk:, :me:, :gr:, :ba: or any of Group I are more likely to miss the play-offs imo

yeah, but :sk: looked scary a few days ago... if :sl: didn't have the best goalkeeper in the world, we'd lose 5:0 or even more...
 

JamieBrown

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yeah, but :sk: looked scary a few days ago... if :sl: didn't have the best goalkeeper in the world, we'd lose 5:0 or even more...

I see. And they also managed to take the lead today. This means for sure they are strong enough, as if we hadn't known before :D But next match is a month away, Scotland is always on fire in their home matches. The possibility is there, but it ain't easy. Also playing in Slovenia the last match day must be hard ;)
 
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