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Eurovision Betting Odds 2012

germany

CPV4931

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MyHeartIsYours

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Top10
1. :se: Sweden - 3.05
2. :ru: Russia - 8.5
3. :dk: Denmark - 13
4. :it: Italy - 13.5
5. :rs: Serbia - 17.5
6. :es: Spain - 24
7. :uk: United Kingdom - 28
8. :ie: Ireland - 28
9. :is: Iceland - 28
10. :no: Norway - 30

Big5+1
1. :it: Italy - 13.5
2. :es: Spain - 24
3. :uk: United Kingdom - 28
4. :de: Germany - 34
5. :az: Azerbaijan - 60
6. :fr: France - 110

Bottom5
38. :hr: Croatia - 430
39. :pt: Portugal - 500
40. :me: Montenegro - 570
41. :mk: Macedonia - 610
42. :ge: Georgia - 620

SemiFinal Winners
SF1. :dk: Denmark - 3.1
SF2. :se: Sweden - 1.57
 
ParadiseES
spain

ParadiseES

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wow! This is like the first time ever Spain is doing well with the odds :eek:

BTW Croatia and Portugal in the bottom??? WTF?? They will qualify!
 
alca
greece

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ParadiseES said:
wow! This is like the first time ever Spain is doing well with the odds :eek:

BTW Croatia and Portugal in the bottom??? WTF?? They will qualify!
Click to expand...

I saw that yesterday and I was so happy!!! :D xheart xhug
 
Miguel
portugal

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Israeliboy said:
Who cares about the betting odds? Every year I just learn that it's bulshit
Click to expand...

Indeed. It's almost unreal. I don't think they ever discovered the winner. The betting odds just shows how bad some people's taste is. Hopefully, the juries will prevent all that like they are being doing in the past few years. Italy at #18 (betting odds) when it ended at #2! xrofl3 This is useless but people enjoy living in a fantasy world because they wanna believe their countries will do well because the betting odds shows it exactly like that. Let them. ;)

I saw this article (http://esc2011.webs.com/apps/blog/show/7090671-how-right-the-betting-odds-were-) from last year about this matter.

Final was held on Saturday, and we have the results. Results comparing to the last betting odds before the Grand Final are interesting as they were so misleading

Position before the final - Country - (Position after the final)

1. France (15)
2. Ireland (8
3. Azerbaijan (1)
4. United Kingdom (11)
5. Germany (10)
6. Estonia (24)
7. Denmark (5)
8. Finland (21)
9. Hungary (22)
10. Sweden (3)
11. Bosnia-Herzegovina (6)
12. Austria (18
13. Slovenia (13)
14. Russia (16)
15. Georgia (9)
16. Iceland (20)
17. Serbia (14)
18. Italy (2)
19. Ukraine (4)
20. Switzerland (25)
21. Romania (17)
22. Greece (7)
23. Moldova (12)
24. Spain (23)
25. Lithuania (19)

Here we can see that only one country can be found on predicted position, it's Slovenia on 13th place.
Click to expand...
 
Matt
united_states

Matt

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MyHeartIsYours said:
2011 is the only year they got it wrong, tbh.
Click to expand...


Not true, let's go back another year.


5/1 Israel (14th place)

11/2 Azerbaijan (5th place)

6/1 Denmark (4th place)

15/2 Norway (20th place)

10/1 Croatia (didn't even qualify)

12/1 Greece, Armenia and Sweden (8th, 7th, didn't qualify)

14/1 Germany (WINNER)

20/1 Belgium (6th place)

25/1 Ukraine

33/1 Slovakia, Iceland, United Kingdom, Ireland and Turkey

40/1 Moldova, Spain and Romania

50/1 Russia, Malta, Lithuania, Cyprus and Georgia

66/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Estonia, Albania and Serbia

80/1 Finland and Switzerland

100/1 Latvia, Belarus, Portugal, France, Bulgaria and The Netherlands


150/1 Slovenia

200/1 FYR Macedonia and Poland






The odds were off in 2010 & 2011 though correctly predicted the 2009 winner.
 

MyHeartIsYours

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In 2010, Germany was always like first or second favourite according to the odds :confused: And before that, in 2008 Russia had been the hot favourite all along, and in 2007 Serbia, near to the time of Eurovision, Serbia had always been in the top 5. In 2009, they pretty much got the top 5 spot on too, Norway, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Turkey and United Kingdom were all the big betting favourites that year.
 
Matt
united_states

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The odds posted are from march 2010 so I went back in time exactly two years for proper comparison. Germany didn't become a favorite until closer to the actual contest. And you can't go back any further than 2009 as we know have a different voting system. The point is odds are t the most accurate tool to go by. They can be right but can be just as wrong
 
Israeliboy
israel

Israeliboy

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Matt said:
The odds posted are from march 2010 so I went back in time exactly two years for proper comparison. Germany didn't become a favorite until closer to the actual contest. And you can't go back any further than 2009 as we know have a different voting system. The point is odds are t the most accurate tool to go by. They can be right but can be just as wrong
Click to expand...

If we are talking about the present, so they are wrong by miles than right ;)
 
MrJadeEwen
uk

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Miguel said:
I saw this article (http://esc2011.webs.com/apps/blog/show/7090671-how-right-the-betting-odds-were-) from last year about this matter.
Click to expand...

Anyone thinking like this really doesn't understand how odds work. The country 2nd in the odds is the 2nd most likely to win the contest. Not most likely to come 2nd. You could for example have an entry like Estonia last year which was either going to top 5 or bottom 5, so in case they win the odds are small so the bookies don't pay out. Having Estonia 6th means Estonia is the 6th most likely country to win nothing to do with 6th place in the slightest.

It usually happens that those most likely to win are nearer the top but it doesn't always happen, and for those you find people complain about the odds. But you appear to misunderstand what the odds represent

Miguel said:
Hopefully, the juries will prevent all that like they are being doing in the past few years. Italy at #18 (betting odds) when it ended at #2!
Click to expand...

Also here... Italy were NEVER going to win hence the fact their odds were so low. The fact that the juries went mad over it is regardless, they would never have the public support to win therefore their odds to win were low.
 
perfavore
italy

perfavore

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Avarage betting rates (17 websites)(17.03.2012)

1.Sweden--------3,05
2.Russia---------7,25
3.Denmark-------11
4.Serbia---------12,50
5.Italy---------- 14,20 :?
6.Irland ---------17,50
7.UK------------ 19 :?
8.Norway-------- 20
9.Spain----------21
10.Turkey------- 22
10.Germany------22,50
12.Iceland------- 25
13.Greece--------27
14.Cyprus--------31
 
JackBauer
france

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Poor Anggun not even in the top 14. :lol:

Cyprus seems low with a typical eurovision song but to be honest Cyprus had some good songs and dissapointed in the voting before so.

Denmark so high:eek: it's one of my favorite but still.

Is it me on that eurovision is one of the biggest ever in terms of countries that zero chances to win? ?

I mean every year with have little ballads or average pop song we know won't win but we are never sure they aren't going to do a Latvia 2002 to the contest so you can't write them off for sure. But this year it seems there is many song who can't even hope to surprise:eek:
 
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