Re: AUSTRALIA 2019
Well, it depends on the influence of public vote and if those voters make up of a being majority gays (don't get me wrong, I am gay myself and not saying that all gays are shallow like this but unfortunately there is this influential part of the community that also tend to be ESC fans that are and will support the celebrity drag queen with the cliché entry rather than what's more interesting because it "represents the community" and is "what Eurovision should be"...)
I've been looking at the comments from OGAE Australia members, which are pretty much the demographic you're talking about - majority-gay, lots of drag queen fans etc. Again, nothing wrong with that, but it's the kind of audience you'd think might support Courtney. Thing is, they don't really seem to at the moment - she's towards the bottom end of most people's rankings, with Electric Fields being the default choice of upbeat pop fans (with Sheppard maybe close nearby).
I think the bigger threat with regard to Courtney would come from the more casual voter, who only really hears about Eurovision through the media spin of "it's not about good music; it's all about glamour and being quirky." That misunderstanding could perhaps drive a casual audience to vote for her. But still, on the balance of things, I think she's one of the less likely winners here (compared to Sheppard, Electric Fields, Kate, Leea, Vincent, Aydan, Alfie...)
Isn't there going to be international juries in this NF? Surely they can keep Courtney from winning.
I can't find any indication that they're
international juries specifically, but yes, juries are going to make up 50% of the total vote. And I can't much imagine them giving their top spot to Courtney either way. I feel like they'd go for Sheppard instead, which in and of itself is a little concerning to me... but yeah, probably not Courtney.