Re: AUSTRALIA 2019
Yeah, looking on a map it is a bit apart, but at least they are a little closer.
Maybe hold it in Canberra is better, since it is put between Sydney and Melbourne, that would work better I believe.
I'm no professional event organiser, but I think Canberra might actually be worse. It's slightly closer for Sydney and much closer for Melbourne, but it's still a six-hour drive or a flight at best for Melbourne people, and I don't think reducing a 20-hour drive to a 6-hour one would get
that many extra people coming (maybe just a few hardcore fans who were previously borderline; it's not a casual trip either way).
That'd then be offset by the fact that Canberra has a much lower local population than the Gold Coast area (which includes Brisbane etc.); it's maybe only about 15% in comparison. It's really not a convenient location if you want to get as many people coming to your event as possible.
Given how spaced out Australia is, the best option for drawing a large audience would probably be in central Melbourne or Sydney; trying to go halfway between two big urban centres usually means you're in the middle of nowhere.
Looking at some of his other comments, our HoD seems a little frustrated or annoyed that more people aren't willing to make the journey to the Gold Coast. And I get where he's coming from; he's saying that he's done lots of big events in Melbourne before, wants to try somewhere else, Queensland deserves some big events too etc., and that's all pretty fair. But on the flip side, it's a bit odd that they've chosen to hold the NF in a less-populated location and then take issue when not many people are willing to traverse thousands of kilometres to go there. Anyways; hopefully it fills up.
how likely is it that courtney act can win? because she absolutely needs to lose her song is bad,
There are a lot of unknowns in this NF, given that it's the first time SBS has held one. And she could probably get some support from casual televoters who support her on the basis of "oh, she's a drag queen. That's so Eurovision-y, she'd be perfect." (The "quirky drag queens with sequins and glitter" sort of thing is always overemphasised in the media when they're talking about the contest here; sort of like in the U.K. I blame the years of Wogan commentary.)
But on the balance of things, I don't really see her as a likely winner. Her song isn't getting a whole lot of support from Australian Eurovision fans, who generally share the view of "she'd be cool but not definitely not with this song, which is mediocre". Then there's the fact that she apparently is
not a good live singer, to say the least; and that I don't think juries would go for her. So to win, I feel like she'd need to surprise with her live vocals, bring a bunch of backing singers, attract a large casual audience, have a killer stage show, somehow not flop too hard with juries and even then get lucky.
TL;DR, it's not impossible – weirder things have happened in NFs, and I'm always cautious when predicting Eurovision stuff – but it's unlikely. I reckon she'll end mid-table or a bit below in the results (if SBS even shows us the full results, that is. Hopefully they don't pull a BBC and keep it all secret).
The more likely winner in my eyes is probably Sheppard (if their song is decent, they'll probably be the favourite: they're popular, have a mainstream sound and seem to be putting a lot of effort in). Otherwise, I can see reasons why each of Alfie Arcuri, Aydan, Electric Fields, Kate Miller-Heidke, Leea Nanos or Mark Vincent could take it, if they play their cards right and get lucky. Or in other words, I'd say that virtually everybody except Ella Hooper and Tania Doko stands a decent chance. I'll probably try to write up a more detailed prediction when all the songs are released.
