2018 WINTER OLYMPICS - Pyeongchang/South Korea

[Schlagerman1]

Have your flagbearers for the opening ceremonies been named yet? Today in Ottawa, it was announced that ice dancers Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir will be leading Team Canada into the stadium

I haven't heard anything yet, usually we decide it very late for Sweden, but I should put my money on cross-country skiier Charlotte Kalla. She has 2 gold and 3 silver medals from the two recent olympic games and is one of the most popular athletes in Sweden. The only problem could be that she will compete the very next day, so if not her, than probably some male skiier might do it, like Marcus Hellner, who has 3 gold and 1 silver from the two recent Olympics.

I am wondering though, who might light the torch here? I hope they select a famous athlete, and if so, then I suppose former figure skater Yuna Kim is the one, I know she still is huge in Korea, so she would deserve it a lot.

 

[JamieBrown]

The opening ceremony is 10 days ahead and I guess the nomination deadline passed yesterday. I'm bored, so I'm going to write something about the german squad and their medal chances in each sports (Don't mean I'm an expert. Luckily Germany didn't qualify in Curling )

Alpine skiing
The german chances always related to just a few athletes. Always. Bad luck this time two of them got knee injuries leaving the men's slalom and giant slalom qiute in despair. So it's all up to Viktoria Rebensburg to win one medal. Good for Germany she's first in the giant slalom leaderbords, so a medal should be safe. Out of nowhere the male downhill team developed some Top 10 racers, but I do not see them winning a medal. The only chance left is the new team event. But all our athletes need a brilliant day on that, so I say the chances overall are up to...

2 medals max.

Biathlon
Finally there's a winning athlete like Magdalena Neuner was back in the german team. Laura Dahlmeier is probably the best worldwide these days and would be leading in the world cup, if not her instable health. With former cross country skiier Denise Herrmann there's even a 2nd option to win the sprint maybe, but she just won two races in the beginning and got no podest since then. The womens relay is a big contender for gold, except for Dahlmeier I guess all spots in there are still free. Also the mens relay is a contender for a medal as always, just things rarely worked out so far this season. Nevertheless, a few shining moments happened for every athlete, showing that they can win a medal if things turn out right for them. Sadly 9 medals are already given to Martin Fourcade and Johannes Boe (who may leaves a spot free in the individual or so. Don't have to mention that the mixed relay is also in for the medal, right? So it's...

4-5 medals min.

Bobsleigh
Not the sports I follow, but I heard that they are far away from getting another blank like in Sochi 4 years ago. Looking at the leaderbords Germany placed 5 teams among the Top 3 and 3 more in the Top 6 of Two-(Wo)man. I doubt that there will be a triple win in the Four-Man so I say it's...

3 medals min.

Cross-country skiing
It's just zero. Even when only 4 norwegians will compete the germans are too far away from the medals. All the athletes struggled reaching the qualifications standards from our NOC, I guess some of the nominated athletes still didn't meet them full in the end. Some just wanted to make sure Germany can compete in the relays at least, because more shameful than getting bad results would be not competing. That sounds logic to me somehow. But hey, they can only surprise us all.

Zero medals.

Figure skating
I doubt that Germany developed some more athletes there, so the only chance still is the french-ukrainian pair Massot/Savchenko. But that sounds like a safe bet iirc, so it's...

One medal.

Freestyle skiing
The best ski crosser got the same knee injury like the slalom racers, the last german world cup winning ski jumper, and a world champion in ski slopestyle. That minimizes our chances here to almost zero, but another ski crosser just won a race lately. A little bit surprising, but still...

One medal max.

Ice hockey
It's a little bit tricky here. The best national teams are out due to the olympic boycott of the NHL. Russia also almost got lost, but now it's up to them to win gold. Well the NHL absence also means that the best hockey players from every nation can't play in Pyeongchang as well, but that's the tricky thing about it. Germany clearly loses many great players, with Leon Draisaitl one of the best of the league, but the german hockey league belongs to the 5 best leagues of Europe (Russian KHL excluded). Bad luck that Sweden and Finland as the best of rest that is left are opponents in the prelimanry round, so a medal would come sensational.

One medal max.

Luge
Germany seems the only country with strong competors in every category, so they're the only gold fave for the team race. The last time a non-german female winning the world cup or the olympics was somewhere in the 90's and tbh Natalie Geisenberger has been hardly beatable the last 5 years from what I know. The doubles are racing for a double victory. The greatest chance for a non-german gold medal will be the men's race. Even though Felix Loch won the world cup, but he lost that last year and is not the dominant racer he was. Still these competitions won't leave the germans dissatisfied. That's not possible in any way.

4 medals min.

Nordic combined
One year ago the olympics would've been like the octoberfest with germans celebrating everywhere. This sports shows how fast things can change and now it seems the Norwegians will dominate once again, with a few spots left for World Cup leader Akito Watabe and one german, as they almost always gain a podium anyway. It's just up to them not to screw up their jumps. And here it's another team competition to win a safe medal is left, so it's possibly...

2 medals min.

Short track speed skating
It's a two-woman team and this sports is there for the asians and especially koreans to improve their ranking in the medals table. From what I know it's another...

zero medals

Skeleton
I heard something about this season that is doesn't run too bad for the germans. A look at the leaderbords tells me that two women are first and seconds and one man can also be found among the top 3. So I just say...

2-3 medals.

Ski jumping
It's also 2-1 so far. Two Men and one woman among the top 3 in the leaderbords. And luckily there are three other men strong enough to give Germany realistic gold chances in the team competition, fighting with Poland and Norway and possibly "losing" still. And Carina Vogt who'd won every gold medal since the last olympics is also in a position from where it's not unlikely she wins another medal at least.

3-4 medals min

Snowboard
Great sports, but there's no real infrastructure in Germany to develope a freestyle team, so the medals there are far away for that one athlete Germany's sending. The cross racers are also not often on the podium, so it's up to the giant slalom team to save the stats. I guess we can forget about the men. I haven't seen them gain a podium this year. Actually a podium happens rarely to them, even though they can even win then. But there are three women who reached the podium this year and one who didn't even won once this year but also reached the Top 4 a few more times. Hopefully once she reaches the semi she won't come fourth, or another german is there to back her. Still it's...

One medal max.

Speed skating
I don't know why, but I know that Claudia Pechstein can still win races and Nico Ihle gains the podium more often than one could've expected from a german male speed skater few years ago. Then there's a female team qualified and I could find the stats to say that they rarely do bad when they're qualified. I just say that's...

2 medals max.

Well, I'm staying quite optimistic for the sports where it's worth it to keep that. The NOC got rid of the medal expectations for each sport, they just said they want to reach the same medal count like in Sochi, and hope to improve that. The official motto says "19+X" like the 19 medals they won 4 years ago. If the minimum of my analysis is about to happen it should be 21 medals in the end. Goal hopefully reached.

Oh and about the flagbearer. There's an online survey right now. It's between hockey player Christian Ehrhoff (played 800 times in NHL), nordic combined Eric Frenzel (won olympic gold, the world cup 5 times and 5 gold medal int he world championships), luge racer Natalie Geisenberger (Olympic Gold, World Champion several times, 6 world cup victories, ...), alpine racer Viktoria Rebensburg (World and Olympic Champion) and speed skater Claudia Pechstein (is going for her 7th olympics, won gold there as well/her nomination is quite controversial as she missed the Vancouver olympics due to a positive doping test)

EDIT: I guess one can see how my motivation left Or which sports I might not be that enthusiastic about ^^

 

[JChan]

The opening ceremony is 10 days ahead and I guess the nomination deadline passed yesterday. I'm bored, so I'm going to write something about the german squad and their medal chances in each sports (Don't mean I'm an expert. Luckily Germany didn't qualify in Curling )

I just finished exams and I'm bored as well. I'll write about the Canadian squad and our hopeful medal chances.

Alpine Skiing
Our only real chance at a medal is 2017 Super-G world champion Erik Guay. He injured himself at the start of the season and hasn't competed since. I'm doubtful that he can preform the level that he was last year, although one can only hope!!

1 Medal Max/ 0 Medals Min

Biathlon
The Canadian Olympic Committee gave up on biathlon. They severely slashed their funding and tried to limit the amount of money spent on biathlon programs. The only athlete who medaled on the world cup circuit is veteran Rosanna Crawford. I would be so wonderful if she could prove COC wrong and win a medal in PyeongChang but I'm doubtful.

1 Medal Max/ 0 Min

Bobsleigh/Skeleton
The Canadian Bobsleigh/Skeleton is on the best form I've seen them in years. For the first time in Olympic history we've qualified the maximum amount of sliders for the Olympics, a feat only matched by a super strong German contingent. I'd expect Kallie Humphries to be a favourite to medal, at her third Olympics!! Justin Kripps is leading the two man standings going into the games and I think he's a favourite to medal as well. The women's skeleton team has a lot of depth and I think they will slide into the medals in PyeongChang.

3 medals Max/ 2 medals Min

Cross Country Skiing
Canada's only real opportunity at a medal is Alex Harvey, the reigning 50km world champion. He hasn't quite been on the same form as he was last year though. I'm hoping he medals but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't.

1 medal Max/ 0 medals minimum

Curling!!
There are three curling disciplines at these games and I think Canada is a favourite to medal in all three. Rachel Homan skips the women's team and she is at the top of her game right now. She's played this game since she was 9 and her experience shows. Kevin Koe skips the mens team, I don't think he's quite as successful as our women's curlers but he is still a force to be reckoned with. The newest discipline is Mixed Doubles. I'm not sure how our team of Olympic medalists, Kaitlyn Lawes and John Morris will do, but hopefully they can tap into their Olympic experience to win a medal.

3 medals max/ 2 medals min

Figure Skating
Our figure skating team is full of veterans and is probably the strongest we will see in a while. On a good day I think Canada can medal in all five events, our weakest is the mens individual event, where Patrick Chan is the poster boy for inconsistency. In pairs veterans Duhamel and Radford are looking to add second medal to their collection and in ladies Osmond and Daleman went 2 and 3 at the world championships last year and are looking in fine form this year. Our flag bearers are ice dancers Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir. They are real Canadian royalty. Their figure skating is so fantastic and I really hope they take home the gold in PyeongChang. I think one of Canada's best bets at winning a medal is the team event as we are really strong across all four disciplines.

6 medals max(very generous)/ 2 medals min

Freestyle Skiing
Somehow, in Sochi, we won nine medals in freestyle skiing. It was amazing! I don't think we will repeat that performance in PyeongChang although I think it will be very solid. Mikael Kingsbury went undefeated in the World Cup moguls circuit and I think he is a lock for medal in Korea. In Women's moguls and Women's Ski Slopestyle Olympic champions Justine Dufour LaPointe are looking to defend their titles, they aren't on the same form they were four years ago but I think certainly could medal. In women's ski cross, Marielle Thompson tore her ACL at the beginning of the season and has been in recovery every since. It's up in the air as to if she will compete but if she does, I think she could win a medal.

5 Medals Max/ 1 Medals Min

Ice Hockey
Russia are a favourite to win gold on the mens side. Their team is soooo unbelievably stacked. It's a real tragedy that NHL stars aren't allowed to compete. Our team wouldn't have been as strong as Sochi but still would be a force. I'm salivating at the idea of seeing Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid on the same line. On the women's side, I think they are a lock for a medal. The only question is the colour. Every Olympics the United States seems to have an edge over Canada but we seemingly always find a way to win. I'm hoping the same thing happens in PyeongChang.

2 medals max/ 1 medal min

Luge
Our best hope at a medal is Alex Gough and the team relay. If they win in PyeongChang it will be Canada's second luge medal ever. I'm hoping they can pull/slide thorugh.

2 medals Max/ 0 min

Nordic Combined
We aren't even competing.

0 medals

Short Track Speed Skating
I have a feeling the Koreans will dominated the skating rink. Their team seems to be stronger then I have ever seen it. I'm not sure how Canada will do. Russia's Victor Ahn being banned on the mens side certainly improves our chances at medals. The star of our short track team is Charles Hamelin who is competing at his 3rd Olympics, but he's not on the same form he was four years ago. His wife on the other hand is doing great! She's skating better then I've ever seen and is a favourite to medal imo.

3 medals max/ 1 medal min

Ski Jumping
It's a developing program, check back at the next Olympics!

0 medals

Snowboard
Our Big Air/ Slopestyle team has soo much depth. All four of the snowboarders that we're sending to the Olympics have a chance to medal and imo are the favourites to win gold. We don't factor in snowboard cross but in slalom snowboarder Jasey-Jay Anderson is set to compete at his sixth Olympics. He's 42 and I can't imagine how sensational it would be if he medaled.

4 medals max/ 2 medals min

Speed Skating
Our contingent isn't as strong as it was in 2010 but I think could still medal. The biggest speed skating story is Denny Morrison who broke is femur in a motorcycle accident and a few months later suffered a stroke on a 25 day bicycle ride. If he medals I think it will really represent one of the greatest comebacks and a testament to the true Olympic spirit.

3 medals max/ 1 medal min

Our squad this year is full of veterans athletes planning to retire after these games. I think it will be so devastating to have a terrible games on their last shot. We're in contention but not the favourites in a lot of sports which means it could either go really well for us, or not so great. [MENTION=12837]JamieBrown[/MENTION] the COC keeps talking about how strong the German team is this year. They interviewed the head of the Canadian Olympic Committee and she mentioned how strong the team is compared to four years ago. I also read that the Germans could win over 10 medals in biathlon. Personally I think Germany will easily eclipse 21 medals, my prediction would be around 35 maybe even challenging USA's record of 37.

 

[JamieBrown]

[MENTION=15333]JChan[/MENTION]

I'm surprised to hear the canadian biathlon program is not going to be developed. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Nathan Smith won a world cup race, a silver medal plus another bronze with the relay in world championships during the last 4 years? Why throwing that all away? I think they should develop the sports based on these great results. About your ski jumping analysis I wished they could become true. I heard that US/Canadian team is progressing a little bit, but I wonder if they're going to compete for a Top 10 result.
Also I don't know anything about the hockey squad. I guess these are players that had no chance playing in NHL or turned a little bit too old. Is it still enough to fight for a medal? What do you think? And yeah, that Crosby/MCDavid pairing We were robbed :/

Then about your calculations. Maybe I did a little understatement, we may see soon. I just thought it's better not to expect too much. About the 10 medals in Biathlon. The competition is actually to narrow to expect that much medals. Laura Dahlmeier won 6 medals last year, that's true. But she was on fire that season. This year she suffered from a few little injuries/diseases,. As I said she's probably winning 1-2 medals still, but any more cannot be expected so far. I also updated the medals table from Schlagerman for now and Norway's even going to do better. They have chances to win like 50 medals. The olympics luckily never turn out fully like the seasons are ongoing (especially in Cross-Country, otherwise we would suffer 20 norwegian medals from there), but the competitions too strong for Germany to beat any record. Well, they can do nicely in almost every sports, even though we can not take this as a granted medal. But the team is defo stronger than last time. They recovered almost everywhere and didn't lose strenght in the other sports, only one or two exceptions.

I'm looking forward to the competitions now. I hope it will be all fine, fantastic images, beautiful snowy landscapes, the "exotic" nations winning a one or two medals (and not only in the ice competitions ) and my favourite sports biathlon, ski jumping, alpine skiing and snowboard turning out to be exciting (that means Martin Fourcade and Johannes Boe leaving some medals for the other athletes^^)

 

[GermanBango]

As a big wintersports fan (I'm basically a walking database) I'm obviously beyond excited for the upcoming Olympics.
Here are my predictions for the German team and the Games in general...

The Games in general
- The opening and closing ceremonies are going to be downsized compared to Sochi 2014 and are going to be full of K-pop.
- Some Russian athletes are going to carry the Russian flag with them despite not being allowed to do so
- "The Olympic Athletes from Russia" are going to finish within the Top 6 of the medal table (even ahead of host country South Korea)
- At least one of the biathlon or cross country skiing competitions will be rescheduled due to the temperature being below -15 degrees C.
- Medal table...
1. Norway
2. Germany
3. USA
4. Canada
5. France
6. OAR
7. South Korea
8. Netherlands
9. Austria
10. Sweden

Team Germany
Alpine skiing
Medal very likely
-Viktoria Rebensburg (Giant Slalom)
50/50
-Viktoria Rebensburg (Downhill)
Unlikely but not impossible
-Thomas Dreßen (Downhill)
-Josef Ferstl (Super-G)
-Viktoria Rebensburg (Super-G)
-Team Event
_________________________
Viktoria Rebensburg keeps the women's hopes up while we have some hopefuls in the men's speed events. The injuries of Felix Neureuther and Stefan Luitz are very unfortunate.
I predict: 1x gold / 0x silver / 1x bronze (2 medals in total)

Biathlon
Medal very likely
-Women's Relay
-Laura Dahlmeier (Pursuit)
Medal likely
-Mixed Relay
-Men's Relay
-Laura Dahlmeier (Massstart / Sprint / Individual)
50/50
-Denise Herrmann (Sprint)
-Arndt Peiffer (Pursuit / Sprint)
Unlikely but not impossible
-Simon Schempp (Sprint / Massstart / Pursuit)
-Erik Lesser (Sprint / Massstart / Pursuit)
_______________________
A very strong women's team overall. If it wasn't for Martin Fourcade and Johannes Boe the chances for the men would be higher but well, I guess they have to be happy with bronze these days.
I predict: 3x gold / 2x silver / 2x bronze (7 medals in total)

Bobsleigh
Medal very likely
-Francesco Friedrich (2-man / 4-man)
-Johannes Lochner (4-man)
Medal likely
-Johannes Lochner (2-man)
-Nico Walther (4-man)
-Stephanie Schneider (2-woman)
50/50
-Nico Walther (2-man)
Unlikely but not impossible
-Mariama Jamanka (2-woman)
____________________________
The disaster of Sochi is not going to repeat itself.
I predict: 1x gold / 2x silver / 1x bronze (4 medals in total)

Cross Country Skiing
Unlikely but not impossible
-Women's Team Sprint freestyle
-Women's Relay
____________________________
A good women's team overall ... unfortunately the Scandinavian dominance is hardly breakable. Let's not talk about the men's team.
I predict: 0x gold / 0x silver / 0x bronze (0 medals in total)

Figure Skating
Medal very likely
-Aljona Savchenko & Bruno Massot (Pairs skating)
___________________________
IF they manage to skate as marvelously as they did at the Grand Prix finale they are going to finish top 3 in the short program and win the free skating by a landslide (that program is a true gem)
I predict: 1x gold / 0x silver / 0x bronze (1 medal in total)

Freestyle Skiing
Unlikely but not impossible
-Paul Eckert (Men's ski cross)
___________________________
Heidi Zacher and Lisa Zimmermann are dearly missed here.
I predict: 0x gold / 0x silver / 0x bronze (0 medals in total)

Luge
Medal very likely
-Team Relay
-Natalie Geisenberger (women's singles)
-Toni Eggert / Sascha Benecken (doubles)
-Tobias Wendl / Tobias Arlt (doubles)
Medal likely
-Felix Loch (men's singles)
-Dajana Eitberger (women's singles)
50/50
-Tatjana Hüfner (women's singles)
Unlikely but not impossible
-Johannes Ludwig (men's singles)
______________________________
I predict: 3x gold / 2x silver / 1x bronze (6 medals in total)

Nordic Combined
Medal very likely
-Team Relay
Medal likely
-Fabian Rießle (Normal hill / large hill)
50/50
-Eric Frenzel (Normal hill / large hill)
-Vinzenz Geiger (Normal hill / large hill)
Unlikely but not impossible
-Johannes Rydzek (Normal hill / large hill)
______________________________
IF they manage to somehow get back on the jumping track than they are going to be the ones to beat again.
I predict: 0x gold / 3x silver / 1x bronze (4 medals in total)

Skeleton
Medal very likely
-Tina Hermann
-Jaqueline Lölling
Medal likely
-Axel Jungk
Unlikely but not impossible
-Christopher Grotheer
-Anna Fernstädt
______________________________
I predict: 1x gold / 1x silver / 1x bronze (3 medals in total)

Ski Jumping
Medal very likely
-Men's Team
-Richard Freitag
-Katharina Althaus
Medal likely
-Andreas Wellinger
50/50
-Carina Voigt
Unlikely but not impossible
-Markus Eisenbichler
_______________________________
I predict: 0x gold / 2x silver / 2x bronze (4 medals in total)

Snowboarding
Medal very likely
-Ramona Hofmeister (Women's parallel giant slalom)
Medal likely
-Selina Jörg (Women's parallel giant slalom)
Unlikely but not impossible
-Paul Berg (Men's snowboard cross)
_______________________________
I predict: 0x gold / 1x silver / 1x bronze (2 medals in total)

Speed Skating
Medal very likely
-Claudia Pechstein (5000m)
Medal likely
-Team pursuit women
50/50
-Patrick Beckert (5000m)
-Claudia Pechstein (3000m)
Unlikely but not impossible
-Patrick Beckert (10000m)
-Nico Ihle (500m)
-Claudia Pechstein (Massstart)
____________________________
I predict: 0x gold / 1x silver / 3x bronze (4 medals in total)
____________________________

That leads us to 10 / 14 / 13 and a total of 37 medals in the end.
It's a strong team without a doubt. I just hope that this time the luck will be on our side every now and then.

 

[ShoeFlo]

I will try a lil prediction..

Alpine Skiing

We are literally cursed.
we were unlucky to lose Neureuther due to injury at the beginning of the winter. I dont think he could have beaten Hirscher this season, but he could have gone for silver at least. Now, we dont have a contender in men's slalom. Another unluck happened when Luitz suffered from cruciate rupture in december
Still, In men's downhill we have a shooting star this season called Thomas Dreßen. If he is lucky and in good shape he can fight for a medal. In Super-G Josef Ferstl has underdog chances
The only chance for a golden medal lies in the hands of Rebensburg in giant slalom. But the competition is strong here.
no idea about the combined events... they are mostly random

Prediction: 2 medals, no gold (Shiffrin will win GS)

Biathlon

Somehow I feel the Biathlon events will tip the scales for us in the fight for the upper places in the medal table.
We have 3-4 very good male athletes who however arent consistent and scraped past the top 3 many times. I stiill have trust on of the boys will get a bronze in an individual race and we get another bronze medal in the relay.
in the female events I hope for some gold... Herrmann lost her great early shape of the season but Dahlmeier gains momentum more and more and already won two races this season. She will win us one golden and one silver medal. We will win another golden medal in the relay

Prediction: 5 medals, 2 gold

Bobsleigh

Just like Ben aka JamieBrown I dont care about Bobsleigh. But yeah, we wont see another historical disaster as we had in Sotchi 4 years ago. The results look amazing. Shame, there are only 3 finals in Bobsleigh To put it in a nutshell: golden medals in 2-men and 4-men sleigh, some other medal in 2-women

Prediction: 3 medals, 2 gold

Cross-country Skiing

3 finals in bobsleigh and 12 in cross-country, huh? Thats why Norway will probably win the medal table and we wont. I know some pundits put their hope into team sprint because we have some decent sprint racers and we germans do better in team events anyway … 4 years ago we won a bronze in female team relay but there were still Claudia Nystad (retired) and Denise Herrmann (changed the sport) so we will hardly be able to repeat it. Sad story we used to be a big Cross-Country Skiing nation… I grew up with athletes like Sachenbacher, Teichmann, Sommerfeldt and Angerer.. We are miles away from this level
Prediction: I cant see any medal here…

Figure skating

No Idea… the naturalized pair should win us a medal here, I suppose? From what Ive heard they even have chance for gold, but I wouldnt bet on it
Prediction: 1 medal

Freestyle skiing

Heidi Zacher is a worldclass ski-crosser but sadly she got injured so I dont see any contender left.
Prediction: zero

Ice Hockey

The Scandinavians are too strong and then there are still USA and Canada

Prediction: nada

Luge

our domain..meanwhile in the female events we have a bit of competition. However, as far as I know Tatiana Ivanova wont go to Pyeongchang so we should surely aim a golden medal here + another medal. We have 2-3 contenders here. Felix Loch can win a gold in the male event, but I predict a silver medal. Ludwig and Langenhahn can also make a top 3 result.
In the double event we must win gold + another medal.
Team relay is a safe gold too if we dont mess it up

Prediction: 6 medals, 3 gold

Nordic combined

finally a sport I am familiar with. Olympics take place one year too late for our nordic combiners cause we were overwhelmingly dominant last season. Now we still have four world-class athletes, all of them lack consistency. But when you have 4 world class athletes you can still expect one of them winning a medal… so I hope we will win a medal in both individual events. Golden medal is realistic, but atm Watabe looks unvulnerable. And our athletes struggle with their ski jumping performances.
The team evens is a head-to-head-fight against Norway. Weve got 4 athletes in the top 11 of world cup. Norway’s got 4 athletes in the top 8 of world cup, though. Norway is favorized but I feel like we can surprise here

Prediction: 3 medals, 1 gold

Short Track

Did we ever do well here?

Prediction: nothing

Skeleton

the ugly little sister of luge. Although we are good at it, it rarely get broadcasted here. Our women are amazing, I expect gold here. Our men have improved lately and seem to be able to fight for the win, too.

Prediction: 3 medals, 1 gold

Ski Jumping

My favorite wintersport! Freitag returned in brilliant fashion after his injury and Wellinger is on fire, too. But I better contain my excitement.. The ski jumping competition is very balanced. Many jumpers have high ambitions and who knows the plans of the wind god… moreover, in the world cup they dont use normal hills anymore but only the large ones. So I guess the normal hills event tend to be “surprise bags”. Athletes with powerful jumps should benefit from the small hill rather than the “flyers” or “gliders”. Regarding team event… our team is amazing, we have two world-class jumpers but same can be said about Norway and Poland. We should head for the 1st place but shouldnt be disappointed about a 3rd place in any case. We must be careful of the Slovenian team. Austria and Japan shouldnt be a danger for us.
In the women event Karina Althaus should get a medal but I guess it wont be a golden one… The Norwegian girl Lundby is the new Takanashi of womans ski jumping so I consider her unstoppable.

Prediction: 3 medals, no gold

Snowboard

The IOC removed the slalom from the olympic schedule, thank god they maintained the giant slalom though. in the female GS race we have very good chances to win one, if not even two medals. Both Ramona Hofmeister and Selina Jörg are among the best starters here.
The men arent competitive enough.

Prediction: 1 medal

Speed Skating
The sport that makes Netherlands look like a huge winter sport nation in the medal table.
However, We are on decline here and still rely on 45-years old Claudia Pechstein. The longer the distance, the better her chances. She has so much experience, I believe she can do it again and win another medal. Women team relay is another chance for a medal, but Japan and Netherland probably take away 2 places already… I am sceptical here.
The men have been improving through the years but they arent good enough yet

Prediction: 1 medal

-------
In Total: 28 medals, 9 golden medals

Wow, 28 medals would be pretty amazing. I didnt expect to predict such a high number, I tried to be not too optimistic but this looks actualy too good to come true. 9 more than Sotchi.. then again, we should point out that Sotchi was a disaster for us. Whereas Ben’s prediction might be a little too careful, Jchans prediction looks very… bizarre 35 medals? That would be almost the level we had 2002 in Salt Lake City when our wintersport level was on its peak.. and we still had good cross country ski athletes But well… I’d take it when everything turns our perfect for us we can probably win 35 medals or more…
Anyway, I guess Norway will win the medal table but despite of that I still consider us the best wintersports nation in a way that we are competitive in almost every sport. In curling and short track we are not. but that’s all.. I think that both Norway and USA and every other nations are underdeveloped in more than one or two sports… tell me Norwegian luge and bob racers… or American ski-jumpers… you can get my point. I think we can be a little bit proud of having such a firm and broad basement in wintersports.

 

[JamieBrown]

Trendsetting

If we could now have wintersports fans from other nations, like Norway and the US and not only germans...

At least we have 3 different predictions, one optimistic, one pessimistic and the one that's hopefully realistic

 

[EscGeek]

My prediction is 1 silver and 1 bronze xwoo

 

[JChan]

[MENTION=12837]JamieBrown[/MENTION]

I have no idea why they are defunding biathlon. I think it's because we are really poor in both cross country skiing and biathlon and they want consolidate all our resources into one nordic sport. We've gotten better results in cross country skiing over the years, plus theres more grass roots support for it. It's a shame because I really think that biathlon is a lot more fun to watch. I have no idea if our ski jump team is going to become top-10 worthy it's just that it is super young right now. (Apart from Mackenzie Boyd Clowes)

The mens side of hockey is a total disaster this year. Essentially no NHL players are going EXCEPT at the beginning of the season a lot of Russian hockey players mysteriously failed to renew their contracts and went to play in Russia. Generally speaking, the nhl is considered a step up from the khl(russian league) mainly because the players are paid a lot more but Russian players still decided to leave. A lot of really great players left nhl teams and the Russian team is stacked. I would be shocked if russia won anything less then the gold. The womens hockey will be the best in the world though!!

I agree that the women's side of biathlon is very open this year (unlike the mens ugh) BUT I think Germany is easily the strongest relay nation and maybe Dalhmeier is trying to peak in February??

I really hope the Koreans do well. So far it looks like they are doing a fantastic job hosting the games. (Under budget, on time). Plus its been relatively controversially free, which is really refreshing after the past two games we've had.

 

[JamieBrown]

[MENTION=15333]JChan[/MENTION]

Ah. I see. Well, maybe it works out for Canada to focus on cross country instead of trying both, despite Nathan Smith being good for any surprise, I see Alex Harvey being a strong contender everyday (and his gold medal didn't come out of nowhere). But I also think Biathlon is far more interesting. I sometimes watch the sprint competitions in cross-country but that's it. Maybe I will turn on the mass start events, when I am awake and have nothing to do
About ski jumping, let's just wait for the next years then. I remember that Italy had to rebuild a team for the Torino olympics and 6-7 years later 2 of them were at least competitive. There already was a young canadian team at the olympics on your home soil, so I worry that being young and slightly talented is not enough in ski jumping. And probably all kids who could be big talents in ski jumping decide for hockey as it is the national sports, right?

Speaking I'm hockey I'm a little bitter I must say. I think the organisation I hate more right now is the NHL, as from what I heard they just wanted to make money with the olympics. As if they had have not enough already. Or am I missing something? I wouldn't blame the russians for transferring to KHL. They're literally worshipping the olympics. It was a tragedy they didn't won any medal 4 years ago in hockey and it's been the russian players like Ovechkin who first said they want to play at the olympics anyway (fuck NHL for punshing that). But what has happened is the best that can have happened for an "average" russian team, where I don't see many world class players next to Ovechkin and Malkin. At least these two are among the best, but they're missing anyway, so that KHL team will win and Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic and maybe Switzerland will fight for the other medals. I just hope that the viewing figures for NHL will be poorly during the olympics, due to people being fed up with watching hockey 24/7. At least the non-americans/canadians should have other interests. And we will have McDavid at the World Championships possibly.

 

[Malagant]

A Norwergian winter-sports interested voice was asked for here, so here I am

We may suck at many sports, but we are probably the greatest winter-sport nation of all time (quite an accomplishment considering the size of our country)

Looking forward to a glorious Winter Olympics (and many Norwegian medals and achievements) in Pyeongchang, South-Korea!

 

[Morty]

Some busy days ahead of me before the Olympics, but I'm going almost all-in on them. I've taken two weeks off work, just so I can sit at home, and watch the Olympics. But first, I have a party trip to Stockholm and Riga coming up the next weekend, but when I get home from that, it's all sports.

I'm not a typical Norwegian tho, and will watch very little cross-country skiing. My focus will be on the faster sports. Alpine skiing, skicross and snowboardcross, bob/skeleton (and maybe luge), short track skating, women's ski jumping, and maybe some biathlon. Those are my priorities, but in between those, I will probably watch whatever is on.

 

[ShoeFlo]

Some busy days ahead of me before the Olympics, but I'm going almost all-in on them. I've taken two weeks off work, just so I can sit at home, and watch the Olympics. But first, I have a party trip to Stockholm and Riga coming up the next weekend, but when I get home from that, it's all sports.

I'm not a typical Norwegian tho, and will watch very little cross-country skiing. My focus will be on the faster sports. Alpine skiing, skicross and snowboardcross, bob/skeleton (and maybe luge), short track skating, women's ski jumping, and maybe some biathlon. Those are my priorities, but in between those, I will probably watch whatever is on.

May I ask why you named women's ski jumping but not men's ski jumping?

by the way, I am pretty sure will win the medal table after all... I racked my brain over how Germany might beat you in this years olympics... I came to the conclusion the ski-jumping and nordic combined team events might tip the scales at the end. Norway is favorite in both but we have excellent chances too. if we just get the golden medal there, that could lift us up

 

[Morty]

May I ask why you named women's ski jumping but not men's ski jumping?

Well, over the years, I've gotten a bit fed up with men's ski jumping. There are a few things I dislike about the sport, which is making it less fun to watch. But the women haven't been able to do this for very long, and I think it's cool to watch them fly down the hills.

by the way, I am pretty sure will win the medal table after all... I racked my brain over how Germany might beat you in this years olympics... I came to the conclusion the ski-jumping and nordic combined team events might tip the scales at the end. Norway is favorite in both but we have excellent chances too. if we just get the golden medal there, that could lift us up

We might, but there are always some surprised at the Olympics, which could go both ways. I won't deny that it'd be fun if little Norway would win the medal table again, but I'm not demanding it. I hope for some nice battles tho, pretty much in all sports.

 

[Malagant]

Well, over the years, I've gotten a bit fed up with men's ski jumping. There are a few things I dislike about the sport, which is making it less fun to watch. But the women haven't been able to do this for very long, and I think it's cool to watch them fly down the hills.

I am quite the opposite. I have little to no interest in watching women's ski jumping (though it's fun that our Maren Lundby is among the best) while I find it exciting to watch men's ski jumping with its age-long (Norwegian) traditions, especially when Norway are doing great and have good medal-chances

I also love watching biathlon and especially cross country skiing (Norway's national winter sport ) and am very much looking forward to competitions in the Olympics, and will be cheering for Marit Bjørgen (the greatest female cross country skier of all time!

) and Johannes Høsflot Klæbo, our new ace!

 

[JamieBrown]

It seems like another factor is deciding the athletes conditions. Weather. They measured temperatures between -11 and .-17 ° C recently in the night, and some sports like Biathlon, popular only in Europe, will be held during that time.

This can also become a problem, since some sports are prohibited to run with temperatures under -20 ° C, some cross country and alpine skiing events apparently were cancelled even when it was a little "warmer". Well ski jumping will be held anyway, they're used to the cold as it comes up in finnish Lapland

 

[Morty]

I am quite the opposite. I have little to no interest in watching women's ski jumping (though it's fun that our Maren Lundby is among the best) while I find it exciting to watch men's ski jumping with its age-long (Norwegian) traditions, especially when Norway are doing great and have good medal-chances

I also love watching biathlon and especially cross country skiing (Norway's national winter sport ) and am very much looking forward to competitions in the Olympics, and will be cheering for Marit Bjørgen (the greatest female cross country skier of all time!

) and Johannes Høsflot Klæbo, our new ace!

Like I said, I'm not a typical Norwegian. I think there's too many cross-country competitions in the Olympics, and I figure the more dominant Norway are, the higher the chance that we'll have less cross-country events in the future Olympics.

The weather could cause some problems, altho it wouldn't be the first time. I still remember Nagano had loads of bad weather, altho I don't think that was because of the temperatures... I kinda hope the men's downhill will be postponed a day or so tho, mainly because that's my only chance of watching it live, as I won't get home until the evening (European time) on Sunday, but on the other hand, it would be nice for the Koreans if everything goes smooth these couple of weeks...

 

[Malagant]

Like I said, I'm not a typical Norwegian. I think there's too many cross-country competitions in the Olympics, and I figure the more dominant Norway are, the higher the chance that we'll have less cross-country events in the future Olympics.

I know Norwegians too who don't like cross-country skiing and other traditional sports (even some who don't enjoy football ) so we each have our own taste

As to the second part, I see your point, but personally I feel this 'anti-Norwegian' cross-country 'they are so dominant that we have to change the rules in their disfavour'-vibe that seems to have festered in Europe has got out of hand. Firstly, we are not that dominant say in men's cross-country skiing (yes we have some skiiers among the best - Sundby, Klæbo, before also Northug - but so do others), and the Swiss legend Dario Cologna could very well win several Golds in the Olympics, Canadians/Swedes/Russians may be up there in the medals as well. In women's cross country-skiing we are more dominant, but Sweden's Charlotte Kalla could well end up winning a Gold and possibly also Stina Nilsson in the sprint, we also have good skiiers from Finland, USA etc. and until recently Polish Justyna Kowalczyk was right up there at the top.

No one ever complained as the Netherlands totally dominated (especially men's) long distance speed-skating for 15 years or so until a couple seasons ago (they are still up there but now one among several favourites), no one said - "hey, we have to change the rules because the Dutch are so dominant..". No one complained in men's ski jumping when Austria dominated that sport for years on end until a couple seasons ago.. No one complained when Russia (USSR) were dominant in figure skating for years and years. My point is, some countries will dominate their sports - due to traditions, money, culture etc - and that should be accepted and possible before mass-complaining about unfairness, that it destroys the sport etc. and that rules must be changed to reduce the chance of this and that country winning.

It is not a given that the same countries will dominate the same sports over time. New countries will come on the scene, focus more (with more money and training) on certain sports and will achieve results. This diversity should be embraced, I think, but also a celebration of those countries who reach the top in their sports categories.

 

[ShoeFlo]

As a German I demand more luge events and less Cross Ski and Ice skating events

I dont mind the Dutch but it was ridicolous seeing them on 5th place in the medal table in Sotchi on par with huge traditional wintersport nations..and all that because they have amazing ice skaters. it just felt wrong. xD Luckily nowadays they dont look that dominant in ice skating... at least in the woman events the Japanese girls seem to dominate

 

[as78]

It was so interesting to read here some predictions and expectations about coming Olympics. Here is what I expect and will be following the most.

My favorite winter sports:
1. Biathlon
This is simply no.1. I strongly follow it since the 90's and it became a huge favorite for me. Hope in Pyeongchang it won't be just competition between Martin Fourcade and Johannes Thingnes Bø as it was throughout this season and other athletes can win gold there too. Would be nice to have some surprises and some underdogs to take medals.

At least in women's competition it's more open and there are more contenders. Really hope Kaisa Mäkäräinen can finally get her Olympic medal. She is my favorite biathlete. She even was the spokesperson in WorldVision once when I was Finland juror.

2. Ice hockey
Always remember myself following ice hockey. Sadly Latvia did not qualify this time after 4 consecutive participations and reaching quarterfinal in Sochi. I don't think this tournament will be less interesting without NHL players. Maybe even more exciting as there will be more competitive teams. I always prefer team work rather than big names.
I think the main favorites will be Russians. There could be some surprising team in semifinals or even medals. But I will be supporting Sweden.

3. Ski jumping
Even though this sport is not popular here and we don't compete there I always found interesting watching it. I usually cheer for Norwegians there, glad they have a good team this year, hope for some medals. Though I predict Kamil Stoch will win at least 1 gold again and maybe even in the team event Poland can win too.

4. Bobsleigh
This is sport what many follow here since Latvians are usually doing well. I think my favorite from sled sports. Hope for our guys doing well.

5. Figure skating
So beautiful to watch and especially if they choose great music too.

I'm following luge and skeleton as well since Latvia has success there. I like cross-country and alpine skiing too. And actually curling is interesting as well.
--------------
And now a review on Latvian team and what I expect from it. We have 34 competitors plus one reserve man in bobsleigh.

Flag bearer - Daumants Dreiškens, bobsleigh brakeman. He won silver in 4-man team with driver Oskars Melbārdis at Sochi (possible gold if Russian doping case will be finally confirmed). I think it's nice to give this honor to a brakeman as usually drivers have more glory but pushers do a hard work too.

Skeleton
8-time World Cup overall winner and 5-time World Champion Martins Dukurs still has no Olympic gold. In both last Olympics he won silver but was beaten by host country athletes.
And it seems this time the same will likely happen again. Korean Yun Sungbin is a huge favorite this season winning 5 World Cup stages and overall standings, he will have home track advantage as well. I believe that Martins can be faster that others so most likely it will be silver again.

Martins' brother Tomass could also fight for a medal. He was close at Sochi (4th), 3rd in this season's WC rankings, but there are other strong competitors - Germans, another Korean Kim and Russian Tregubov.

Our female skeleton racer Lelde Priedulēna was never on podium, she was a couple times 4th at World Cup stages. I think all medals there will be divided among German and Canadian athletes. If Lelde will finish in top-6 it will be good.

Bobsleigh
This season Germany and Canada look really strong, so it will be hard to win a medal though not impossible. Our both pilots Oskars Melbārdis and Oskars Ķibermanis were several times on podium this season but not regular. Last year in Pyeongchang when there was a World Cup stage Ķibermanis was 2nd in two-man and 3rd in 4-man event. I really hope for at least one medal for Latvia though I predict all medals in men's bobsleigh will go to Germany and Canada. There is also possible surprise from 2015-16 WC 2-man overall winner Won Yun-jong who missed most of this season, but he will compete at home track.

Luge
Latvia had 2 bronze medals there in Sochi - in doubles and team relay. Both are events of hopes this time too.
Brothers Andris and Juris Šics got medals in doubles in Vancouver too. They usually prepare well and do good at big events like Olympics and World Champs even though not so often get on podium at regular WC stages.
The big favorites there are both German duos and I believe they'll take gold and silver. Hope brothers Šics can be faster than Austrians Penz/Fischler and others too in the fight for bronze. We have another good doubles team too Gudramovičs/Kalniņš. They sometimes can surprise (both in good and bad way). Don't see them fighting for medals, but top-6 would be a great result.

In the team relay clear favorites are Germans again but there are several teams who can fight for the rest of medals - Austria, Latvia, Canada, USA, possibly Italy too. Russians will be weakened since Ivanova can't compete, but don't write off them either. There is usually more factor of luck in relay so hard to predict. Our male lugers did pretty well last year at World Cup stage in PyeongChang - Kristers Aparjods was 4th and Inārs Kivlenieks 5th. Hopefully they really like this track. Anything can happen, though looking real I don't see medals there. For female lugers top-8 would be good.

Biathlon
Andrejs Rastorgujevs is one of faster skiers among biathletes, but he usually doesn't do well at shooting. He has just 1 podium at World Cup stages (last season), many times were so close but always shooting betrayed him. Maybe if there will be windy conditions and many athletes will have bad shooting he has a chance.

Baiba Bendika could surprise too, especially in individual race as she sometimes can do clear shooting. Top-10 result would be great for her anyway.

Figure Skating
Latvian figure skater Deniss Vasiļjevs was 4th at European Championship this year but Olympics of course has much stronger competition with skaters from Asia and North America. And it will be his debut at Olympics. I hope Deniss can end up in top-10 and go for a medal after 4 years.
Our female skater Diāna Ņikitina will debute too. Just hope she can qualify for free skating.

Speed Skating
Here we have just 1 representative - Haralds Silovs. At Vancouver WOG he became the first who competed in both speed skating and short track (and did it on the same day). Now he competes only in speed skating. I think his favorite event is mass start where he can fight for a high place. He almost became European champion this year but due to mistake they had to skate one more lap.

Short track speed skating
Roberto Puķītis was 3rd at European Championship this year in 1000 m but this sport is dominated by Asians and North Americans too. Don't expect much there. Though in short track you never know... if you remember amazing win of Steven Bradbury in 2002.

We have competitors in cross-country skiing and alpine skiing too, but they won't fight for high places.

So overall prediction - 2 medals: silver in skeleton and bronze in luge (either doubles or team relay). Anything more will be really great, but less - unsuccessful.

Maybe I'll try later to make a prediction for number of medals for each country.