Ukraine safe qualifier Bulgaria safe qualifier Norway safe qualifier Belgium 
Poland uncertain Israel Switzerland hardly realistic Serbia Slovenia nearly impossible Macedonia uncertain Australia safe qualifier (but still no Eurovision country!) Latvia safe qualifier Denmark uncertain Ireland Lithuania Belarus Albania Georgia
is getting. Don't get me wrong its 4th in the poll and it is consistently named as a likely qualifier, but I feel like it could be fighting for the 1st place in semi 2. The song is great and has a really good message, but singer is also really good, confident and sings the song like Goodbye was made for her. Not sure what the performance will be like (I doubt it'll be similar to the video and if it is, the makeup will be toned down atleast), but rarely disappoints with staging, maybe 2011 was their low (but they must've underestimated the stage size that year). She'll easily do well with the juries aswell as certain 8-12 televoting points from , and .
Latvia is a great opener and people will remember the good song. Serbia's song has a meaningful message and will stand out between Belarus and Ireland. Australia is Australia, and has a lot of hype surrounding it. Ukraine, again, is Ukraine, and the song is unique and Jamala's vocals are flawless. Poland will appeal to a lot of viewers. Israel's rehearsals have shown a lot of improvement, and they're rising in the betting odds too. Bulgaria is almost safe, but Poli's dancing is just a cringefest. Norway has a fairly good song but the whole rhythm change could turn some off. Lithuania has a better song than a lot of people give credit for, but Donny needs to work on his live performance. Belgium will finish the show with a bang, and people will remember it. Macedonia will get the some of the regional votes, and Kaliopi's vocals are memorable, but the song is way too old for some. Switzerland has a good song, but will get lost between two better ballads. Denmark has a fairly vanilla song, and will most likely get lots of low-point scores from various countries, and it won't be enough. Georgia is unique, but depending on the performance, they might be battling for last place. Albania achieved 5th in JESC with a mediocre song, thanks to the draw, and they have that same draw now. Belarus is just terrible. Ireland is like Denmark, vanilla, but worse. Like, off-vanilla. Slovenia will definitely get lost between two favorites, Australia and Bulgaria, and the song just isn't memorable.
and being dark horses
95 % - Many will be happy to have the Ukraine back and Jamala is one of the strongest contenders in this year 90 % - I can't imagine the situation when Australia will not be announced, but there's the chance for every country 90 % - She get's one of the dark horses more and more. Top 10 in the final for sure, maybe even more. 85 % - The equivalent of Hungary in semi 1. Good performance, and the song seems solid as well. 80 % - She seems to be born for the Eurovision stage. Most likely she will perform twice. 80 % - Still a smaller favourite of the whole event to me. 75 % - Another vocal performance that will blew the masses away. 70 % - He knows what to do to get the votes. 60 % - Maybe she becomes a 2nd Mei Feingold, but she has the same bonus as the Ukraine, maybe even bigger. 60 % - It's not only the last spot, it's also the songs that will perform before her, so she can wake up the audience. 55 % - This is the first country we have to think about, when one of ones above will perform badly. 50 % - Like it or not, but Ireland is either going to follow the israeli history of the latest years or will be saved by some juries this time. 40 % - Despite being the most eurovisionary song of the evening, I still cannot see this qualifying and becoming another shocking NQ. 20 % - The possibility is there, that the audience will like this. Still an unlikely qualifier. 20 % - Only if the people get attracted by the show, even if they don't have to understand it. 15 % - She works quite okay until the ultimate chorus. Then she proves that she's far from being a 2nd Celine. 10 % - Albanians will vote for this, but no one else will like this bland plastic revamp. 5 % - The only possibility for a last place imo.
