Who will qualify from semi 2?

[i anixi]

Lativa is surely qualifying.

I know every one thinks so, but I'm sceptic. I know the Latvian princess wrote the song, but who among the public outside the esc bubbble is going to care about that?

 

[GermanBango]

I know every one thinks so, but I'm sceptic. I know the Latvian princess wrote the song, but who among the public outside the esc bubbble is going to care about that?

Well, the Semi is extremely weak ... it shouldn't be a big problem to qualify with a decent song

 

[i anixi]

Well, the Semi is extremely weak ... it shouldn't be a big problem to qualify with a decent song

Yes, that is also very true. But let's see: Australia, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine are solid songs and should be safe bets. Denmark, horrible as it may be, has its own niche in the public and its well done for what it is, should be safe too. I don't like Norway, but she's good at selling her number, shoud be through as well. Israel: he doesn't look too good and the song ends sort of feebly but it does build beautifully. Not too many ballads in the group, I'd say it's a possibility. Macedonia is not so great either, but there's some charm to it. Will they leave the diva out? Probably not, I say, but it's a long shot.
Now everybody is writing Belgium off, I wonder why that is? Song is fresh and lively, it is catchy enough, singer's attractive and charismatic... what's not to like? Of course she'll be in. That's 9 already and from now on it's anybody's game. Bulgaria, Georgia, even Ireland if he manages to sing his litle, easy, catchy tune correctly.

So you see, plenty of posssibility not to include Latvia in the end. Rehearsals shall tell and turn some of it upside down. What do your oracles say, by the way? i've been curious

 

[Matt]

A tad too early for predictions. The live performance, especially in this Semi, will be incredibly important so I have a feeling my Qualifiers will look slightly different in May. But I tried to come up with a list:

Australia
Bulgaria
FYR Macedonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Norway
Poland
Romania
Serbia
Ukraine

 

[GermanBango]

Yes, that is also very true. But let's see: Australia, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine are solid songs and should be safe bets. Denmark, horrible as it may be, has its own niche in the public and its well done for what it is, should be safe too. I don't like Norway, but she's good at selling her number, shoud be through as well. Israel: he doesn't look too good and the song ends sort of feebly but it does build beautifully. Not too many ballads in the group, I'd say it's a possibility. Macedonia is not so great either, but there's some charm to it. Will they leave the diva out? Probably not, I say, but it's a long shot.
Now everybody is writing Belgium off, I wonder why that is? Song is fresh and lively, it is catchy enough, singer's attractive and charismatic... what's not to like? Of course she'll be in. That's 9 already and from now on it's anybody's game. Bulgaria, Georgia, even Ireland if he manages to sing his litle, easy, catchy tune correctly.

So you see, plenty of posssibility not to include Latvia in the end. Rehearsals shall tell and turn some of it upside down. What do your oracles say, by the way? i've been curious

Guess we'll have to wait till rehearsals to find out
My oracles? Still haven't started to show them all the songs but I guess I'm gonna start next week or this weekend ... they have to be in a good mood because they usually hate it when I'm starting to talk about Eurovision

 

[i anixi]

Guess we'll have to wait till rehearsals to find out
My oracles? Still haven't started to show them all the songs but I guess I'm gonna start next week or this weekend ... they have to be in a good mood because they usually hate it when I'm starting to talk about Eurovision

People are so unoriginal no matter where they are

 

[DanielLuis]

I know every one thinks so, but I'm sceptic. I know the Latvian princess wrote the song, but who among the public outside the esc bubbble is going to care about that?

I don't say this just because the Latvian princess wrote the song I think it's one of the more original and different songs in the bunch, it will stand out and positively so. In my opinion last year's Latvian entry was better, but this one may have more wide appeal, and if Aminata finished 2nd in the semi I'm pretty sure Justs is qualifying as well.

 

[Jukica]

My predictions right now:
Australia
Bulgaria
Macedonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Norway
Poland
Romania
Serbia
Ukraine

 

[ES2011]

Is you look at the slaughter that is going to happen in semi 1, you just can be amazed how much mediocre songs will go the final in semi 2...........It's so extremely weak

and are already in

and would probably also manage to qualify if they nail the live performance (I know and will)

I guess since this semi is so waek and even will qualify.

And the last would be or .................Im going to say , but only if he improves his live performance.

 

[Mii11]

My simulation:
Jury
1. Ukraine - 195
2. Australia - 171
3. Latvia - 146
4. Bulgaria - 139
5. Norway - 102
6. Poland - 85
7. Israel - 82
8. Serbia - 82
9. FYR Macedonia - 81
10. Switzerland - 48
11. Romania - 41
12. Belarus - 25
13. Slovenia - 21
14. Lithuania - 17
15. Denmark - 12
16. Belgium - 9
17. Georgia - 8
18. Ireland - 7
19. Albania - 5

Televoting:
1. Latvia - 179
2. Ukraine - 149
3. Bulgaria - 130
4. Poland - 105
5. Norway - 86
6. FYR Macedonia - 77
7. Romania - 75
8. Serbia - 74
9. Lithuania - 67
10. Australia - 63
11. Belarus - 53
12. Switzerland - 50
13. Israel - 46
14. Belgium - 27
15. Slovenia - 26
16. Georgia - 24
17. Denmark - 20
18. Albania - 16
19. Ireland - 9

Total:
1. Ukraine - 344
2. Latvia - 325
3. - 269
4. Australia - 234
5. Poland - 190
6. Norway - 188
7. FYR Macedonia - 158
8. Serbia - 156
9. Israel - 128
10. Romania - 116
11. Switzerland - 98
12. Lithuania - 84
13. Belarus - 78
14. Slovenia - 47
15. Belgium - 36
16. Georgia - 32
17. Denmark - 32
18. Albania - 21
19. Ireland - 16

If this turned out to be true, then would make it to the final.
This means that we would have to say goodbye to () and

 

[Kairit]

... So the same as pretty much for everyone. Instead of / it could be / imo.

EDIT: Well, Romania is axed so I'll say

 

[Nikkita]

After the draws are announced, it seems like will probably be in finals, possibly with and .

 

[QwaarJet]

Final predictions until rehearsals are over.

Latvia
Serbia
Ireland
Lithuania
Australia
Romania
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Norway
Belgium

I have Belgium making it because of the draw.

 

[carl1]

- these 8 are definite qualifiers for me
will fight out for the last 2 places

 

[DaFlo]

After draw prediction:

 

[Kitakaze]

This semi final is a little trickier to predict in terms of who'll win and it's also slightly more open at the other end of the top 10. Still early days but I think:

1. Australia
2. Latvia
3. Ukraine
Gap
4. Bulgaria
5. Serbia
6. Norway
Gap
7. Lithuania
8. Poland
Gap
9. Belgium
10. Israel
11. Denmark
12. Switzerland
Gap
13. FYR Macedonia
14. Romania
15. Belarus
16. Ireland
Gap
17. Georgia
18. Slovenia
19. Albania

No need to say too much about the top ones. I think Australia will probably be the common jury and televote favourite. Latvia and Ukraine will no doubt do extremely well with the juries but I can see the running order being a small factor hindering Latvia in the televotes. Likewise, given how musically divisive 1944 is, I don't expect Ukraine to do quite as well in the televote as the former two. It'll be close though.

I see Bulgaria, Serbia, Norway and to a lesser extent, Lithuania and Poland as safe qualifiers.

At the other end, I think Belgium will be the surprise qualifier along with Israel. I know it's easy to overanalyse the running order but I wouldn't have given Belgium a chance before the draw was announced. In light of that, they now have a huge advantage going last. I also think following Georgia and Albania is almost as important. The contrast between Albania and Belgium would've been even greater had Albania gone with the original, feisty version. Still, there's no doubt the fun-loving, upbeat nature of the song will work in her favour in that position. I don't know whether the recent terror attacks will influence the voting at all but it could well make all the difference between 9th and 12th spot for them. Given the right staging and if she's vocally on point, Laura's skills as a performer are another aspect working in her favour.

I'm always scared to pick Israel as a qualifier as they've been robbed of the final so many times. But continuing on from last year's success, I just have a feeling they'll scrape through. Denmark could easily do just as well in the televote and it's hard not to see them getting through as we know they've always done well whenever Sweden have hosted. But I don't think they stand as much a chance of featuring in any jury top 10s, as I think Israel would. Had Israel been drawn in the second half of this semi, they'd be a lot more likely IMO. I still think they have the edge though.

A lot of people seem convinced Romania and FYR Macedonia will qualify which surprises me. As with Greece, I'm fairly sure Romania's qualifying run is up. Romania will no doubt pick up a considerable amount of diaspora votes from Italy and neighbours Serbia, Bulgaria and Ukraine at best but surely that won't be enough. The song itself is so unmemorable, dated and dull and it's got nothing going for it that's going to make people in 18 other countries pick up the phone/SMS. IMO, the only reason stopping this from finishing last is the fact it's Romania. I can also see the juries slaughtering it, if they could. But it surely won't be in many of their top 10s, if at all.

As for FYR Macedonia, it'd be a pretty astonishing achievement if Kalopi did qualify. People forget she finished 9th and only barely qualified last time. Dona is nowhere near as good and the song alone isn't contemporary, memorable or engaging enough as a ballad to get much of a following behind it outside Serbia, Slovenia, Albania and Bulgaria. There isn't much working to their advantage other than Kalopi's semi-star factor in those areas. As with Bosnia & Herzegovina, the language issue could be another factor as it usually is. Definitely an outsider IMO.

Honestly, if the song alone was the deciding factor I think Switzerland ought to be in the final. I'm praying Rykka will go through but there's many factors working against her, the most important being her draw. If she picks her vocals up and does something interesting with the staging, I like her chances much more.

 

[DanielLuis]

The worst factor going against Switzerland is Rykka's vocals. If she sang well live they would have chances to qualify, the song is good, but Rykka sounds so amateurish live. If she doesn't get better til May she won't stand a chance, wether she'd be #19 or #03 in the running order.

 

[Kitakaze]

Yes, the vocals are a big factor, but particularly because she's wedged between Poland and Israel who are likely to be flawless. I think the running order is the worst thing going against her in that sense. Having said that, judging from the Amsterdam concert video put up yesterday, she actually seems to have improved a great deal all of a sudden. Here's hoping she's become more confident and can keep it up to that standard next month.

 

[arlekino]

It's very clear to me that Ukraine is going to win this semi final and Russia the first one.

 

[ayzelto]

My prediction:

1. Ukraine
2. Latvia
3. Australia
4. Serbia
5. Poland
6. Denmark
7. Bulgaria
8. Lithuania
9. FYR Macedonia
10. Israel

11. Belgium
12. Romania
13. Belarus
14. Ireland
15. Norway
16. Switzerland
17. Georgia
18. Slovenia