Who will qualify from semi 1?
- Thread starter Chorizo
- Start date
- Watchers 11
Safe-zone
Battle-zone
Near-death-zone
(No Romanian support, No Ukrainian support but maybe Russia will help it a bit; sadly their 4th and 5th points contributors are gone - Belarus and Portugal; I see Spain is voting here though)
Dead-zone
(however they might receive a 12 from Bosnia and score some points from Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary)
Battle-zone
Near-death-zone
(No Romanian support, No Ukrainian support but maybe Russia will help it a bit; sadly their 4th and 5th points contributors are gone - Belarus and Portugal; I see Spain is voting here though)Dead-zone
(however they might receive a 12 from Bosnia and score some points from Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary)
QwaarJet
ESC Moderator
Nailed on qualifiers : Armenia, Croatia, Russia, Iceland
Likely qualifiers : Hungary, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Cyprus, Estonia
Borderline : Czech Republic, Netherlands, Austria
Unlikely qualifiers : Finland, Greece, Moldova
No chance in hell : Montenegro, San Marino
Here are my qualifiers :
Armenia
Croatia
Russia
Iceland
Hungary
Azerbaijan
Bosnia
Cyprus
Estonia
Czech Republic
Will adjust after Malta.
Likely qualifiers : Hungary, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Cyprus, Estonia
Borderline : Czech Republic, Netherlands, Austria
Unlikely qualifiers : Finland, Greece, Moldova
No chance in hell : Montenegro, San Marino
Here are my qualifiers :
Armenia
Croatia
Russia
Iceland
Hungary
Azerbaijan
Bosnia
Cyprus
Estonia
Czech Republic
Will adjust after Malta.
FoxOfShadows
Well-known member
- Joined
- September 19, 2013
- Posts
- 1,532
In The Final Already
Very Likely
Likely
Borderline
Unlikely
No Hope
Very Likely
Likely
Borderline
Unlikely
No Hope
Cyberbliss
Member
Most likely:
Just one breath away to the top:
Medium raw:
(which I would so much like to be IN but they seem to be quite alone this year too)
Low chance:
Say bye-bye:
As for: If it was only for Ira, I wouldn't even watch her on stage so it's a big NO. The song really has to be a masterpiece to convince me.
Just one breath away to the top:
Medium raw:
(which I would so much like to be IN but they seem to be quite alone this year too)Low chance:
Say bye-bye:
As for
: If it was only for Ira, I wouldn't even watch her on stage so it's a big NO. The song really has to be a masterpiece to convince me.
ParadiseES
Well-known member
This one is the strongest semifinal ever since almost all of the strongest entries came here, so there will be a lot of drama that day, but anyway...
Qualifiers:
Should qualify but if there will be any surprise, it will come from here:
The next ones to come in case someone else fucks up:
Then:
Then:
No hope: (unless some miracle comes with the new song)
They must be happy if they get more than 0 points:
Qualifiers:
Should qualify but if there will be any surprise, it will come from here:
The next ones to come in case someone else fucks up:
Then:
Then:
No hope:
(unless some miracle comes with the new song) They must be happy if they get more than 0 points:
JamieBrown
Well-known member
All in case the maltese entry is weak...
Safe
Almost safe
Borderline
Needing luck
Almost out
Out
My 10 for now
Safe
Almost safe
Borderline
Needing luck
Almost out
Out
My 10 for now
Standard qualifiers no matter what they send:
Good songs sure to qualify
Epic battle to survive
One leg in the grave
Already out
So unlucky we are in a Semi with all the standard qualifying countries, this Semi is sooo much stronger then the second it's just ridiculous.
Good songs sure to qualify
Epic battle to survive
One leg in the grave
Already out
So unlucky we are in a Semi with all the standard qualifying countries, this Semi is sooo much stronger then the second it's just ridiculous.
ParadiseES
Well-known member
After a more detailed analysis of how every entry would score in televoting and juries this is my prediction now:
- Russia will clearly win the televote, but will not score so high in the juries, so they will easily qualify, but won't win the semi. Croatia seems the obvious winner then, cause I can see "Lighthouse" winning the jury vote and coming right after Russia in the televote.
- Hungary, Armenia, Iceland, Czech Republic, Azerbaijan (and of course Russia) will take the following places. They are 100% safe.
- Then, Cyprus will not score so high, but it will be enough to qualify.
- I can see Netherlands being saved by the juries.
- The place left will be between Moldova, Greece (both in top-10 for televoters but low for juries) or Austria, which I think will be in the middle of the road. Bosnia might be there too if their ex-Yugo and diaspora vote is high to compensate the juries. I'd bet on Moldova though.
- San Marino will be dead last and wouldn't be surprised if it's with nul points.
(This could change if the Maltese entry is strong enough to compete)
- Russia will clearly win the televote, but will not score so high in the juries, so they will easily qualify, but won't win the semi. Croatia seems the obvious winner then, cause I can see "Lighthouse" winning the jury vote and coming right after Russia in the televote.
- Hungary, Armenia, Iceland, Czech Republic, Azerbaijan (and of course Russia) will take the following places. They are 100% safe.
- Then, Cyprus will not score so high, but it will be enough to qualify.
- I can see Netherlands being saved by the juries.
- The place left will be between Moldova, Greece (both in top-10 for televoters but low for juries) or Austria, which I think will be in the middle of the road. Bosnia might be there too if their ex-Yugo and diaspora vote is high to compensate the juries. I'd bet on Moldova though.
- San Marino will be dead last and wouldn't be surprised if it's with nul points.
(This could change if the Maltese entry is strong enough to compete)
Adeline
Active member
This semi is so much harder to predict than the other.
I think the following countries are safe:
(will do well with televote, less so with juries, but still sail through easily)
(I haven't heard live vocals yet, but the song itself is strong enough)
(vocals could be a problem, but the song is outstanding enough to easily make it)
(it won't do as well as expected, but making the final would be easy)
(I don't see why this song is so unpopular; B&H has a perfect track record when it comes to qualifying and the song is decent. I don't think it will struggle to qualify at all)
The following countries will very likely make it, but I still have some doubts:
(it all depends on the vocals; with a bad live this will be a potential trainwreck. Then again it's Armenia who nearly qualified with the awful Boom Boom in 2011, so qualification is still very likely)
(the song has enough support on Youtube and fansites, but I'm not too sure the masses at home will fall for it)
(the song will stand out amidst the rest, but I'll have to await the live performance and staging. Songs like these are usually not that easy to translate to stage)
These countries will battle it out for the remaining places:
(I have a feeling this one will be 'forgotten', especially with a bad draw)
(the song is ok, but it seems that Azerbaijan sends the same type of song every year and I have the feeling I'm not the only one who's a bit tired of that given the decline in their success since 2014. As there are some strong contenders in this semi this might be the first time Azerbaijan will miss the final.)
(it's a decent song, but it might struggle due to Croatia having a better and less generic ballad. It would be nice to see them in the final though.)
(I find the song absolutely awful and many others seem to agree with me, but given Greece's perfect qualification track record I won't rule them out yet)
(unfortunately I think we will struggle. Douwe is a good live singer, so I'm not worried about that. Slow Down is the only song of its kind in this semi so that's a plus as well, but I think we need very good staging to stand out as the second half of the song is quite repetitive. I'll keep my fingers crossed.)
No chance:
(the live vocals are a bit wobbly and I'm afraid the song is not good enough compared with the others to have a chance at making it to the final)
(too alternative to win over the masses)
(no comment. I agree with others here that it might even get 0 points.)
Now we'll have to wait and see what will do. Chameleon was a 'no chance' for me, so if the new song will be better this semi will be even more difficult to predict.
I think the following countries are safe:
(will do well with televote, less so with juries, but still sail through easily) (I haven't heard live vocals yet, but the song itself is strong enough) (vocals could be a problem, but the song is outstanding enough to easily make it) (it won't do as well as expected, but making the final would be easy) (I don't see why this song is so unpopular; B&H has a perfect track record when it comes to qualifying and the song is decent. I don't think it will struggle to qualify at all)The following countries will very likely make it, but I still have some doubts:
(it all depends on the vocals; with a bad live this will be a potential trainwreck. Then again it's Armenia who nearly qualified with the awful Boom Boom in 2011, so qualification is still very likely) (the song has enough support on Youtube and fansites, but I'm not too sure the masses at home will fall for it) (the song will stand out amidst the rest, but I'll have to await the live performance and staging. Songs like these are usually not that easy to translate to stage)These countries will battle it out for the remaining places:
(I have a feeling this one will be 'forgotten', especially with a bad draw) (the song is ok, but it seems that Azerbaijan sends the same type of song every year and I have the feeling I'm not the only one who's a bit tired of that given the decline in their success since 2014. As there are some strong contenders in this semi this might be the first time Azerbaijan will miss the final.) (it's a decent song, but it might struggle due to Croatia having a better and less generic ballad. It would be nice to see them in the final though.) (I find the song absolutely awful and many others seem to agree with me, but given Greece's perfect qualification track record I won't rule them out yet) (unfortunately I think we will struggle. Douwe is a good live singer, so I'm not worried about that. Slow Down is the only song of its kind in this semi so that's a plus as well, but I think we need very good staging to stand out as the second half of the song is quite repetitive. I'll keep my fingers crossed.)No chance:
(the live vocals are a bit wobbly and I'm afraid the song is not good enough compared with the others to have a chance at making it to the final) (too alternative to win over the masses) (no comment. I agree with others here that it might even get 0 points.)Now we'll have to wait and see what
will do. Chameleon was a 'no chance' for me, so if the new song will be better this semi will be even more difficult to predict.
GermanBango
Well-known member
Semi 1 is gonna be a bloodbath ... such a pity that almost all the good songs and most of the sure qualifiers are in this Semi while Semi 2 is probably one of the weakest ever.
JamieBrown
Well-known member
Safe
Almost safe
Borderline
Needing luck
Almost out
Out
My 10 for now
Add
to the Borderline. Gosh. What an unbalanced semi allocation we have this time :|
I don't think you guys should count Malta out. Even if the televoters don't give it many points, if the juries give Malta lots of points like usual then it can still qualify. With the new system, you don't necessarily have to do well with both. That's why I see Armenia as a sure qualifier, unfortunately. The ones that could be in the most danger are the ones that do "okay" with both. I could see Estonia or Bosnia being one of those and missing out. I'm even worried about Croatia but hopefully it will have a very memorable live performance.