I think
could really flop.
Ukraine and Iceland will have projections/3D mapping as well, so why would Russia win because of the staging as many people expect? The votes of those that are impressed by this kind of staging will be split between these countries. The juries will probably prefer something else because they don't want a winner that reminds people of last year's winner. It doesn't matter if it's objectively justified to call this staging a copy of last year. It only matters that people see it this way. Since Greta was called a copycat, it will be no different in Sergey's case. We still have to see how Greta's staging was changed and Jamala's staging might be more creative than Sergey's.
I think the preview shows indicate that the (Western) juries will not put Russia on top of their rankings. That might happen in countries in which Sergey is a big star but last year, Polina wasn't supported by all countries where she's famous and the same thing could happen this year. The song isn't strong enough anyway. Even Sergey's fans keep talking about the staging and the diaspora and his fame in the ex-USSR to explain why they expect him to win.
The odds could change again but some bookies have already put France in first place and the difference between France and Russia is generally minimal. If France has good staging and solid vocals, I think France will become the clear favorite.