Who is a real contender for the victory?

[aef]

We had this thread before and I couldn’t find one for 2023. Let‘s talk about who is in for the victory this year.

Personally I find it hard to think about not winning by a landslide. I don’t want it to happen but the juries will probably give 300+ points to and televoters 200+. Please give me your arguments against a victory if you have some. („People won’t vote for something that is not new“ is not an argument in my opinion)

will have high televote support but not so much jury support. could probably do only mediocre with televoters and even worse with juries, I’m afraid (still enough for top 10 though). will probably have a very good televoting result but a low jury result.

And talking about and I really, really don’t see them inside the top 10. I think people that see them as contenders are crazy. It’s more likely that they are bottom 5 than top 5 tbh.

 

[ESC94]

I think in the televote will be the strongest competitor of , it will then depend on by how much Loreen is winning the jury vote on who´s going to win in the end. The jurys are sometimes a real blackbox.

 

[aef]

I think in the televote will be the strongest competitor of , it will then depend on by how much Loreen is winning the jury vote on who´s going to win in the end. The jurys are sometimes a real blackbox.

The problem is that I can’t see enough competition for Loreen in the jury vote, I can’t imagine anyone scoring decent enough there AND also in the televote! Even if would get between 100 and 150 points from the juries which would be more than I expect, it wouldn’t be enough for 1st place.

 

[ESC94]

The problem is that I can’t see enough competition for Loreen in the jury vote, I can’t imagine anyone scoring decent enough there AND also in the televote! Even if would get between 100 and 150 points from the juries which would be more than I expect, it wouldn’t be enough for 1st place.

We have to wait and see what happens.

 

[DirtyFalcon]

We had this thread before and I couldn’t find one for 2023. Let‘s talk about who is in for the victory this year.

Personally I find it hard to think about not winning by a landslide. I don’t want it to happen but the juries will probably give 300+ points to and televoters 200+. Please give me your arguments against a victory if you have some. („People won’t vote for something that is not new“ is not an argument in my opinion)

will have high televote support but not so much jury support. could probably do only mediocre with televoters and even worse with juries, I’m afraid (still enough for top 10 though). will probably have a very good televoting result but a low jury result.

And talking about and I really, really don’t see them inside the top 10. I think people that see them as contenders are crazy. It’s more likely that they are bottom 5 than top 5 tbh.

What makes you think Spain and France will be bottom 5 ? I personnally think they are interesting enough at least for the juries to be pushed into the left hand side of the scoreboard. They both have really interesting elements for juries. Considering how weak Semi 2 is, i can easily see Spain and France going higher than only bottom 5 thanks to that draw.

Televoting is another thing.

 

[Citelis]

Yes i also think that France and Spain have potential but they are not contenders for the victory. It's between Sweden and Finland unless Ukraine or Italy goes much stronger than we expect but this is very unlikely to happen.

 

[ayzelto]

I also think the final result will be between Sweden and Finland. The first winning the jury vote and the second winning the televote. However, I don't see the juries placing Finland high enough to make them win, while Sweden will do well in the televote, I am sure.

Spain and France won't be bottom. France will probably flop in the televotes but the jury support will be enough to skip the bottom 5. The Spanish scenario remains a mistery but the odds speak by themselves: 5th place (and she will take over Norway very soon). I understand that those who don't like the song don't see the potential in Blanca, but her performance and voice are flawless, enough to sneak into the top 5 tbh. I think the country that will perform the worst among the big 5 will be the UK.

Another possible contender I see is Austria. They proved to be good live and a top 5 is more than possible.

How the televote will support Ukraine this time is a mystery, but a top 5 is also possible if the support is enough.

Having said that, my prediction for the top 5 is: Sweden, Finland, Ukraine, Spain and Austria, with Loreen winning the whole thing by a considerable margin.

The top 10 will be completed by Norway, Italy, Israel, Moldova and Armenia/Slovenia.

 

[aef]

What makes you think Spain and France will be bottom 5 ? I personnally think they are interesting enough at least for the juries to be pushed into the left hand side of the scoreboard. They both have really interesting elements for juries. Considering how weak Semi 2 is, i can easily see Spain and France going higher than only bottom 5 thanks to that draw.

Televoting is another thing.

I guess and will end somewhere around 15th place, I was just trying to say that if I had to place a bet for example I would rather bet on bottom 5 than top 5.

could easily have a 2022 result. Televoters definitely won’t support this and concerning the juries, it’s probably also too different for them. An outcome like 40-100 points from juries and 20-50 points from televoting seems like the most realistic scenario to me.

As for I really think that this disco beat isn’t doing the song any favor. What is this song supposed to be? Retro? Modern? It’s one of those song that ends as a trainwreck somewhere in the middle of nowhere, between all genres and music eras. 2021 was a really good classic chanson while I’m pretty sure that neither juries nor televoters will care much about this year. Especially for the televoters it‘s not accessible and memorable enough.

About : Top 5 is very likely. They will still get a high sympathy boost in televoting, not as high as last year but still very high.

 

[Realest]

Only and .

It will be a very one-sided Televote like 2017 were the Top2 get around 30% of all the Votes.

 

[MopManMoss]

Who are we kidding Loreen is winning again I wish she wasn’t but it is a done deal

 

[AndroZeus]

The top 3 in the odds are Sweden, Finland and Ukraine. None of us know any better than that. None. Of. Us.

 

[Looren]

I only see three contenders :

 

[Bobjan FR]

My tier list :

S (Biggest potential winner) : Finland, Sweden
A (medium potential winner) : Norway, Austria, France, Spain
B : (small potential winner) : UK, Czechia, Slovenia, Italy, Israel, Ukraine
C : (Won't win, but may hit hard) : Serbia, Armenia, Croatia, Australia
D : (Won't win but may finish mid) : Moldova, Georgia, Estonia, Cyprus, Albania, Lituania, Greece,
E : (Won"t win and may struggle to qualify) : Portugal, Poland, Netherlands, Iceland, Azerbaidjan, Denmark, Belgium, Ireland
F : (probably dead in semi-final) : San Marino, Romania, Malta
?? : (Won't win, but anything else can happen) : Switzerland, Latvia, Germany

 

[aef]

It’s a pitty that it seems like the second year with an obvious winner in a row, open years are always so cool!

 

[Deleted member 12761]

It's between , or imo. I think Sweden is going to win and I think she has the potential to win both the jury and the televote. My fave is Spain but I think Sweden is just too strong. I'm okay with that tho. I love Loreen and she deserves it and I will also vote for her (and Spain).

 

[Ezio]

Sweden, Spain, Italy, Ukraine. None of them wins jury or televote.

Norway and Finland are imaginary giants imho. Norway could be beaten by Denmark.

Austria and Finland will be dead after jury vote, although they could be the Top 2 in the televote. Jury winner could be a random ballad that has no chance in televote.

 

[Chrisiam]

I'm going to be honest, whilst I feel that it will end up coming down to Finland vs Sweden I don't really buy the idea that this is an open-and-shut win for Sweden. A lot of this will come down to placement and who exactly gets in but I can see this being a far closer thing than a lot of people are giving it credit for.

I can see Finland, Austria, and possibly Norway doing well with the televote which will only narrow any Swedish lead. This lead will get narrower if we get people giving a nod to Ukraine in solidarity. Possibly even more so if an act goes viral in the lead into the contest. And if the people at home really "get" Croatia that will run riot in the televote. There is also the possibility that Aremina's success online might not just be domestic fans and a sign of wider international interest. Whilst I don't think either will win over all they will take a lot of the air away from Sweden (and Finland) as far as final scores are concerned.

Judges might favour Sweden over Finland. But given we haven't see music like Finland's at the contest it is hard to say. It could crash and burn, or they could really get behind it and put it ahead of Sweden. There is also Spain and France to contend with too. And Italy is always a reliable judge's favourite. Plus I can see them giving points to the UK and Ukraine as a "Thanks for the show" kind of deal. Not enough to win, but enough to pull things back for other acts.

And all this is without taking into consideration that any of the acts mentioned have a bad judge's/final performance or a terrible running order slot. Or again one of the songs being a sleeper hit or going viral a week ahead of the contest.

Whilst Sweden does feel like a safe bet, I really don't see the final winner having a massive lead. I can see this easily coming down to the final three sets of points.

 

[JenJen94]

For me:
Sweden, Finland, Spain, Norway and I'm gonna throw France into the mix for this too! I'd be very surprised to see any of this bunch finish outside the top 5. Although I think Sweden is winning this year, absolutely.

 

[aef]

I truly can’t believe this, and are mentioned by so many of you, I must be living in a parallel universe

 

[AndroZeus]

I truly can’t believe this, and are mentioned by so many of you, I must be living in a parallel universe

The best live vocalist and the prettiest outfit, idk, doesn't seem too outlandish. I guess we'll see in a month's time