The Draw

[tuorem]

So let's go back one year in time. It is true that Cyprus was placed right after Sweden. And not many people would have bet money on Cyprus. But I claim that most 2015 entires would werent concidered to be real contenders for the victory; so most entries would make "Sweden shine", I guess?
Norway was placed right before Sweden. A top 10 result for Norway was not a big surprise I think. So why didnt EBU put a "weaker" song before Sweden as well as after? And what about Norway - would they have ended even higher had they been followed not by Sweden, but by f.ex Austria??

On the other hand; Belgium was placed right after Australia. Two entries that were both mentioned on beforehand. And both did very well. Do you think these two lost votes because they were placed together? Could they have achieved even better results if they didn't try to "outshine" oneanother??

It just seems to me that many people in here are reading the running order with a very biased mind... One can always find "proof" or support for one's own theories or assumptions... So yes - I need proof; hard facts; in this case statistics.

In my opinion, Sweden shone because of the "late" starting position, the fact they were surrounded by two very slow songs, and they even had a break especially designed for them, so they definitely had very favorable circumstances to do well. I'm not sure the impact would have been the same had they opened the final or performed after Serbia for instance.

Norway reached the top 10 thanks to the juries, who aren't affected by the draw. Actually, they were 17th in televoting, so it wasn't that great. I'm not sure they could have done better elsewhere because - despite their inherent qualities - very few slow songs succeed in standing out.

Cyprus performed afterwards to separate Sweden from Australia, it's pretty simple. As for Australia and Belgium, that's right, both did very well, even though I'm skeptical about Australia's success last year, which wasn't purely musical to me, but also like a thank you for their alleged "first and last" participation. People couldn't forget they were there.

People (like me) are just sharing their opinions about the draw, which was made by human beings with biased minds, and is thus subject to debates. I would never have this discussion had it been a random draw. Thinking that everything is purely made for the sake of entertainment - without any ulterior motive - (like the draws in Melfest) would be naive imo, considering the shady peak the contest has known in 2013. But I'm merely replying to you while expressing my opinion, right? You know there aren't any statistics about that.

 

[VikingTiger]

I absolutely agree with this, many people are just biased to see favouritism and conspiracies in this kind of thing. If they put favourites together they will say "they're trying to kill their chances", if they put the favourites apart with other songs between them "they're being so unfair to the songs placed around the favourites".

I think what matters is that the shows have indeed been more balanced these last few years.

I couldnt agree more!! 2009 is my favourite year in ESC. But the final allocation in the final was very inbalanced.... The first half of the final contained a lot of ballads and slow songs. And almost all the uptempo songs were in the second half. I dont think this did any good to neither the slow nor the up-tempo songs.

 

[VikingTiger]

But I'm merely replying to you while expressing my opinion, right? You know there aren't any statistics about that.

...and I am just expressing my own opinion on the matter. . Hmmm... I will have one year off from work from May and onwards... maybe I should dedicate 12 months to make some statistics to get to the bottom of this!! hehe...

 

[Hele.]

How is it unfair?! Someone has to be 2nd no matter if it is random or decided upon producers. In the end the best song is going to win, not the starting position. The produced draw is here for a reason, to prevent a 2011 situation (you don't really want to open a show with a ballad) and there we're 3 slow songs after each other (France, Italy, Switzerland)

To be honest this #2 is just ridiculous. There is nothing wrong with that starting position, it is all just bogus. In 2011 the country that got the most had #2 as starting position (Bosnia & Herzegovina)

I did not speak as performing 1st or 2nd (or any other starting position) nominally now. Those starting positions are in "generally" bad. There are always exceptions and great ballads also can open the show! Remember Croatia in 1998 or Serbia in 2012.
This producers thing is not fair as last year they were favoring countries that were favorites giving them best positions in their halfs and they are repeating same this year. Why Sweden, Australia, Belgium, Russia, Italy last year and again Australia, Russia, Malta this year got amazing positions? This results that all songs doesn't stand same chance to get fair draw and that is disturbing, not fact "someone has to perform 2nd or 3rd".

No, I do not care if 3 slow songs will perform one after each other, using "your" (and anyone else) argument (which I also agree too), if song is good enough it will stand out. So producers doesn't need to decide when it will perform (as if song is good enough it will stand out anyway).

Of course someone needs to perform 2nd or 3rd (I think this one qualify somewhere in around only 29% of cases), but you can't deny statistics and ignore songs on those positions are qualifying less. And songs in top half generally qualify in 40% of cases in comparative of 60% of second half.

You say example of Bosnia & Herzegovina getting most 12s in 2011 starting at 2nd position. And should we analyze on which positions perform songs who got most 12s in all other years. There will always be exceptions but general conclusions are not made on exceptions but on general outcomes. And general outcomes are that if song stands out will do well not matter what but general outcome is also that songs with later positions are doing better. Proved by statistics. And that's why no one should intermeddle into making draws.

 

[tuorem]

...and I am just expressing my own opinion on the matter. . Hmmm... I will have one year off from work from May and onwards... maybe I should dedicate 12 months to make some statistics to get to the bottom of this!! hehe...

Now you're kidding me Ok, I look forward to your in-depth study of the correlation between starting position, surrounding songs and likelihood of doing well It should be enlightening even though it shouldn't take long before one realizes there's nothing innocent in decided draws.

 

[Vespertine]

ESCInsight now has an article analyzing the draw:

http://escinsight.com/2016/04/08/semi-final-2016-running-order-winners/

 

[GRE]

I wonder if Bulgaria takes place right after Slovenia, or will there be a change in the draw ?

 

[tuorem]

I wonder if Bulgaria takes place right after Slovenia, or will there be a change in the draw ?

On Eurovision.tv, they stated that the order of the semi would not change. So yes, Bulgaria will perform right after Slovenia.

 

[FoxOfShadows]

Interesting to see the final running order. I predict that Belgium will open (we need an uptempo song to open the show and it's either Belgium, France or Bulgaria). I think Belgium will be chosen over the other two because France is a favourite and this is only Bulgaria's second time in the final. No idea who'll close the grand final although I'm kind of hoping for Georgia. I think it'll be an explosive end

 

[Jacketh]

When is it announced?

 

[ParadiseES]

I think or will open the show. My prediction:

01- THE NETHERLANDS
02- GERMANY
03- AZERBAIJAN
04- CZECH REPUBLIC
05- BELGIUM
06- POLAND
07- ITALY
08- AUSTRALIA
09- SWEDEN
10- ISRAEL
11- BULGARIA
12- HUNGARY
13- FRANCE
14- ARMENIA
15- UNITED KINGDOM
16- SERBIA
17- RUSSIA
18- AUSTRIA
19- LITHUANIA
20- UKRAINE
21- MALTA
22- GEORGIA
23- CROATIA
24- CYPRUS
25- SPAIN
26- LATVIA

 

[Uvaro]

When is it announced?

the woman at the press conference said it would be up in a few hours

 

[Rayman]

1-Belgium
2-Israel
3-Bulgaria
4-Germany
5-Azerbaijan
6-Poland
7-Czech Republic
8-Netherlands
9-Sweden
10-Italy
11- Hungary
12-France
13-Australia
14-Lithuania
15-Malta
16-United Kingdom
17-Georgia
18-Russia
19-Austria
20-Latvia
21-Ukraine
22-Croatia
23-Serbia
24-Armenia
25-Cyprus
26-Spain

 

[aef]

1 Belgium
2 Germany
3 Hungary
4 Bulgaria
5 The Netherlands
6 Czech Republic
7 Israel
8 Azerbaijan
9 Sweden
10 Poland
11 Italy
12 Australia
13 France
14 Serbia
15 Lithuania
16 Georgia
17 Austria
18 Latvia
19 Malta
20 Russia
21 Spain
22 Cyprus
23 Ukraine
24 Croatia
25 Armenia
26 United Kingdom

 

[theCONWEL]

1. Azerbaijan
2. Germany
3. The Netherlands
4. Czech Republic
5. Hungary
6. Belgium
7. Italy
8. Israel
9. Sweden
10. Poland
11. Bulgaria
12. Australia
13. France
14. Georgia
15. Croatia
16. Lithuania
17. Cyprus
18. Russia
19. Malta
20. United Kingdom
21. Serbia
22. Latvia
23. Armenia
24. Austria
25. Ukraine
26. Spain

 

[Romeo]

I'm guessing...

UK around 14th/15th
Russia around 20th-24th
Malta 20th-24th
Bulgaria 1st
France 2nd
Spain 26th

 

[Escfan93]

I don't want Italy to perform after Sweden, because the public will just look at their ebition and not to Francesca's one

 

[Jacketh]

I hope it is more varied than last year. I remember after Belgium last year, who was 13th, it became so ballad fueled and the only big favourites to come were Italy and Russia. Really poor running order last year.

 

[Andalublue]

What's the point of trying to predict the outcome of a random draw? Just askin'.

 

[JamieBrown]

Hope I'm fast enough for SVT

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I have no clue. I only want that glorious Hovi-Douwe pair at the end of the first half.