Running order for 2013

[GWTW1939]

Norway is NOT closing as Demark probably will or closer to it without looking too suspicious. Azerbaijan, Germany, Russia and Ukraine will perform a lot earlier then you listed and the UK (a big name yet not a threat) and Georgia (Bjorkman's husband is a backing singer) will perform last 5.

 

[QwaarJet]

Denmark will close and UK will be second last imho. Germany will open the show and Russia will be second. Could be completely wrong.

 

[QwaarJet]

Will do my running order quickly before anything official is published.

1. Germany
2. Russia
3. Belgium
4. Estonia
5. Malta
6. Finland
7. Spain
8. Lithuania
9. Belarus
10. Netherlands
11. Armenia
12. France
13. Moldova
14. Ireland
15. Iceland
16. Sweden
17. Hungary
18. Romania
19. Georgia
20. Greece
21. Azerbaijan
22. Norway
23. Italy
24. Ukraine
25. United Kingdom
26. Denmark

Just threw it together.

 

[doctormalisimo]

Prediction:

1. Belarus
2. Moldova
3. Spain
4. France
5. Malta
6. Armenia
7. Germany
8. Lithuania
9. Estonia
10. Finland
11. Netherlands
12. Belgium
13. Russia
14. Greece
15. Georgia
16. Sweden
17. Romania
18. Italy
19. Norway
20. Azerbaijan
21. Denmark
22. UK
23. Hungary
24. Ukraine
25. Iceland
26. Ireland

 

[dogmeat]

I can see them pulling of a joke and placing Denmark 14th.

 

[Yamarus]

I can see them pulling of a joke and placing Denmark 14th.

No they want Denmark to win so bad that they're going to put it in the most favourable position.

 

[cassio]

Will do my running order quickly before anything official is published.

1. Germany
2. Russia
3. Belgium
4. Estonia
5. Malta
6. Finland
7. Spain
8. Lithuania
9. Belarus
10. Netherlands
11. Armenia
12. France
13. Moldova
14. Ireland
15. Iceland
16. Sweden
17. Hungary
18. Romania
19. Georgia
20. Greece
21. Azerbaijan
22. Norway
23. Italy
24. Ukraine
25. United Kingdom
26. Denmark

Just threw it together.

I agree Germany will open and Denmark would be a obvious choice for a closing act but so is Bonnie.

 

[LoveHate]

1. Russia
2. Lithuania
3. Spain
4. Belgium
5. Armenia
6. Moldova
7. Malta
8. Estonia
9. Belarus
10. The Netherlands
11. Finland
12. France
13. Germany
14. Hungary
15. United Kingdom
16. Sweden
17. Ukraine
18. Iceland
19. Romania
20. Denmark
21. Ireland
22. Georgia
23. Greece
24. Norway
25. Italy
26. Azerbaijan

 

[No Name]

I'm not so sure the closing act is the most favorable position after all. Statistically speaking, if we look back at the past 5 years the winners have been found between 18-22 so that's what I'd prefer.

 

[Yamarus]

I agree Germany will open and Denmark would be a obvious choice for a closing act but so is Bonnie.

#26 won't go to Denmark, people get bored around the #23 mark (see Spain 2009). I think they'll put Denmark at #18.

 

[AdelAdel]

Um... since when are they allowed to actually CHOOSE themselves? Isn't this supposed to be a draw?

 

[Yamarus]

Um... since when are they allowed to actually CHOOSE themselves? Isn't this supposed to be a draw?

This is the first time since the ESC was created that entries are arranged by the producers. And of course they're going to favour Denmark, which I wouldn't mind winning, but it's a bit too obvious (it was already with Loreen last year, I must admit).

 

[AdelAdel]

This is the first time since the ESC was created that entries are arranged by the producers. And of course they're going to favour Denmark, which I wouldn't mind winning, but it's a bit too obvious (it was already with Loreen last year, I must admit).

So were the rules changed permanently? Will it be like this next year and so on?

 

[Yamarus]

So were the rules changed permanently? Will it be like this next year and so on?

I don't know, I think it'll depend a lot on this year's results. Like 2011 I think 2013 will be the year where the actual winner will not be the same in televote and jury, and maybe it'll be much more controversial than in 2011. Imagine Azerbaijan or Georgia wins 2013 televote, Netherlands jury (of which I'm about 100% sure), with Denmark winning overall.

 

[LoveHate]

#26 won't go to Denmark, people get bored around the #23 mark (see Spain 2009). I think they'll put Denmark at #18.

I don't think they'll put Sweden and Denmark so close to each other. I have them at #20.

 

[AdelAdel]

I don't know, I think it'll depend a lot on this year's results. Like 2011 I think 2013 will be the year where the actual winner will not be the same in televote and jury, and maybe it'll be much more controversial than in 2011. Imagine Azerbaijan or Georgia wins 2013 televote, Netherlands jury (of which I'm about 100% sure), with Denmark winning overall.

Okay... so EBU can change the official rules to their liking whenever they want? :?

 

[DanielLuis]

Okay... so EBU can change the official rules to their liking whenever they want? :?

Well duh they are the EBU
Where have you been? This rule was decided months ago, it was already like this for the Semi-Finals!

Anyway, I don't think SVT will give Denmark the 26th position ... it would be to obvious, and they would be accused of favoring their neighbors.

 

[zenon]

I think Belarus will open the show so latecomers don't miss out on Germany and Finland.

 

[Trece]

Denmark will 17-23 for sure. May be even #17 again for the win (and not win in the end )

I don't understand, why this ESC is all for Denmark?

 

[LoveHate]

Did this a while back.

Some interesting statistics:
Last ten ESC:s the average start number for 1:st, 2:nd and 3:rd places are
1:st place: 17.5
2:nd place: 12.9
3:rd place: 11.2

If you look only at the last five years:
1:st place: 20.4
2:nd place: 13.8
3:rd place: 14.6

2:nd and 3:rd seem to be pretty smack down in the middle when the number of finalists has been between 24 and 26. However the average starting number for the winners is clearly higher.

I then did some further statistical analysis of the winner-data and found out that at a confidence interval of 95 % the winning starting number is between 13 and 22 (rounded numbers). This does not mean 95 % of all winners will have a starting number between 13 and 22, but as you collect more samples from different years the average is almost certainly in that range. In the past ten years three winners were outside that interval, one of which was nr 24.

Calculation numbers (the REALLY boring part):
n=10 years
x=17.5
s=6.169
df=9
t 0.975 (df) = 2.262

So the numbers are telling us the ideal starting number is in the second half of the final, but not quite at the end. Is this just a coincidence (sure winners getting high numbers), or does it play a big role (people at home more likely to vote for semi-late performances)?

The average since the introduction of televoting is 17.066.