Running order for 2013

[katapult]

This is a scandalous decision, imo! I can't believe it!
So, now who exactly will decide about who to get f.e. slot number 2 or number 20? A presumptious bunch of control freaks? (Are they going to decide indirectly about the winner this way?) Who do they think they are?
A random draw is the only fair way to sort out the running order!
Seriously, what's the benefit for the contest? This only evokes more suspicions of manipulation and corruption, envy and for sure many (understandable) angry complaints after the running order announcements.
I don't want ESC like that.

Bad, bad, bad! xdown The worst new idea for 2013 so far, sorry Sweden.
Please scrap that plan asap!

 

[CC92]

Well, bad move. On the other hand, it is not half as far-reaching and un-democratic as letting a secret 'jury panel' decide 50% of the qualifiers and the final results so I do not really understand the big fuss thrown by some either.
Generally I am strictly opposed to the involvement of politics in ESC, which includes the affectation of interest in other countries' national policy (human-rights-talking, etc.), and actions like this just disclose the hypocrisy of western broadcasters, in particular NDR´and SVT.

 

[penguinperson]

You're only going to get blogs or info from the ESCbet guy.

The starting position of all winners


9/14 Last 5 *1
6/10 Last 5 *2
3/10 First 5 *1
5/11 First 5 *2
13/13 Last 5 *3
14/16 Last 5 *4
9/16 Middling *1
8/16 Middling *2
12/16 Last 5 *5
15/18 Last 5 *6
9/18 Middling *3
11/17 Middling *4
15/17 Last 5 *7
14/16 1969 On tiebreak rule to France Last 5 *8
12/12 Last 5 *9
3/18 First 5 *3
17/18 Last 5 *10
11/17 Middling *5
8/17 Middling *6
1/19 First 5 *4
1/18 First 5 *5
18/18 Last 5 *11
18/20 Last 5*12
10/19 Middling *7
17/19 Last 5 *13
14/20 Middling *8
18/18 Last 5 *14
20/20 Last 5 *15
1/19 First 5 *6
13/19 Middling *9
13/20 Middling *10
20/22 Last 5 *16
9/21 Middling *11
22/22 Last 5 *17
19/22 Last 5 *18
8/22 Early
17/23 Last 10
14/25 Middling *12
3/25 First 5 *7
5/23 First 5 *8
17/23 Last 10
24/25 Last 5 *19
8/25 Early
15/23 Last 10
14/24 Last 10
20/23 Last 5 *20
23/24 Last 5 *21
4/26 First 5*9
10/24 Early
19/24 Last 10
17/24 Last 10
17/24 Last 10
24/25 Last 5*22
20/25 Last 10
22/25 Last 5 *23
19/25 Last 10
17/26 Last 10

So making bets may become easier or they put favs early and if they don't win the broadcaster throws a hissy as they were screwed over.

If you look at even something like the X Factor UK voting numbers the early draws do worse consistently week in week out.

For example 2011
Week 1 Eliminated 1/16 6/16 7/16 8/16
Week 2 Bottom 2 1/12 5/12
Week 3 3/11 7/11
Week 4 3/10 5/10
Week 5 1/9 6/9
Week 6 1/7 6/7
Week 7 1/6 3/6
Week 8 2/5 3/5
Week 9 1/4
Final 3/3 1/2

 

[apasionata]

Don't like this decision...

 

[Matt]

I'm looking for something more academic, though. A qualified statistician carries more weight than some guy with a blog.

I highly doubt that an actual statistican would put time and effort into something like ESC and the impact of the running order. Maybe due to these recent changes somebody would actually step forward and do that. Or maybe it's just wish thinking on my part.

 

[AdelAdel]

Let this be a lesson so that Sweden never wins again

 

[LalehForWD]

If I understand it right, this is a change of the rules in Eurovision Song Contest. The change is permanent and decided by the Eurovision Song Contest reference group. It is not some new idea from SVT or any other broadcaster.

SVT comments on the issue.

 

[A-lister]

This is a scandalous decision, imo! I can't believe it!
So, now who exactly will decide about who to get f.e. slot number 2 or number 20? A presumptious bunch of control freaks? (Are they going to decide indirectly about the winner this way?) Who do they think they are?
A random draw is the only fair way to sort out the running order!
Seriously, what's the benefit for the contest? This only evokes more suspicions of manipulation and corruption, envy and for sure many (understandable) angry complaints after the running order announcements.
I don't want ESC like that.

Bad, bad, bad! xdown The worst new idea for 2013 so far, sorry Sweden.
Please scrap that plan asap!

Couldn't have said it better myself!

But we can talk alot around here... but I think we should show the power of the fans... afterall without us there would be no ESC and we (the people) are actually the ones paying for it aswell! This ugly elite thinking is so politicized and nasty.

1) We should all contact our national ESC teams/broadcaster responsible for ESC.
2) Start an 'official' petition
3) Start a facebook group against this and simply spread the word wherever we can.

 

[A-lister]

If I understand it right, this is a change of the rules in Eurovision Song Contest. The change is permanent and decided by the Eurovision Song Contest reference group. It is not some new idea from SVT or any other broadcaster.

SVT comments on the issue.

Even worse, but the idea comes from Sweden (as this just screams Björkman and the dire man is part of the reference group).

This will destroy the legitimacy of ESC !

 

[LalehForWD]

I'm looking for something more academic, though. A qualified statistician carries more weight than some guy with a blog.

I've seen a mathematical model this spring. I'm not sure it was purely on running order, but merely a part of the model. It was tested on "known" years with pretty good results. I guess it was to be used by a betting company. Sorry I couldn't find it now, but I'll continue to look.

 

[Matt]

If I understand it right, this is a change of the rules in Eurovision Song Contest. The change is permanent and decided by the Eurovision Song Contest reference group. It is not some new idea from SVT or any other broadcaster.

SVT comments on the issue.

correct, This was an EBU decision so they're the one to blame/ praise (based on your opinion) but SVT has the difficult task to avoid any possible claims of bias or favoritsm. Imagine if we had the same rule in 2012 and Azerbaijan would have put Sweden, Serbia & Russia in the first three positions? And then put songs such as Hungary and Malta (songs that were low in the odds) before and after them? No matter what they're going to do people will be pissed. It's a lose/lose situation as far as I can tell.

 

[r3gg13]

I highly doubt that an actual statistican would put time and effort into something like ESC and the impact of the running order. Maybe due to these recent changes somebody would actually step forward and do that. Or maybe it's just wish thinking on my part.

I've read academic articles by media researchers/professors about voting patterns in ESC among other ESC related things for a project before. So, there might be chance that JStor, Anthrosource or ProjectMUSE might have something on running order or something that talks about it.

 

[Mickey]

I highly doubt that an actual statistican would put time and effort into something like ESC and the impact of the running order. Maybe due to these recent changes somebody would actually step forward and do that. Or maybe it's just wish thinking on my part.

The Eurovision Song Contest Part 2: Does being a semi-finalist help? - Web Exclusive Article - Significance Magazine
I beg to differ. This was written by a friend of mine, who I know independently of Eurovision. I might just ask him to do it.

Eurovision is such a mathematician's dream that I'm surprised there hasn't been anything more formal done. It should be pretty easy too. I'd put my maths degree to good use and do it myself, but I'd still just be a guy with a blog.

 

[A-lister]

correct, This was an EBU decision so they're the one to blame/ praise (based on your opinion) but SVT has the difficult task to avoid any possible claims of bias or favoritsm. Imagine if we had the same rule in 2012 and Azerbaijan would have put Sweden, Serbia & Russia in the first three positions? And then put songs such as Hungary and Malta (songs that were low in the odds) before and after them? No matter what they're going to do people will be pissed. It's a lose/lose situation as far as I can tell.

Well, mr Björkman is part of that reference group and this just smells his idea... so I partly blame SVT anyways.

Nevertheless, this truly is a lose/lose situation and the contest looses all its legitimacy with this.

 

[Kicker]

Sweden is messing up Eurovision... :/

 

[LalehForWD]

correct, This was an EBU decision so they're the one to blame/ praise (based on your opinion) but SVT has the difficult task to avoid any possible claims of bias or favoritsm. Imagine if we had the same rule in 2012 and Azerbaijan would have put Sweden, Serbia & Russia in the first three positions? And then put songs such as Hungary and Malta (songs that were low in the odds) before and after them? No matter what they're going to do people will be pissed. It's a lose/lose situation as far as I can tell.

Yes, but it would be fair to assume there must be some methods associated with a rule change. EBU as an organization for Broadcasting companies. We cannot expect anything to be transparent or democratic. At least SVT is a private company and would not allow anyone than its own board to have insight into company secrets. With rules there must be strict methods to be followed and trust between the members that everything is carried out properly. I think this is evident, but we'll never know.

Which leaves the question: Is running order so important that luck is the only fair thing.

I don't know.

 

[A-lister]

Yes, but it would be fair to assume there must be some methods associated with a rule change. EBU as an organization for Broadcasting companies. We cannot expect anything to be transparent or democratic. At least SVT is a private company and would not allow anyone than its own board to have insight into company secrets. With rules there must be strict methods to be followed and trust between the members that everything is carried out properly. I think this is evident, but we'll never know.

Which leaves the question: Is running order so important that luck is the only fair thing.

I don't know.

Yes starting number IS important (although I wish it wasn't), even the brain behind this idiotic new rule Mr. Björkman himself talk about starting numbers in ESC each and every year... which makes this even worse in a sense because now he will sit and pick those numbers himself (like the MF/ESC dictator he is).

 

[Sean]

How will rehearsals for the final work if they need time to work out the right draw? None of this makes sense...

 

[LalehForWD]

On news sites and blogs in Sweden, the rule change is what I can see received positively. The hope of getting ESC to a new level is getting fed by this and the confidence in ESC in Malmö SVT management is getting stronger. Sorry, but this is my impression.

Swedish news comments:
Expressen
TT Spektra

 

[r3gg13]

EscToday article on reactions

Mixed feelings about Eurovision rule change | esctoday.com