So Sweden only have got their position decided? All of the other countries will be drawn to either the first or second half of the final and SVT will then design the running order for the first and second half, independently. Interesting changes. I made a little counting, maybe it has already been posted on here. These are the rank sums (of the final placings) of the first and second half, independently, since 2000. If the total number of finalists have been an odd number (as in 2001, we had 23 countries, the position in the exact middle have not been counted to any of the halfs). Bolded are years when the first half had the best results (= lowest sums).
Year - First half sum - Second half sum
2012: 192 - 159
2011: 148 - 152
2010: 199 - 117
2009: 143 - 192
2008: 196 - 116
2007: 174 - 126
2006: 186 - 114
2005: 133 - 167
2004: 142 - 158
2003: 165 - 184
2002: 136 - 160
2001: 169 - 86
2000: 173 - 126
Total: 2156 - 1857
Number of songs in each population: 13x2 + 11 + 12x10 = 157
Wilcoxon rank-sum (test for statistical significance): 2.20583%, 97.7942%
Actually, it was some time since I dealt with statistical testing, so a slight reservation that this attempt failed on any of the premises. With an indication of almost 98 % certainty though, I'd suspect we may conclude that a late position has been advantageous over the past 13 years. However, in 6 of 7 cases, the first half was still better overall.
And the winning positions (2000 to 2012): 14, 20, 23, 4, 10, 19, 17, 17, 24, 20, 22, 19, 16. Well, it get's brighter this way. First-half positions have only won 2 of 13. However, of the remaining 11 winners, about half of them have had positions 20+.
In a tough year like this one then, it seems like your hope for victory is severely reduced if you end up in the first half, and even more markedly in positions 1-10. We may just hope to get proven different and send an extra vote for our early favourites.
Do I prefer the producers to design the running order? Well, the most important thing seem to lie in whether you end up in the first or second half, rather than if your exact position is 15 or 22. Maybe they can adjust the running order to achieve better entertainment. If that happens to be the case, then I wont oppose the new drawing procedures too much. However, it will always be more exciting, and justifiably satisfying, if the ballot is aimed at positions as it uses to be. This new division feels a little stigmatizing in a "you can't win" or "you may win" sort of sense. So yes then, I prefer the normal procedure. However, it may be compensated for if SVT in some sense can make every entry shine in comparison to their given entourage.