Portugal PORTUGAL 2025 - Napa - Deslocado

[ESC United Mod Team]

 

[timmy121]

I think Josh can win Eurovision if selected, but I fear Fernando Daniel will win the NF

 

[goncalovieira]

It will be a four people race, the esc/fdc fandom is divided between Henka and Josh, but Napa has a lot of regional support and Fernando Daniel has a massive fandom that could help him the televote, not to mention that he could also get a lot of support form casual viewers that are used to seeing him as a mentor in "The Voice" and "The Voice Kids".
Regarding the judges, things are harder to predict and, honestly, if RTP where to fix the result for anyone it would be Fernando Daniel- He pretty much owes his sucess thanks to RTP and the show "The Voice", he won the 2016 edition, competede on FdC in 2017 and he has been a mentor to other contestants in 4 separate occasions, 3 on "The Voice Kids" and one in "TheVoice". He is someone that the broadcaster has worked with multiple times in the past and probably would make thing easier for them if he hapenned to win the nf, but I don't think that the broadcaster will or even can fix the jury vote this year, there are too much overlapping qualities between the major players, things could blew in their faces.

If they fix anything this year, will be the main favorite of the international fandom. They always pay attention to this detail.
I am not afraid at all. Fernando Daniel's song is doing ok everywhere. There is no hype on his social networks. NAPA are dangerous for the televote, but let's be real... the song is niche. João Borsh at least had a bop with Eurovision vibes. I can not see any juror from the mainland giving a big mark for them.

 

[lacrymea]

If they fix anything this year, will be the main favorite of the international fandom. They always pay attention to this detail.

This is where i lay all my hopes. Hence my comment earlier. If they need to tweak things to make the international fandom sweetheart win, they'll do it. Or i hope so, looking at past examples.

 

[goncalovieira]

This is where i lay all my hopes. Hence my comment earlier. If they need to tweak things to make the international fandom sweetheart win, they'll do it. Or i hope so, looking at past examples.

Right? That is why I am pretty sure Josh is taking it.
I know they are trying hard to apply every request from the contestants. There are some crazy ideas this year. Studio 1 is very limited, though. That is why they should start thinking about increasing the budget.
For our international friends/users... RTP has in their annual schedule shows like The Voice adults, The Voice kids, Got Talent Portugal, Masterchef, and Taskmaster. So, they kinda have the money to bring quality to the viewers. However, this tv director who has been leading since 2020, does the minimum for FdC. Even though, it gets more viewers (youngsters, especially) than usual. And Eurovision is even bigger. It is the only entertainment show that gives leadership. Last year, it smashed Big Brother on the slot (that is very hard). People talk about Eurovision around May and it gets hyped at some point. And this year, if we get the chance to be on odds top 5, it will start earlier.

 

[goncalovieira]

Our queen Carla Bugalho does what she can but it is a matter of time before leaving for another bigger thing.

 

[Decayingbooks]

If they fix anything this year, will be the main favorite of the international fandom.

Fan favorite? Let's be honest, every year is the same story, in February the influencers all say that Portugal is the "best thing evar!!!", "winner vibez!!!" even but when May arrives the singer is "pretentious" and the song is a "bathroom break". Every. Single. Year.

 

[goncalovieira]

Fan favorite? Let's be honest, every year is the same story, in February the influencers all say that Portugal is the "best thing evar!!!", "winner vibez!!!" even but when May arrives the singer is "pretentious" and the song is a "bathroom break". Every. Single. Year.

Last year, we were ignored till the first rehearsal in Malmo. Apart from Mimicat, it happened every year after COVID.

 

[Decayingbooks]

Anyway...
Henka started rehearsing today and the choreographer shared a little snippet - here -
An interesting fact, one of the dancers also did Bobbi Arlo's choreo...

 

[lacrymea]

Anyway...
Henka started rehearsing today and the choreographer shared a little snippet - here -
An interesting fact, one of the dancers also did Bobbi Arlo's choreo...

For the record, I'd be fine with either Josh or Henka winning (they're my 1 and 2 picks). I just don't want FD to win xD

 

[goncalovieira]

For me, it is all about Josh.
At this time, I am sure Henka is not winning.
Fernando Daniel would be ok after all.
NAPA... hell no.

 

[goncalovieira]

And we are 9th on the odds...

 

[timmy121]

And we are 9th on the odds...

4th if Josh wins, 15th if any of the others

 

[DirtyFalcon]

However my little concern with Josh is that he tries to overdone the staging (and it seems he's teasing that from what i can see on his instagram). It's very easy to connect to the studio version because you have nothing else to be distracted with. You're just focused on the song and can enjoy this fantastic instrumentation.

But if you have prop and if he tries to fly on stage, this might slightly distract the viewers from the song itself, his intrepretation of the song live and overall it risks losing a bit of emotionnal impact the act could have had. He needs a simple staging, with great lights and the camera focused on him interpreting the song and showing his emotions singing it with the eye contact as well. If he does that, he will easily win the NF i have no doubt about that. If not then, it might maybe open the door for another act to win (in my opinion).

He could still win even with that but at Eurovision, this wouldn't help him. For me his song is Amar Pelos Dois meets Rise Like a Phoenix with portuguese extra flavor and both had the common point to have performance focused on the interpretation of the singer. I don't think any of those songs would have had the same impact if staged another way. Of course it's too early but let's see what Josh has to offer to us.

 

[goncalovieira]

Guess who is this boy....

JOÃO DUARTE - FACTOR X - AUDIÃÃO PGM 01 - 2014

Factor X Portugal - Canal Oficial no YouTube

youtu.be

 

[aef]

I only listened to the recap of the songs after they got released, today I listened to the full version of Tristeza for the first time and man, this is so beautiful and touching! I actually had a tear in my eyes after like a minute…

I really hope this song gets chosen! Is this song also the reason why is so high in the odds?

It can’t be because of Fernando Daniel (who somehow has got more views on YT, his song is rather basic in my opinion).

 

[Decayingbooks]

I only listened to the recap of the songs after they got released, today I listened to the full version of Tristeza for the first time and man, this is so beautiful and touching! I actually had a tear in my eyes after like a minute…

I really hope this song gets chosen! Is this song also the reason why is so high in the odds?

It can’t be because of Fernando Daniel (who somehow has got more views on YT, his song is rather basic in my opinion).

Some people would say yes, but I'm on the tbd camp. Things aren't as clear as in previous years and either Josh, Fernando Daniel, Henka or Napa could win the nf. Napa is actually having a level of unprecedented commercial sucess as a nf competing song, but it's unclear it that sucess will mean that people will actually vote for them.

 

[aef]

Some people would say yes, but I'm on the tbd camp. Things aren't as clear as in previous years and either Josh, Fernando Daniel, Henka or Napa could win the nf. Napa is actually having a level of unprecedented commercial sucess as a nf competing song, but it's unclear it that sucess will mean that people will actually vote for them.

I wasn't really asking about the actual winning chances of the artists, I’m more interested in why is so high in the odds. I don’t see any other reason than Tristeza for that or am I wrong?

 

[Decayingbooks]

I wasn't really asking about the actual winning chances of the artists, I’m more interested in why is so high in the odds. I don’t see any other reason than Tristeza for that or am I wrong?

I could be also because of Henka tbh... There's not a single metalcore in the current esc lineup and that genre has been working really well with the televote in the past years... But who knows? Malta is at #10... I personally don't care that much about odds watching, but it occurs to me that Poland just choose a very loud song and with them perfoming also in the first half of semi 1 it could hinder or help whatever Portugal decides to send. So if you're interested in trying to guess why the odds place Portugal so high you should keep an eye in the numbers, if the bookmakers lower Portugal chances they're betting on Henka winning the nf, if not, they're betting on Josh or Fernando Daniel, his song is very vanilla but it has a hook and people may crave vanilla if they find the other flavours too exoctic for their taste buds.

Edit: Malta is currrently at #9 and Portugal dropped to #10, I guess it was because of Henka that Portugal was so high...

 

[DirtyFalcon]

I could be also because of Henka tbh... There's not a single metalcore in the current esc lineup and that genre has been working really well with the televote in the past years... But who knows? Malta is at #10... I personally don't care that much about odds watching, but it occurs to me that Poland just choose a very loud song and with them perfoming also in the first half of semi 1 it could hinder or help whatever Portugal decides to send. So if you're interested in trying to guess why the odds place Portugal so high you should keep an eye in the numbers, if the bookmakers lower Portugal chances they're betting on Henka winning the nf, if not, they're betting on Josh or Fernando Daniel, his song is very vanilla but it has a hook and people may crave vanilla if they find the other flavours too exoctic for their taste buds.

Edit: Malta is currrently at #9 and Portugal dropped to #10, I guess it was because of Henka that Portugal was so high...

It's thanks to Josh. Henka entry could be a Top 10 maybe Top 5 if staged very impactfully but Josh is a potential Eurovision winner. Just look at the comments under youtube. Everyone says he will win Eurovision if he wins FdC and rightfully because i don't think we've ever seen such a sophisticated and symphonic composition in a ballad for Eurovision in like 30 years (it's even better than ballads like Fai Rumore, Arcade or Voilà). For me Portugal will be first in the odds when he gets chosen. My only concern remains what i said about the staging on my previous message. He wants to fly on stage so could reduce the impact of the performance and the necessary intimacy.

For me Josh potential victory in FdC is even more obvious than Iolanda victory last year.

 

[timmy121]

I wasn't really asking about the actual winning chances of the artists, I’m more interested in why is so high in the odds. I don’t see any other reason than Tristeza for that or am I wrong?

As someone in the betting circles (and due a 5-figure payout if Portugal wins), it's because of Josh. Genuine ESC contender