Don't know about that to be honest ...
Russia winning would be awful for the EBU. They want to make the contest more popular. They are proud that the contest is broadcast in the USA for the first time. They want to establish a successful Asian version and more regional editions if possible. The best winner for them would be a popular winner that is radio-friendly and that could be at least a minor commercial success.
Russia would be a commercial flop like in 2008 and it would make Eurovision look like a camp contest (again). It would go against the EBU's plan to establish Eurovision as a credible music contest. The headlines on Sunday would be about the major booing that would follow a Russian victory. This would be the first time the winner gets booed and I think the boos would indeed be massive. That's not the ending the EBU wants for the contest.
Next year would be full of problems. That's not just about the anti-gay laws but there are more political issues and the sanctions could be a problem for organizing the contest in Russia. It's possible that broadcasters could drop out and the coverage in the media would be focused on political issues this year after the contest and next year whenever Eurovision is mentioned in the media.
The EBU would be much happier with a winner like France because that makes much more sense for them. Of course, they need to appear neutral in public but I'm sure they don't want Russia to win and the same is true for SVT and Björkman.