France FRANCE 2016 - Amir - J'ai cherché

[ZoboCamel]

Atm France has the highest point average of 8.992. Latvia is second with 8.41 followed by Cyprus / Bosnia&Herzegovina with exaxtly the same stats and 8.35 avg. Before the zero-pointer (I hope I did not provoke that one ) they were on 9+. The song may not have the most die-hard fans but is well liked by a significant majority.

The absence of haters is unusual for a fan fav. Seems to have quite an universal appeal, at least here.

I wouldn't say that those statistics indicate great chances at winning fan polls or the contest, despite the high average. Yes, it's almost universally accepted, but it's not acceptance and mild enjoyment that propels a song to win; people generally vote for their top few favourites (ie. personal 12-pointers), and by that metric there are already a few other songs doing better than France. It feels as if France isn't going to be the #1 favourite on too many lists, especially when we've got more songs; it'll probably sit in that #5-#15 spot for a lot of people, which I think is the same issue Slovenia inevitably had last year (though moreso in the contest itself than on the forums). As we see more entries coming out, I imagine France's position in polls and so on will drop as it falls from, perhaps, ~5th to ~11th in the average fan's ranking. That would cause it to lose that wide smattering of lower-top-10 points, while the more divisive love/hate entries like Ukraine, Latvia and Spain shouldn't have as much of an issue with dropping below other 'kinda nice', lower-top-10-worthy songs in people's rankings. We can see a similar concept at play in the systems for combining jury votes, and, on a larger scale, combining televotes: in a field of 26, it's better to be a divisive song coming 1st with half your audience and last with the other half than to be an acceptable song placing 11th with everybody, as the divisive entry will score nicely while the acceptable one gets nothing. An exaggerated example, I know, but I think it shows the rough point: songs that stand out and leave an impression on some will in theory beat songs that everyone kinda likes, and France's entry this year falls squarely into that second category.

Now of course, I could be wrong. I've just piled assumptions on top of each other here, so a small surprise in one area could disrupt my guesses and give France a great result, we can't consider the all-important live presentations yet, and there's always the chance of a mediocre entry coming out of nowhere to take a closely-contested year by a kind of 'meh, I guess it'll do' consensus (*cough cough* *cough cough*). Still, I'm predicting an overall finish on the borderline of top 10 one way or another for France, both on fan polls and in the contest itself. Also - I may be semi-disagreeing with you here, but don't take it personally. I just love debating, guessing and second-guessing Eurovision results, is all

 

[Musicosity]

I wouldn't say that those statistics indicate great chances at winning fan polls or the contest, despite the high average. Yes, it's almost universally accepted, but it's not acceptance and mild enjoyment that propels a song to win; people generally vote for their top few favourites (ie. personal 12-pointers), and by that metric there are already a few other songs doing better than France. It feels as if France isn't going to be the #1 favourite on too many lists, especially when we've got more songs; it'll probably sit in that #5-#15 spot for a lot of people, which I think is the same issue Slovenia inevitably had last year (though moreso in the contest itself than on the forums). As we see more entries coming out, I imagine France's position in polls and so on will drop as it falls from, perhaps, ~5th to ~11th in the average fan's ranking. That would cause it to lose that wide smattering of lower-top-10 points, while the more divisive love/hate entries like Ukraine, Latvia and Spain shouldn't have as much of an issue with dropping below other 'kinda nice', lower-top-10-worthy songs in people's rankings. We can see a similar concept at play in the systems for combining jury votes, and, on a larger scale, combining televotes: in a field of 26, it's better to be a divisive song coming 1st with half your audience and last with the other half than to be an acceptable song placing 11th with everybody, as the divisive entry will score nicely while the acceptable one gets nothing. An exaggerated example, I know, but I think it shows the rough point: songs that stand out and leave an impression on some will in theory beat songs that everyone kinda likes, and France's entry this year falls squarely into that second category.

Now of course, I could be wrong. I've just piled assumptions on top of each other here, so a small surprise in one area could disrupt my guesses and give France a great result, we can't consider the all-important live presentations yet, and there's always the chance of a mediocre entry coming out of nowhere to take a closely-contested year by a kind of 'meh, I guess it'll do' consensus (*cough cough* *cough cough*). Still, I'm predicting an overall finish on the borderline of top 10 one way or another for France, both on fan polls and in the contest itself. Also - I may be semi-disagreeing with you here, but don't take it personally. I just love debating, guessing and second-guessing Eurovision results, is all

I certainly don't take it personally, don't worry. I fully agree with you, the forum poll isn't very good at predicting the outcome of the contest, it never was in previous years. So maybe my wording was a bit misguiding if you thought I said otherwise. That the song is the highest rated in the forum is rather a statement about us than about its actual chances in Stockholm. What to make out of the fact is of course free to everybody's interpretation. I just found it peculiar that it got this position without the usual tail of hate votes at the end, I think it is the first time I have seen it for a highest-rated song. Regarding the actual prediction I am right with you: Possible top 10, but no win. I think r3gg13 described it best in one word: The song is inoffensive, lowering its chances for the reasons you mentioned.

 

[popavapeur]

 

[VikingTiger]

....and I had to change my 7 into an 8. But that is as high as I'll go.
I think...

 

[Evalngelion]

And i've change my 12 into an infinite number

 

[yulara]

For once, I like our entry. That's a good surprise

 

[Carian]

I guess I'm careful with the top 10 because we did so bad for a long time, and when French fans believed we would do well, the actual position we got didn't live up to our expectations: Jessy Matador in 2010 (12th), Amaury in 2011 (15th) and even Patricia Kaas was considered a little flop (8th) since she's an established artist and people were expecting a top 5 or something

I think I'll wait for the video of the rehearsal in Stockholm to have a better idea about our chances, as it may affect an act positively or negatively, regardless of the song.

I guess I'm careful with the top 10 because we did so bad for a long time, and when French fans believed we would do well, the actual position we got didn't live up to our expectations: Jessy Matador in 2010 (12th), Amaury in 2011 (15th) and even Patricia Kaas was considered a little flop (8th) since she's an established artist and people were expecting a top 5 or something

I think I'll wait for the video of the rehearsal in Stockholm to have a better idea about our chances, as it may affect an act positively or negatively, regardless of the song.

Well, I know the feeling. Slovenia always hope for the best, and then we are (almost always) disappointed. However, this does not change the fact that this year, you've managed to send (somehow) a good song that will probably stay with fans and have some commercial success - regardless of the ESC. So, why all this precaution? Because you might be disappointed? Well, I think you should enjoy the hype about your entry this year. Everyone is talking about it, expectations are high... So what if you flop again?

And one comment out of the context: why people always forget to add AMANDINE when they talk about good French entries to ESC in recent years. This girl was simply splendid. How great she was, tells the fact that even I voted her, although I never vote in ESC

 

[Carian]

Douze points.

You mean VINGT-QUATRE POINTS

 

[ESCFr]

Just coming back to say that I am really proud to have this song to represent my country !

 

[John1]

That's really incredible how has France improved its selection process in order to choose its songs since 2015...
'N'oubliez pas' was already an improvement in regard to 'Moustache' which was a bland copy/paste of Stromae's song ('Papaoutai'), even if I'm not loving this artist which is quite overrated sometimes.
Indeed, the melodies of his numerous songs are pretty almost the same each time I do listen to it, but I must reckon that the attention which Stromae is able to draw does not come from nowhere.

 

[tuorem]

Well, I know the feeling. Slovenia always hope for the best, and then we are (almost always) disappointed. However, this does not change the fact that this year, you've managed to send (somehow) a good song that will probably stay with fans and have some commercial success - regardless of the ESC. So, why all this precaution? Because you might be disappointed? Well, I think you should enjoy the hype about your entry this year. Everyone is talking about it, expectations are high... So what if you flop again?

And one comment out of the context: why people always forget to add AMANDINE when they talk about good French entries to ESC in recent years. This girl was simply splendid. How great she was, tells the fact that even I voted her, although I never vote in ESC

I'm not afraid of another flop from my country , if it is to happen again this year. But I doubt it, it won't bomb like our previous entries, I just remain skeptical towards people who are confident about us reaching the top 10 (or top 5). I feel like the fact that France sends something in line with the contest standards - for once - might have led people to expect a great result we would have trouble achieving. But that's just my opinion, top 15 is the only realistic result for me so far (without the staging).

Why do we forget Amandine? Because there was nothing to criticize about her, and she's like an oasis in the dry desert of our recent entries. She indeed deserved much more, but we were killed by opening the final, sadly.

 

[Mykola]

Top 5 ехactly, may be win.....good lucky France.... youuuuu

 

[popavapeur]

Why do we forget Amandine? Because there was nothing to criticize about her, and she's like an oasis in the dry desert of our recent entries. She indeed deserved much more, but we were killed by opening the final, sadly.

Ukraine opened the final in 2014 and reached 6th. That's not an "excuse", L'enfer et moi was just.. yes, like hell. Nothing good to take off that song. Not memorable, no melodies, just a good singer with and average staging.

 

[tuorem]

Ukraine opened the final in 2014 and reached 6th. That's not an "excuse", L'enfer et moi was just.. yes, like hell. Nothing good to take off that song. Not memorable, no melodies, just a good singer with and average staging.

Ukraine is overrated though, we aren't. And "L'enfer et moi" wasn't a suitable song to open the show, it was a very bad idea. I can't buy that - in such a weak year - 22 songs were better and/or more memorable than this tbh: the UK, Lithuania, Estonia, Armenia, Georgia, to name a few, weren't more than average, yet they got better placings. But I acknowledge some of these countries are naturally overrated too.

 

[apasionata]

Ukraine is overrated though, we aren't. And "L'enfer et moi" wasn't a suitable song to open the show, it was a very bad idea. I can't buy that - in such a weak year - 22 songs were better and/or more memorable than this tbh: the UK, Lithuania, Estonia, Armenia, Georgia, to name a few, weren't more than average, yet they got better placings. But I acknowledge some of these countries are naturally overrated too.

I am so happy somebody is still defending this masterpiece. Props to you, man!

 

[John1]

Ukraine opened the final in 2014 and reached 6th. That's not an "excuse", L'enfer et moi was just.. yes, like hell. Nothing good to take off that song. Not memorable, no melodies, just a good singer with and average staging.

I do agree with you on this point.
It was neither strong nor mindblowing enough to get out of the bottom 5 in which France is stucked since 2012.

 

[Matt]

A pleasant and radio friendly entry. But this isn't always a good thing when it comes to Eurovision. This just screams "will be forgotten by the end of the night". But I wouldn't skip it when it comes up on my IPod. I was hoping for a stronger chorus. six points.

 

[julien4ESC]

After disaster in Poland, France stays my favorite so far ! I'm confident for a very very good result in may in Sweden !

 

[popavapeur]

After disaster in Poland, France stays my favorite so far ! I'm confident for a very very good result in may in Sweden !

You know what ?

i agree. With all the disasters almost everywhere, France might have a chance in May and i truly think about it. And people know i'm easy to criticize stuff and hard to please but "J'ai Cherché" remains one of the good songs this year. If the staging is very great, it has a chance to win.

 

[GWTW1939]

France was ALWAYS better then that "Cool Me Down" trash. It had an actual melody