Live EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2022 FINAL DISCUSSION

[Sean]

Please use this thread to discuss rehearsals in general and also to follow along with all of the live shows in Turin.

Matt, Melanie and Roy from the ESC United team will be LIVE in Turin over the coming days, with yours truly joining them on the ground in the coming days.

Make sure to join Matt for the round up of Eurovision 2022 rehearsals from 10:00 CET, LIVE on Youtube. Links to all live streams are below;

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>>> Click HERE for the Eurovision 2022 rehearsal schedule <<<​

 

[Zeus]

The opening song is most of the time a fresh/happy/high-energy song that did just fine in their semi right?

Thinking about entries like Latvia, Austria, Armenia, Ireland, Romania, Cyprus, Belgium.. Depends on who qualifies and the draw ofcourse, but I guess one of them could be very well possible.

 

[aef]

Watching the big 5 rehearsals again I can see that especially improved their chances a lot by its staging in my opinion. Before I didn't care about the song at all, now it became somehow interesting. The staging is quit different and intimate. I think they can easily reach top 15 this year.

is really killing it this year, I love this so much. I still hope they will surprise and be top 5 or something like that.

I'm still not too keen on , neither the song and also not the staging. In my opinion the staging is really tasteless and old-fashioned somehow. Not a fan of it at all. But I guess it will be enough for a place around 10th-15th position.

I didn't agree on always having weak stagings when I read this today in the forum but yes this year seems rather weak. Not because of their voices - I think they will feel and sound better again next week - but because of the light work. Somehow I don't like it at all. Somehow I'm also quite tired of black/white staging. It was really cool back in 2015 with but after that I was bored by it at most occasions.

is serving a solid entry and it may be enough for top 10, top 15 is more realistic though. Personally I'm not a fan at all but I respect their effort.

 

[aef]

Ukraine would have done great on a normal year. It's a great song with great staging.

I mean it's not that the song doesn't deserve top 10 or even top 5. It's a good Shum successor. It wouldn't be a contender in a normal year though. It will obviously get a big televoting support, I'm not too sure about the juries by now. I think some will give them extra points some will just vote the normal way, without thinking too much about the current situation.

All in all it might just be enough for the victory because it's a pretty weak year.

 

[HayashiM]

"We’ve had not 1 but 3 winners over the years that performed in the first position. These were 1984’s Diggi-Loo Diggi-Ley, 1976’s Save Your Kisses For Me and 1975’s Ding-A-Dong."

The winner always comes from the second half?

In the first instalment of 'Myths of the Eurovision Song Contest debunked', we look at the belief that the winner always comes from the second half of the show.

eurovision.tv

Wow, that article is a very nice example of some very ugly manipulation and misinterpretation of statistics. It tries to disprove a false hypothesis based on impartial data. For people who like statistics, this is actually a pretty disgusting job (nothing personal against you, just against the article, the person who put their name on it, and the BS opinion that the running order/half you are in doesn't matter regarding your result, because it totally does).

The claimed hypothesis the article puts to the readers mouth and then tries to "debunk" is "the winner always comes from the second half", which is an exaggerated nonsense. No one believes that. What people actually do believe (and the reason why artists get so happy when they draw the second half, and the true underlying sentiment this article tries to fight) is that it is better to perform in the second half. That belief is not only true, it is a statistically proven fact the article itself confirms when giving the all time number of winners from the 1st half as close to 1/3. If the half you perform in truly didn't matter as a factor, that number would've had to be close to 50%, given all other factors are the same, which they are.

Further manipulations include only choosing last 5 Eurovisions at that time as a sample, so let me do the exact same thing in reverse: out of 17 last ESC winners, only 4 (less than 1/4) came from the 1st half, and none of those 4 came from positions 1-9, they all had positions by the end of the 1st half.

Bottom line: the half you are in matters quite a lot regarding your victory prospects. There is most probably very little we can do about it, but let's just not hide our heads in the sand comforting ourselves with the same lie that the half you are in doesn't matter. It does.

 

[ItsJaden]

Wow, that article is a very nice example of some very ugly manipulation and misinterpretation of statistics. It tries to disprove a false hypothesis based on impartial data. For people who like statistics, this is actually a pretty disgusting job (nothing personal against you, just against the article, the person who put their name on it, and the BS opinion that the running order/half you are in doesn't matter regarding your result, because it totally does).

The claimed hypothesis the article puts to the readers mouth and then tries to "debunk" is "the winner always comes from the second half", which is an exaggerated nonsense. No one believes that. What people actually do believe (and the reason why artists get so happy when they draw the second half, and the true underlying sentiment this article tries to fight) is that it is better to perform in the second half. That belief is not only true, it is a statistically proven fact the article itself confirms when giving the all time number of winners from the 1st half as close to 1/3. If the half you perform in truly didn't matter as a factor, that number would've had to be close to 50%, given all other factors are the same, which they are.

Further manipulations include only choosing last 5 Eurovisions at that time as a sample, so let me do the exact same thing in reverse: out of 17 last ESC winners, only 4 (less than 1/4) came from the 1st half, and none of those 4 came from positions 1-9, they all had positions by the end of the 1st half.

Bottom line: the half you are in matters quite a lot regarding your victory prospects. There is most probably very little we can do about it, but let's just not hide our heads in the sand comforting ourselves with the same lie that the half you are in doesn't matter. It does.

I actually think this year it's a better thing to be in the first half. There are so many slow songs a lot of people will have tuned out for the second half. I love m, but loads of Eurolovers just don't

 

[ayzelto]

No worries, no way they will put Spain to open the show. There are other uptempo songs that will do “decent” in their semifinal and will take that spot. I am convinced that the Big 5 will be put somewhere close to this:

Germany - maybe 2nd spot?
France- I’d say 5-6th
Italy - 9th
Spain- 11-12th
Uk- 24th of maybe closing the show as Italy did in 2015?

 

[lacrymea]

UK about to overcome Italy in the odds.
Oh well, to each their own, I guess. I just don't see a winning song there. But I'm clearly on the minority here.

 

[crashworld]

"Hi, this is me and my ESCUnited family. RainyWoods is my father, and crashworld is my mother. I have two siblings, they're Iker and 94ayd. Oh, and Jonkonfui over here? He's my uncle."

 

[gingerale]

As if the producers will create a final draw that makes sense. I honestly expect some very shady moves this year.

 

[Yoozek]

We all know who the "press" people are. This is not to be taken seriously...

You're right. I bet that 2,10% comes from some Italian press members who were there. Those percents should've been added to Chanel

 

[crashworld]

As if the producers will create a final draw that makes sense. I honestly expect some very shady moves this year.

LOL, it won't be the first or the last. Watch Sweden getting the good slot again. Or shady move towards Albania. TY-PI-CAL.

 

[Yoozek]

LOL, it won't be the first or the last. Watch Sweden getting the good slot again. Or shady move towards Albania. TY-PI-CAL.

They can also take into consideration the amount of arguments between them and the country broadcaster teams in terms of "non-broken but fairly disabled" sun updates for the performances, money wasted, etc.

 

[midnightsun]

Wow, that article is a very nice example of some very ugly manipulation and misinterpretation of statistics. It tries to disprove a false hypothesis based on impartial data. For people who like statistics, this is actually a pretty disgusting job (nothing personal against you, just against the article, the person who put their name on it, and the BS opinion that the running order/half you are in doesn't matter regarding your result, because it totally does).

The claimed hypothesis the article puts to the readers mouth and then tries to "debunk" is "the winner always comes from the second half", which is an exaggerated nonsense. No one believes that. What people actually do believe (and the reason why artists get so happy when they draw the second half, and the true underlying sentiment this article tries to fight) is that it is better to perform in the second half. That belief is not only true, it is a statistically proven fact the article itself confirms when giving the all time number of winners from the 1st half as close to 1/3. If the half you perform in truly didn't matter as a factor, that number would've had to be close to 50%, given all other factors are the same, which they are.

Further manipulations include only choosing last 5 Eurovisions at that time as a sample, so let me do the exact same thing in reverse: out of 17 last ESC winners, only 4 (less than 1/4) came from the 1st half, and none of those 4 came from positions 1-9, they all had positions by the end of the 1st half.

Bottom line: the half you are in matters quite a lot regarding your victory prospects. There is most probably very little we can do about it, but let's just not hide our heads in the sand comforting ourselves with the same lie that the half you are in doesn't matter. It does.

I just googled who won from 1st position in Eurovision and that was the first article that came up

I personally think running order doesn’t matter, at least it doesn’t have that massive impact as some claim here.

I think it’s more important for a song what other song comes before and what comes after. This is influencing the chances much more imho.

I already wrote this a while ago… in my family we are most attentive when #1, #5-10, our own country, and the songs shortly before the end are on. Many friends of mine, who are usually not die hard Eurovision fans, are asleep after #20. Older people or kids might be asleep too by the time song 20 and onwards is on. The countries before and after the country with big voting numbers surely benefits or loses because people are more or even less attentive the time their own country is on or has finished.
These and many more factors influence the outcome much more I think.

 

[Jonkonfui]

I find it so funny in most of the comments about the rehearsals international press is explaining how each country is/is not avoiding the sun on stage. This is beyond crazy, the central element on the stage and countries have to think of ways of covering it or avoiding it.
After this i advise to anyone going to Turin next Saturday to think paying for a life insurance because there is no guarantee the ceiling does not collapse.

 

[Mainshow]

As if the producers will create a final draw that makes sense. I honestly expect some very shady moves this year.

If they (people in general) are o sure about Ukraine winning this year, I would love them to be drawn to #2 so that the death slot won´t continue existing from now on.

 

[crashworld]

If they (people in general) are o sure about Ukraine winning this year, I would love them to be drawn to #2 so that the death slot won´t continue existing from now on.

LOL! If that happens, people will still say they win because of what is happening to their country.
If they dare, just put one of the hot favourites that draw the first half in slot #2.
If the entry still manages a top 3, I'll say running order doesn't matter.

 

[JonasS]

Ukraine would have done great on a normal year. It's a great song with great staging.

Respectfully disagree. In my personal opinion, the entry (in a vacuum) is quite weak. There are plenty other entries this year that I would consider "better". Can't realistically see the Ukrainian one kicking off a wave internationally after the contest (like e. g. Måneskin did). It's definitely not something I would listen to outside the contest. Just my opinion though.

 

[HarryUK]

Is the turquoise carpet tomorrow at 3pm BST or CEST? YouTube just says 3pm

 

[Bobjan FR]

The Aussievision podcast suggested something similar. They said that no jury member would want to be seen as “the one who didn’t give Ukraine any points” simply because it would be bad optics. So jury members who may have had Ukraine just outside their top 10s might be inclined to bump them up a few ranks into the 1-3 pts range just for good measure. Repeat this for 40 countries and it certainly will add up in terms of overall score. Obviously if juries are putting Ukraine in the bottom half of their ranking then it doesn’t really apply.

That's exactly one of my thoughts, ukraine had no reason to fail on jury and will overscore on public vote anyway i still don't see how they couldn't win now.

 

[Ezio]

Respectfully disagree. In my personal opinion, the entry (in a vacuum) is quite weak. There are plenty other entries this year that I would consider "better". Can't realistically see the Ukrainian one kicking off a wave internationally after the contest (like e. g. Måneskin did). It's definitely not something I would listen to outside the contest. Just my opinion though.

Stefania is not up to par with Shum. But Shum was butchered by the juries for all the wrong reasons. This year juries will rallye around Ukraine because jurors don't wanna put their names out there for blanking an allied country in war. Welcome to the age of self-censorhip and political correctness.