the running order does not change the fact that this semi has 12 clear advancing contenders but things just got intetesting because of the paenda situation. i was already gradually moving to the "it qualifies" side, but the draw sealed it, i think
has a good chance to impress and go through.
before the order i was thinking it was
that would die to let
in, but then he got to close the semi. i still don't have any confidence in calling the second odd man out in this semi, but it looks more likely to be
. yes, they have all their point givers in the semi and they have advanced with much worse songs, but i don't think that will be enough to overcome the huge competition and bad draw. then again, he does have a revamp to show us.......
everything else stays the same with some minor adjustments to flop potential (
is more likely,
is less likely, etc), and i still think
's chance is too small because it would take too many countries wasting their chances. my prediction in order of likelihood is now
with
very close behind and able to blindside all but
and the other six likely not making it.