Erdogan will win again.
Aren´t Turkish people in Germany (who are VERY conservative and VERY supportive of Erdogan) allowed to vote for 7 days?
Erdogan will probably get another 75%+ from them - Diaspora Turkish people may be the deciding factor once again
It is getting more politic-central than Eurovision so I am not sure if this is the right place to discuss it but Turks living in Germany should not be an absolute indicator of the election results. Truth be told, the most unqualified and conservative Turks immigrated to Germany so their image there is way worse than the Turks around the world and, obviously, in Turkey. So that means a big majority of them will forever support right or far-right candidates.
But the situation in Turkey is much different. The western-minded people do not vote for Erdoğan because of his ideologies, and now his not-fanatic supporters are turning their backs to him because of the economy getting horribly worse. The only problem is that the opposition's candidate is the least supported favorite opposition (Kılıçdaroğlu) since other choices (Yavaş, İmamoğlu) were more likely to win against Erdoğan, so that is the only handicap here but that does not guarantee anything.
Given the fact that Erdoğan got 52% of the votes in 2018 and now he has lost supporters in the past 5 years, one can argue that Erdoğan will be elected again. The "undecided" people will play a major role in the result, hence why it is more complicated to predict now.