Semi 2: Who do you think will qualify? Predictions Thread

[JamieBrown]

Same procedure like in the other thread

 

[Realest]

Australia, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Hungary, Serbia, Netherlands.

 

[henhu]

According to my simulation...



( 10th with 106p, 9th place has 151p)

 

[joancamo]

,,,,,,,,,

 

[DaFlo]

Montenegro coming for that shock surprise.

 

[Chorizo]

because of the diaspora and political support from certain countries
because of the diaspora and their neighbors



I think and might qualify instead of Serbia and Denmark.

 

[carl1]

 

[Citelis]

 

[revallsay]

 

[Himan]

Australia, will qualify with the juries, I may even hope not
Sweden, good song for the public
Denmark, good song
Netherlands, good song
Ukraine, good song
Hungary, special song
---------------
Norway, meh song known face
Poland, good song, but not on the podium
Russia, meh song, diaspora
Latvia, good song for me, maybe not the public
---------------
Romania, meh song, diaspora
Serbia, meh song, diaspora
Slovenia, meh song
Montenegro, okay song, diaspora?
Moldova, meh song,
-------------
San Marino, bad song
Georgia, bad song
Malta, bad song

I really don't know what will happen. This is kind of a west/north against east/south game. Australia, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Latvia, Norway, Poland are on the first part.
Ukraine, Russia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Montenegro and Moldova on the other side. The other ones are kinda fucked, especially with those songs.
Of course this is very oversimplified

I want Russia out maybe Australia out and Slovenia,Montenegro in.

 

[mauve]

Australia
Denmark
Hungary
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Serbia
Slovenia
Sweden

 

[Kaz]

1st Sweden
2nd Australia
3rd Hungary
4th Ukraine
5th Netherlands
6th Norway
7th Russia
8th Latvia
9th Malta
10th Slovenia
----------
11th Denmark
12th Poland
13th Romania
14th Serbia
15th Moldova
16th Montenegro
17th Georgia
18th San Marino

 

[blue00eyes]

My prediction:

1. Sweden
2. Norway
3. Australia
4. The Netherlands
5. Poland
6. Romania
7. Ukraine
8. Denmark
9. Russia
10. Latvia

_------_-------_
11. Hungary
12. Georgia
13.Moldova
14. Serbia
15. Malta
16. Montenegro
17. Slovenia
18. San Marino

 

[tsegaye]

The safe ones:
1. - This is not me being patriotic, if we were in the first semi we maybe would not place top 3. I can't see juries not liking this one and the televoters will be amazed by the staging. First in both?
2. - After Sweden i'd say it's really close, it could be four countries placing second. My bet is on Ukraine however who might close the show and will place 3rd with the jury and around 5th with televoters.
3. - Solid entry, will place around 5th with both.
4. - Will shockingly (maybe) place 2nd with televoters, just inside the top 10 with the juries.
5. - Will place 2nd with the juries and just inside the top 10 with the televoters.
6. - Probably will do better with the juries than the televoters, this feels like Norway last year. 4th with the juries is my prediction and inside the top 10 with televoters.
7. 3rd in the televote and outside the top 10 with juries, but will be enough to qualify safely.
------------------------ The borderliners
8. - Even if I don't want to, I think it will qualify. BUT it's not completely sure, the juries might not like this at all and if some doesn't recognize him (I mean with the televotes as well) this could go much worse than expected, because it's not a great song. But I predict just inside the top 10 with both, doing better with the televoters.
9. - Gosh, this is so open! This could end up top 5 in this semi but also bottom 5 I feel like. My guess is that it will place around 8th with juries and just outside top 10 with the televoters.
10. - Will do really good, the question is if Serbia is fighting for the same votes here? If they have a performance that stands out there might be room for both. The juries will probably not love it and might have it in their bottom 5.
11. - Predicted for a long time that this would qualify, but now I feel they will miss out. Around 5th with juries and bottom 5 with televoters.
12. - Many predict this will qualify, I'm not so sure. Will be top 7 with the juries, but just outside the top 10 with televoters, maybe 13th or something like that.
13. - Will be borderline in both, top 10 with televoters but just outside with the juries.
14. - I think it will miss the top 10 with both, but that might be enough to qualify, who knows.
------------------------ No chance
15. - Will probably place outside top 10 in both.
16. - I think they're heading towards their first NQ, and won't be anywhere near qualifying either.
17. - Not strong enough to make an impact either with the juries nor the televoters.
18. - May end up last with both

This can end up in million of ways, this will be a very exciting semi. I don't feel like we've had that many borderliners in the same semi for years, so it will be a bloodbath!

 

[xymothe]

- This one looks easier to predict. and will be NQs, the others could be qualified, but that won't be easy for them.

 

[theCONWEL]

could easily do it as well though

 

[A-lister]

In alphabetical order the entries I predict will qualify:

(more evenly distributed between juries and televoters, with emphasize on jury votes)
(evenly distributed)
(mostly due to juries)
(mostly due to televoters)
(mostly due to juries)
(evenly distributed)
(evenly distributed between diaspora televoting and political juries)
(evenly distributed)
(more televoters than juries)

last one could be either or

 

[Alaska49]

ugh. this semi. usually i get at least 7 or 8 qualifiers right already in march, but if i get more than 5 in this semi it will be a victory. qualifies, doesn't... and anything else in between could feasibly happen.


i find the poll to be entirely not representative of their actual chances in this case. with the lack of obvious locks, people are voting in the perennial qualifiers, such as and , but i don't see them as a sure thing, specially which did not get my vote. yulia is just not a good performer and russia has done kind of bad in the televote before with songs that aren't even as nondescript as hers. did end up getting my vote because for some reason people seem to like it, but ugh. i hope i get this wrong. at least seems like it will die considering even this poll doesn't have any confidence in them.


as for the others, i favour the songs which stand out as different when things seem too open, which greatly favours . is a perennial qualifier that also did their homework, so i see little reason to not bet on them. this leaves me with four spots, which i gave to (much stronger than and should get most of the televotes of the balkan loving demographic), (laura is possibly the best performer of the 43 acts and should get a huge jury result), (i absolutely don't think rybak is safe but name brand might just be enough to get him through over other acts with similar appeal and jury prospects) and HEAR ME OUT DON'T LEAVE, (it has enormous televote appeal and they are good enough performers that juries might not bury them that much. if hey mamma did well with juries, why can't this scrape by in 11th or 12th with juries, and let the televote do the talking?).


so, my pre-rehearsal stage prediction is


please note that other than and probably , i have very little confidence that all of those will actually pan out. so many of them are on the edge and could easily be replaced by (guaranteed jury advantage and might get televotes), (they would easily be in my ten if lukas meijer had his shit together and performed well), (maybe europe will be enlightened enough to give this the qualification it deserves??), (i refuse to even try to predict how europe will receive a georgian entry), and of course and might just keep the status quo alive. really only (lol) and (why vote for this with right there?) i am confident to write off.

 

[LalehForWD]

Voted:

Jessica Mauboy - We got Love
Rasmussen - Higher Ground
Laura Rizotto - Funny Girl
DoReDos - My lucky day
Waylon - Outlaw in 'Em
Alexander Rybak - That's how you write a song
Sanja Ilic & Balkanika - Nova Deca
Lea Sirk - Hvala, ne!
Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance you off
Mélovin - Under the Ladder

bolds are top 3

Already I think Slovenia will lose out to - unfortunately, but voted like this anyway

 

[Iker]

Australia (but I hope it will not)
Denmark
Moldova
The Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Sweden
Ukraine
Malta