My thoughts about this...
Montenegro is obviously out.
It would be Russia's case (considering the lack of quality of their entry), but they will get some televoting support. However, juries will hate it! Maybe this year Russia won't be in the final.
I guess the qualifiers will be Denmark (massive televoting support and juries support as well), Greece, Cyprus (massive televoting support), Ireland, Austria, Romania (great televoting support), Finland, Hungary, Iceland (massive juries support).
Like I said previously, I have some doubts concerning Russia's qualification. The 10th spot... Could be Belgium (with juries help) or Israel (with televoting support).