lasse braun
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hey,a lot of cheaters here. 
Last edited:
JESC 2021
- Thread starter Mainshow
- Start date
- Watchers 15
lasse braun
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little rule changing? - this girl sings all the songs and we vote then for the countries.
goncalovieira
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Well, I find this JESC edition quite weak. There is anything that could fly to my Spotify playlist.
However, after listening to all songs and performances, I am quite sure that the winner will be between France and Italy. (AGAIN)
About Portugal, my taste shouts out the song to the very last place. Even though, I have the feeling that will enter in the top 10 for the first time.
Poor girls from last years. Overpassed by that snoozefest.
However, after listening to all songs and performances, I am quite sure that the winner will be between France and Italy. (AGAIN)
About Portugal, my taste shouts out the song to the very last place. Even though, I have the feeling that will enter in the top 10 for the first time.
Poor girls from last years. Overpassed by that snoozefest.
Dr J
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Kudos For JESC Administration, For A Change
The voting system was better this time. Last time, I remember the voter got 5 votes and had to vote for 3 countries, so one could double vote for one or two countries. Now the voter gets 3 votes and has to cast them for 3 different countries: sensible. I tried to double vote for North Macedonia and my first vote was cancelled: as it should be.
So, if my model of 2020 is correct, 300,000 Instagram followers voting twice for France (600,000) plus 123,000 votes from francophone Europe, Italy, Malta and elsewhere, how does this system change the result? Remember this is a model: I am not saying that is exactly what happened. First, the 300,000 cannot vote twice, so Valentina only gets 300,000 + 123,000 elsewhere = 423,000. That is not enough to beat Spain, in 2nd place with 471,000. Tonight JESC would probably have been in Seville and Solea would be dancing a flamenco on stage, with Levi in the running to win instead of Enzo.
But there are two big holes in the system still that scupper the scenario in the preceding paragraphs.
1. I went to the JESC voting screen and double voted all the candidates I voted for yesterday.
So a committed follower can still vote an infinite number of times for their preferred candidate.
The difference is that 2 other countries share that largesse with the first preference. Would
that have overturned the result in 2020? It is hard to predict: it depends on whether the voters
all gave their other two votes to the same candidates. If all 300,000 voted for Spain as well as
France, we could still be watching that flamenco tonight. If they scattered their votes
around, except none for Spain, Valentina could still have won. Best strategy: for the new system,
make a coalition with 2 other candidates who are unlikely to get many votes. Olena (Ukraine)
sort of did that by singing with and promoting candidates like Ireland on her instagram but
including Poland and France there could have undone the benefit. Solution: pre-register voters on
their telephones by giving each registrant a password simple enough for children to use (e.g.
"cow") when they want to vote. That will stop multiple voting and also allow us to identify the
source countries for voting by asking the pre-registrant to choose their country from a list. Then
either: (1) only allow a voter to vote for one country or (2) give the voter 3 votes but with a rank
letter. For example, I would have voted North Macedonia A Georgia B and Poland C. A should
count as 3 votes, B should count as 2 votes and C should count as 1 : so I would have voted 3
times for North Macedonia, twice for Georgia and once for Poland. That would avoid the linking
of 3 candidates that you get with the current scheme or, more precisely, quantify the link so it
reflects the voter's real choice. France would have still won in 2020 under rank choice voting but
they deserved it because Valentina brought so many voters to the total. If you want to stop
mobilisation of voters, you have to limit voting to show night, ban pre-show videos and ads and
have 2 votes on show night: the first to choose the top two contenders and the second to choose
the winners from the top two contenders. Or rank choice voting could eliminate the need for the
2nd vote as it might produce a majority on the first vote.
2. As Mainshow has shown above, you can still multiple vote from different modes: e.g. once by
computer, once by smartphone. Same result as in paragraph 1 and same solution of pre-
registering phone numbers and giving passwords. Then computer votes would be impossible.
Alternatively, pre-registrants could choose to register to vote on a phone or by verified e-mail but
not both.
"Simples!" to quote a meerkat.
The voting system was better this time. Last time, I remember the voter got 5 votes and had to vote for 3 countries, so one could double vote for one or two countries. Now the voter gets 3 votes and has to cast them for 3 different countries: sensible. I tried to double vote for North Macedonia and my first vote was cancelled: as it should be.
So, if my model of 2020 is correct, 300,000 Instagram followers voting twice for France (600,000) plus 123,000 votes from francophone Europe, Italy, Malta and elsewhere, how does this system change the result? Remember this is a model: I am not saying that is exactly what happened. First, the 300,000 cannot vote twice, so Valentina only gets 300,000 + 123,000 elsewhere = 423,000. That is not enough to beat Spain, in 2nd place with 471,000. Tonight JESC would probably have been in Seville and Solea would be dancing a flamenco on stage, with Levi in the running to win instead of Enzo.
But there are two big holes in the system still that scupper the scenario in the preceding paragraphs.
1. I went to the JESC voting screen and double voted all the candidates I voted for yesterday.
So a committed follower can still vote an infinite number of times for their preferred candidate.
The difference is that 2 other countries share that largesse with the first preference. Would
that have overturned the result in 2020? It is hard to predict: it depends on whether the voters
all gave their other two votes to the same candidates. If all 300,000 voted for Spain as well as
France, we could still be watching that flamenco tonight. If they scattered their votes
around, except none for Spain, Valentina could still have won. Best strategy: for the new system,
make a coalition with 2 other candidates who are unlikely to get many votes. Olena (Ukraine)
sort of did that by singing with and promoting candidates like Ireland on her instagram but
including Poland and France there could have undone the benefit. Solution: pre-register voters on
their telephones by giving each registrant a password simple enough for children to use (e.g.
"cow") when they want to vote. That will stop multiple voting and also allow us to identify the
source countries for voting by asking the pre-registrant to choose their country from a list. Then
either: (1) only allow a voter to vote for one country or (2) give the voter 3 votes but with a rank
letter. For example, I would have voted North Macedonia A Georgia B and Poland C. A should
count as 3 votes, B should count as 2 votes and C should count as 1 : so I would have voted 3
times for North Macedonia, twice for Georgia and once for Poland. That would avoid the linking
of 3 candidates that you get with the current scheme or, more precisely, quantify the link so it
reflects the voter's real choice. France would have still won in 2020 under rank choice voting but
they deserved it because Valentina brought so many voters to the total. If you want to stop
mobilisation of voters, you have to limit voting to show night, ban pre-show videos and ads and
have 2 votes on show night: the first to choose the top two contenders and the second to choose
the winners from the top two contenders. Or rank choice voting could eliminate the need for the
2nd vote as it might produce a majority on the first vote.
2. As Mainshow has shown above, you can still multiple vote from different modes: e.g. once by
computer, once by smartphone. Same result as in paragraph 1 and same solution of pre-
registering phone numbers and giving passwords. Then computer votes would be impossible.
Alternatively, pre-registrants could choose to register to vote on a phone or by verified e-mail but
not both.
"Simples!" to quote a meerkat.
Last edited:
Kitakaze
Active member
For now, I suppose nothing notable will change with the voting unless enough broadcasters raise their concerns, but for me the obvious solution to improve the system would be to simply emulate the system in place at Eurovision or at least geo-block people from voting for their own country. I don’t see why the online vote is necessary as it’s no secret it favours those countries with large populations and viewerships and essentially does nothing to nullify the influence of political or bloc-voting. With viewership at an all-time high, they’ve succeeded in drawing in new interest so they can afford to rein it in and focus on fixing the flaws. Just like at Eurovision, voting needs to be done using a registered cellphone to determine where the vote is coming from for the fairest result. I understand the EBU are motivated by numbers and restricting access to voting could lead to a temporary decrease in viewership, but surely the contest’s credibility and the idea that any child should have an equal chance of winning should be of greater importance. You’d think that that’s what is ultimately going to have more of an impact upon its popularity and longevity.
Just to add, it’s interesting that the Instagram stats were reflected in the results last year but I don’t think a contestant’s online following has any more significance than online promotion does prior to the show. If the song and video has enough prior appeal, it’s going to generate online momentum that results in rallying people to vote for it on the night regardless. Valentina’s Instagram fanbase of 300,000 last year also seems insignificant when you consider over 4.5 million people turned out to vote. Not to say her online following didn’t help her, rather it could only’ve been of partial significance when you consider the other factors that would’ve won her votes from the majority of people who would’ve had no idea who she was. The actual strengths of the song and performance and her telegenic charm would’ve appealed to anyone and it was an obvious favourite going in on those grounds alone. If anything, I’d be looking more into Google trends, the ratio of likes and views on YouTube and hype across all social media platforms rather than just Instagram followers.
Just to add, it’s interesting that the Instagram stats were reflected in the results last year but I don’t think a contestant’s online following has any more significance than online promotion does prior to the show. If the song and video has enough prior appeal, it’s going to generate online momentum that results in rallying people to vote for it on the night regardless. Valentina’s Instagram fanbase of 300,000 last year also seems insignificant when you consider over 4.5 million people turned out to vote. Not to say her online following didn’t help her, rather it could only’ve been of partial significance when you consider the other factors that would’ve won her votes from the majority of people who would’ve had no idea who she was. The actual strengths of the song and performance and her telegenic charm would’ve appealed to anyone and it was an obvious favourite going in on those grounds alone. If anything, I’d be looking more into Google trends, the ratio of likes and views on YouTube and hype across all social media platforms rather than just Instagram followers.
EDC0708
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Reading the terms and conditions, they do track the country you are from, so it wouldn't be tricky to implement a rule that you can't vote for your own country. I imagine they only count the first set of votes cast from an ip address, although the rules don't mention about multiple voting.
shameless
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Sorry but Lenin and Hitler are not the same thing. If you want to be judgemental you should get your facts right.
njdevils94
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I guess Olena won't be getting points from the russian jury.Kirkorov, Panaiotov, Manizha, RAY!, Valera Kuzakov (The Voice Kids winner) are in the Russian jury.
Dr J
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Right, 300,000 is only 6.7% of 4.5 million. But it becomes more significant when one realises that Valentina won with a total of only 16.1% of the vote because JESC uses a very un-European "first past the post" system. Add in the likelihood of followers (people who really like Valentina) to vote at least twice (once before the show and once after the show) and the followers could translate into 600,000 votes. Yet it is also possible that those individual followers did not make her victory and they are just indicating that Valentina Tronel had a lot more supporters out there, not all of whom are following her on instagram: because she was already a child superstar before she came to JESC.
Dr J
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OMG, let's not debate which mass murderer is better! And Lenin did his damage in Armenia, the country Arpin supposedly represents: but she doesn't care. Let's care!
Dr J
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Sorry for my ignorance but who are those guys/gals, etc and what is the significance of their being in the jury?Kirkorov
Dr J
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Generally well-done and quite helpful!
I would exchange North Macedonia and Georgia but agree they should be Top 2. I think Number 1 should have a message. Georgia's song has a unique vibe and really makes me feel good but the message does not seem to be much more than "I'm cute and I can say 'If you believe me or dream, I believe you' in French." With respect, I think that Poland and France are grossly underrated in your ranking: I think they should be No. 3 and No. 4, respectively. My strongest evidence for that is your oral review of them, which really sounds like a No. 3 and No. 4 level rating.
For what it's worth.
Kitakaze
Active member
I’d probably back Armenia for the win now over France or Poland but with so many variables in the online vote anything could happen. Enjoy the show anyway, everyone!
NemesisNick
Well-known member
I'm now watching the Junior Eurovision Song Contest 2021 online from the UK. It's a pity neither the UK nor any of its component nations is taking part this year, but anyway, good luck to the 19 participating countries. May the best song win.
VirginiaVision
Well-known member
The YouTube broadcast isn’t Geoblocked! God bless
NemesisNick
Well-known member
#GER Germany - Quite a lively song to start with, but it's hardly a winning song. What was the significance of the rainbow on the background screen which appeared from time to time?
VirginiaVision
Well-known member
My cousin’s cat left the room and started repeatedly meowing during Georgia’s performance. I don’t think she liked it