just a prediction, trying to keep my taste aside :
These are the most likely to me, Netherlands cause a lot of people seem to love it, Sweden cause is just tailored to win, France the song isn't winner-worthy but the overall package is, Iceland is just a big question mark but it's possible for them to achieve it.
after that :
Italy could pull a win but the staging doesn't elevate the song at all, Australia is good but a little bit too campy/funny to be considered a contender, I think the 4 above have more chances.
Well... I don't personnally think it's gonna win, the staging is a trainwreck but a lot of people seem to love it and it has a huge support (and it already has a huge support, Sergey is a star in east europe)
from the top 10 odds, Azerbaijan won't win either as well as Switzerland. Norway is... mmh for me it could win but a lot of people don't think so.