This is probably between the Netherlands, and dark horse France. Sweden is not winning, because it won't be in the televote Top5, Iceland is not winning because of the jury, Italy is not winning because their staging is once again awful. France can somehow pull this off with a lot of sympathy voting if the jury won't hate it, but the much likelier outcome is that NED just wins the jury vote and nobody will be able to catch up to them in the televote. This is the most predictable race for the win in a long time. Let go of Italy, Russia, Iceland, Switzerland and all the others, it's not going to happen.