Since we switch from RTL to ARD and the audience is a completely different one, I am just simply HOPING that the older audience will vote for Moss. Just a small hope, but that is all we have left for now. Who knows? We have seen so many things happening and I hope that just like some other years the act with the largest fanbase won't win.
I doubt the age of the viewers makes much of a difference. If anything, switching to ARD might mean less viewers, which will be an advantage for Feuerschwanz, because their fanbase will tune in anyway and make up a bigger part of the voting Population.
And it's not just the size of their fanbase - it's also the dedication. Lord of the lost had 214.375 votes in 2023, that's nearly as much as Isaak and Max in 2024
combined (they had 110.116 and 107.072 respectively).
Now some people might say that was due to "Anti-Ikke" voting, and sure, maybe to some degree. But that was a bubble phenomen, and the bubble also supported Ryk last year for the most part - and that did not make him come close to LOTL numbers.
As someone "in the scene": IMO the biggest factor was really only Power voting and the Support from the metal scene as a whole. LOTL Fans from outside Germany had german Fans send them SIM cards, german Fans brought additional SIM cards (and I do not mean 1 or 2, but like, 20), Fans from other Bands voted for LOTL because they belonged to the metal scene (including people who do not care for LOTL or Eurovision). Feuerschwanz might very well get the same treatment, and than I doubt any "appeal to the Mamas in the audience" charme Can make up for it.
And honestly, regarding Moss' chances - we do have Slovenia and Italy, and Italy auto-qualifies too. There is also still a high chance of Josh winning in Portugal, and Czechias entry is ballad-y as well (Though we will need to see how much exactly). And Josh or Adonks *really* do not need to hide behind Moss vocally (I'd argue they are both better). So I'm really not sure how much he will Stick out. He'd still get some jury points, but it might not be Isaak-Level tbh.