Sweden
! And I am going to tell you exactly why I think so:
For the first time since ESC 1988, I think we (Sweden) has THE best entry in a certain ESC year, so I can totally unbiased say we truly deserve to win this year. Also I think, although it's a good year in general, that the song really is a stand-out one.
Contrary to what some say, there have never been an entry like that in Eurovision before. It is very much "on-trend" (which too often is rare in Eurovision) with the current dance-club sound, and I get Guetta/Sia "Titanium" vibes out of this one. It would do Eurovision good to finally have a winner that may cross-over and actually have a life AFTER Eurovision, and not just in the memory of hardcore ESC fans, and that way add some well-needed credibility to this show finally.
Also, it does a unique job in combining a contemporary clubby pop sound, with introspective and artistry... which is very rare not only in Eurovision, but in general. This is by far NOT a "cliché" performance, which it could very well be. Also Loreen IS a very good live singer.
Sorry to the rest, but I think this is the total package and deserves to win.
Song? check!
Voice? check!
Show? check!
Originality/Aristry? check!
Hit potential? check!