I've taken a look at the last 5 placings of each country in its semi final and calculated its average rank (Australia just participated in four semi finals). After that, I ranked all countries based on their average scores. I know it's not going to happen that way because the songs, artists and performances are a way more important factor but just based on the country's history, these would be the qualifiers of 2020:
SEMI 1:
#1
Sweden [2,2]
#2
Australia [3,0]
#3
Ukraine [4,8]
#4
Israel [5,6]
#5
Russia [5,8]
#6
Norway [6,0]
#7
Cyprus [6,0]
#8
Belgium [6,8]
#9
Romania [7,4]
#10
Azerbaijan [8,0]
--------------------------
#11
Lithuania [9,6]
#12
Malta [10,2]
#13
Slovenia [10,6]
#14
Ireland[11,6]
#15
Belarus [11,8]
#16
North Macedonia [12,2]
#17
Croatia [12,4]
SEMI 2:
#1
Austria [7,2]
#2
Bulgaria [7,2]
#3
Czech Republic [8,0]
#4
Estonia [8,8]
#5
Serbia [9,2]
#6
Armenia [9,4]
#7
Poland [9,6]
#8
Moldova [10,0]
#9
Greece [10,2]
#10
Portugal [10,8]
--------------------------
#11
Latvia [11,0]
#12
Denmark [11,0]
#13
Georgia [11,2]
#14
Albania [11,4]
#15
Switzerland [12,8]
#16
Iceland [13,2]
#17
Finland [14,0]
#18
San Marino [14,2]
Based on the "ranking" history, one can see that Semi 1 isn't really that "open". The gap between #10
, the last qualifier and #11
is 1,6 whilst the gap between the last qualifier and the first non-qualifier in Semi 2 is VERY narrow: 0,2.
Also, it seems that semi 1 is full of sharks and power houses. The first eight countries (Sweden to Belgium) have a better average than the winner of Semi 2 (
). Semi 2 has got the four least successful Eurovision countries in recent years:
,
,
and
.
However, one can see that Semi 2 is way more competitive. The difference between #1
and #10
is only 3 whilst the difference in Semi 1 is quite high: 5,8.
That list is also quite revealing, imo. It shows that the days of Azerbaijan as a clear qualifier are long gone. Same applies to Greece whilst I really think that
and
and
got a very good draw.
However, that list got its flaws as well: I don't think that neither Iceland, Denmark nor Finland will be absent from the Grand Final but the ranking also reveals that they are no Sweden or Norway and really need to come up with a strong entry to benifit from their draw.