Hello everyone, my students. Sit down. Professor H.P. Lovecraft will comment on yesterday's games coldly. I hope my comments don't offend anyone.
Many are surprised by Austria's victory. I admit that I also considered Ukraine more dangerous but I was also aware of its weaknesses.
Before talking about the match between Ukraine and Austria, we analyze the two teams:
Ukraine:
a) Best players: Jarmolenko, Yaremchuk and Malinovskiy (all the attacking department).
b) Game characteristics: tenacity, speed and lethal restarts.
c) Weaknesses: poor defense.
Austria:
a) Best players: Arnautovic, Sabitzer and Alaba.
b) Game characteristics: 50's style of play.
c) Weaknesses: 1950s style of play.
d) Special note: limiting their only champion Alaba in defense is both a weakness and a winning move (depending on the case).
If we compare the "best players" we can say that the two teams are equal but this is not the case. Ukraine has only three attacking players while Austria has one good player per department: 1 in attack (Arnautovic), 1 in midfield (Sabitzer) and 1 in defense (Alaba). We can thus see that while Ukraine is unbalanced in attack, Austria has greater stability.
If we compare the "game characteristics" we can say that Ukraine is clearly favored. If Ukraine had played with Austria as they played against the Netherlands the match with Austria would have ended 3-1. However, Ukraine is an unbalanced team in attack and with a poor defense. The worst opponents for Ukraine are those who know how to be solid between midfield and defense (just like Austria). This leads us to re-evaluate the Netherlands too: strong in attack, excellent quality of the individuals but poor defense. Only the enormous quality of the singles allowed the Netherlands to s
Austria. The Dutch might wake up from this dream with slightly cracked bones. Perhaps only the less insidious scoreboard could help them reach the semifinals: the only dangers are a Spain with sterile ball possession and a defense that is not excellent and a more solid England but that does not score even if the opponent says "Ok you can goal".
Let's go back to Ukraine - Austria, now let's address the weaknesses: Ukraine is clearly penalized here. The 1950s style of play (density, running, counter-attack and danger from inactive balls) clearly dominates those who are not balanced in midfield and in defense. Unless you have players like Messi, Rakitic, Suarez, Neymar and Busquets in the same team, without solidity between midfield and defense most of the time you are defeated. The imbalance is not only having a constant danger in defense but also leads to not being able to build your own game.
The special note: Alaba, in this case, allowed Austria to have more quality than Ukraine.
The match between Ukraine and Austria was a "partita da sonno" (sleep match) rather than a "partita da sogno" (dream match). The match was resolved thanks to a surprise goal. This is the summary of the game.
Anyway ... after analyzing strengths and weaknesses, are you still surprised by Austria's victory over Ukraine?
We Italians feared Ukraine above all because both Sheva and Tassotti and Malinovskiy know Italian football but ... our fear ends here. We would have been an even worse opponent for Ukraine than Austria (we are solid but with higher quality).
I respect the Austrian team and I am sure that we will face the match without underestimating them. The ball is round and knockout games are games where no one can miss anything.
Regarding Denmark - Russia, it was obvious that Denmark would win. Denmark should have "won and convinced" after the "Shock Eriksen" or they would have been eliminated. To this determination must be added the quality of the Danish team (tenth in the FIFA ranking and the only one capable of intimidating Belgium).
Instead, Finland - Belgium ... of course, Belgium is superior but Finland was eager to reach an important milestone. What would happen?
Finland's match was excellent (the Italian commentators gave it a 10 + rating): attention in defense, run and courage in proposing to attack (although ... apart from Pukki and Kamara ... there aren't many others who offer good play in attack). This game surprised me. Although Belgium are a very strong team, Finland have decided to fight "with their heads held high" and not offer the typical "Swedish anti-football" (11 individuals inside the penalty area and the "hope of Sunday goal" ). However, this was not enough. I have seen a Belgium with too much will to win ... too strange and too cruel a will. If Belgium could have scored 10 goals, they would have done it with happiness. They pushed on the accelerator until the 90th minute. If Belgium had lost they would have been placed in the "simplest part" of the board, if they had tied it would have finished earlier anyway ... Belgium could also have won 1-0 but I didn't really understand the second goal. The Finns deserved to dream of passing the group stage. In football there must be no favoritism but, when a match is useless for the purposes of statistics and you also risk injuries, fatigue and yellow/red cards, you can also not play with conviction. Italy by putting their "national B" did this against Wales and allowed the British to qualify for the round of 16. Ukraine and the other "third place" thank Belgium. That said, I hope Finland continues its growth path.
I conclude by saying that today the European formula is 24 teams (for obvious reasons of sponsors and TV rights) but only those who manage to qualify for the second round can truly say that they are a team that could have competed in the "old European championships" where the teams were 16 and the highest quality. Those we have seen are similar to qualifiers. Only from the round of 16 onwards things start to get serious. The European championships are however very competitive and much more difficult than the world championship where unacceptable teams are presented. It is true, the world championship is more exotic and exciting but overcoming the days against Panama, New Zealand, Tunisia and Iran is much less difficult (then it also happens to fail simple groups). Only from the quarter-finals onwards does the world championship become very difficult: our teams can be joined by Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and, to a lesser extent, Colombia, Chile and Mexico. For our teams, reaching the end or winning the European championships it means that the team could have a chance to win the world championship.