ESC 2019 Betting Odds

[Realest]

#5

 

[Jacketh1]

Looking at odds this year, I can still see a lot in the top ten that have got a chance of winning (Soldi 6th for example). Normally by this time we've got two or three 'obvious' favourites (last year it was Israel, Cyprus, Sweden, the year before it was Italy, Portugal, Bulgaria).

I don't really feel like we have that 'band 1' yet. Netherlands is an obvious favourite, but after that you can argue who are the other front runners down to about 11th.

It's worth remembering that even though people cry 'the odds don't matter' every year, I can't remember the last time the winner was not in the top three in the odds before the final, even Azerbaijan were third in the odds in 2011 before the show, so they are a really reliable way of judging the winner once the rehearsals, and then the semis, are completed.

It's defo an unusual year though, so who knows - perhaps the trend will break.

 

[LastDreamer]

# 8.

Team Kate. x12s

 

[4815162342]

It's worth remembering that even though people cry 'the odds don't matter' every year, I can't remember the last time the winner was not in the top three in the odds before the final, even Azerbaijan were third in the odds in 2011 before the show, so they are a really reliable way of judging the winner once the rehearsals, and then the semis, are completed.

Like I said in the swedish thread 2014 was the last time in the odds when the winner was nowhere near the top even on day of semi-final 1. Austria was around 10th place at that time.

In the past years it is more and more about hype regarding the odds. People are following those rehearsal live streams and as soon as someone gets a 'huge' reaction, they are throwing their money on those entries.
Last year when Netta was not meeting the expections the 'market' (or the people) were desperately looking for other possible winners. Esctips and some others were doing hype for Cyprus and Norway. And if some of those people start claiming Rybak could get 300+ points in the televote because he is so charistmatic and because he is Rybak and everyone will be remembering him other people in the betting chat start believing it and saying the same which last year led to a point when Rybak was suddenly #1 in the odds for a short time.

 

[Citelis]

France already 4th in odds!

 

[Antho]

3rd now! And he got the 2nd half. wow

 

[Pawhlen]

I wonder if this also is a "hoax" like many sites claim our climbing were, because the fans can never be bias

in fact both , and has climbed after every rehearsal they have had, that must mean something at least

drifting until he now got 2nd half and directly the odds became blue at some oddsmakers

Jacketh: we were 5-6th in the odds after the semifinals last year

 

[GermanBango]

Well we have reached the point where the odds are just completely crazy

 

[Pawhlen]

Well we have reached the point where the odds are just completely crazy

Which I told you it would be some days ago

 

[GermanBango]

Which I told you it would be some days ago

It`s basically an annual ritual, isn`t it ?

 

[Pawhlen]

It`s basically an annual ritual, isn`t it ?

At least it is the same countries getting lowered after their second rehearsal so a little bit more logic

 

[Vektor]

I don't know what's crazy about the odds when they have the three most likely winners in the Top3 (Netherlands, France, Sweden). You need a reality check if think that anyone else can still win this.

 

[Realest]

more likely Winner than ?

 

[Citelis]

Italy is nowhere near the win

 

[Bellw]

Sweden is drifting, France soon to pass Sweden?

 

[Storm]

I just can't see France winning. I still remember last year when Lithuania and Ireland were suddenly climbing like crazy.

For me it's still between The Netherlands, Sweden, Italy and maybe Russia.

 

[Pawhlen]

Sweden is drifting, France soon to pass Sweden?

Only marginal but yes, will probably overtake 2nd place

 

[HayashiM]

I don't know what's crazy about the odds when they have the three most likely winners in the Top3 (Netherlands, France, Sweden). You need a reality check if think that anyone else can still win this.

Actually, according to the usual source, the sum of the winning chances of these three is 48% at the moment. So if you offer to, say, triple my money if someone else wins, I will gladly take such a bet. :-)

 

[midnightsun]

France is just a current hype. It's a great song and a wonderful performance (though a bit too much to me) but once the semis are over it will get lost in the final.

 

[WhoKnows]

I don't know what's crazy about the odds when they have the three most likely winners in the Top3 (Netherlands, France, Sweden). You need a reality check if think that anyone else can still win this.

I can't see either Sweden or, especially, France winning.

I'd say it's between Netherlands, Italy, Russia, Switzerland and Azerbaijan. Idc if most of them aren't in the "top three" in the odds. Most likely, it'll probably just end up being Netherlands after all. Just like last year, despite some underwhelming reaction to Israel's rehearsals, nobody else emerged as a strong enough contender to overtake them. Compare that with 2017, when Italy's underwhelming reaction allowed for Portugal to emerge as the alternative favorite.