ESC 2018 Betting Odds

[Jacketh]

Seems like Estonia will be made favourite by morning!

I'm not sure why people are betting on Bulgaria in expectation just because of Poli and Kristian the last two years. They're taking it serious for sure, but that seems a bit risky to me!

As much as I like Lie To Me, if he is apparently the closest competition to La Forza then it should be a straight forward victory for Estonia this year.

 

[Jacketh]

Yup. La Forza was most recently matched at odds of 1.3 to win Eesti Laul, so essentially any predictions for Estonia at Eurovision are factoring in an inbuilt ~77% chance of La Forza winning Eesti Laul.

I personally put a bet on her winning Eurovision yesterday at 14.5, which I'm rather happy with, as Estonia has now shortened to 10.5 there, so I could trade out for a guaranteed profit if I want (but I won't). There are some other good songs in Eesti Laul – I'm personally rather fond of Stig Rasta's "Home" – but La Forza is the only one of the lot that'd have a chance at winning Eurovision.

Based on the current state of the odds, I'd say Estonia would shorten to around 7 or 8 in the win market if Elina was chosen today – making them the favourite – and would lengthen to at least 100 if another song was chosen.

This was pretty spot on! Currently on 7.8. I expect that to come down a bit, particularly if Bulgaria isn't as strong as people are expecting.

 

[4815162342]

One more update of the betfair market


Last price matched

1. Bulgaria 8.6
2. Estonia 9
3. Czech Republic 11.5
4. Spain 16
5. Australia 17
6. Russia 18.5
7. Sweden 19
8. Finland 23
9. Israel 23
10. The Netherlands 26
11. Belarus 34
12. Croatia 36
13. Austria 40
14. Germany 42
15. Greece 42
16. France 44
17. Italy 44
18. Belgium 50
19. Denmark 50
20. Portugal 60
21. Azerbaijan 75
22. Norway 80
23. Ireland 85
24. Ukraine 85
25. Latvia 100
26. Armenia 120
27. Poland 130
28. United Kingdom 170
29. Lithuania 250
30. Moldova 280
31. Georgia 290
32. FYR Macedonia 300
33. Hungary 310
34. Cyprus 390
35. Albania 410
36. Romania 700
37. Serbia 840
38. Montenegro 900
39. Switzerland 990
40. Iceland 1000
41. Malta 1000
42. San Marino 1000
43. Slovenia 1000


Betting Summary - Volume

1. Bulgaria 83.705€
2. Estonia 61.626€
3. Spain 40.574€
4. Finland 27.499€
5. Germany 21.078€
6. Sweden 19.532€
7. Czech Republic 15.132€
8. Belarus 13.958€
9. Italy 11.207€
10. Denmark 9.187€
11. Azerbaijan 9.132€
12. Russia 8.849€
13. France 6.627€
14. Latvia 6.106€
15. United Kingdom 6.001€
16. Belgium 5.879€
17. Greece 5.705€
18. Ukraine 4.778€
19. The Netherlands 4.073€
20. Armenia 3.703€
21. Portugal 3.511€
22. Australia 3.357€
23. Cyprus 3.037€
24. Israel 2.463€
25. Norway 1.944€
26. Hungary 1.617€
27. Poland 1.597€
28. Romania 1.211€
29. Switzerland 1.180€
30. Croatia 1.143€
31. San Marino 1.116€
32. Austria 847€
33. Iceland 846€
34. Serbia 799€
35. Lithuania 736€
36. Moldova 524€
37. Malta 488€
38. Ireland 384€
39. Slovenia 190€
40. FYR Macedonia 173€
41. Georgia 104€
42. Montenegro 86€
43. Albania 85€

 

[Jacketh]

Someone please explain to me why people are betting on Bulgaria when they've not heard the song

I find it mind boggling

 

[hijirio]

Someone please explain to me why people are betting on Bulgaria when they've not heard the song

I find it mind boggling

I know, right?

Let alone the song, we don't even know the artist yet.

They don't even have a national election, if they had a strong national final I would still understand.

It just doesn't make sense.

 

[Jacketh]

I know, right?

Let alone the song, we don't even know the artist yet.

I've no doubt they're going to spend a lot of production and are putting a lot of effort in. Kristian and Poli were obviously serious attempts to win.

But still, effort and expensive production doesn't mean people should mean they're a favourite!

 

[Vektor]

Someone please explain to me why people are betting on Bulgaria when they've not heard the song

I find it mind boggling

Because this year is extremely weak, and the selected songs aren't winners. Estonia wouldn't be a Top5 contender in most of the years.

 

[mauve]

Because this year is extremely weak, and the selected songs aren't winners. Estonia wouldn't be a Top5 contender in most of the years.

Hm. I can't really say if this year is weak. Depends on the perspective, I guess. Maybe there is no absolute winner this year, but there is a wide range of different styles this year and there are quite more interesting songs that I personally like and love to listen to than last year and even the year before.

 

[Pawhlen]

Someone please explain to me why people are betting on Bulgaria when they've not heard the song

I find it mind boggling

Maybe because their songs in 2016 and 2017 were pretty good, so people might expect something even better this year?

 

[aef]

is totally overrated! It's a borderline qualifier for sure! Juries don't go for those songs anymore these days...

And it's quite the same with ...

 

[GermanBango]

Bless everyone who truly believes that this tragic cringe fest from is going to come anywhere near the Top 15.

 

[Kashone]

I've no doubt they're going to spend a lot of production and are putting a lot of effort in. Kristian and Poli were obviously serious attempts to win.

But still, effort and expensive production doesn't mean people should mean they're a favourite!

You obviously have no idea what you're talking about if you call BNT's last three years efforts an expensive production
Poli's budget was embarrassingly low (i think she was a hard last place on that matter, not to mention she didn't even had a song two weeks before the deadline ), Kristian's was a little bit higher, but only cause he had a label.

 

[Alaska49]

Bless everyone who truly believes that this tragic cringe fest from is going to come anywhere near the Top 15.

idk europe is quite amenable to corny ass duets they never do as badly as the song would do if sung solo

the corniest duet of them all even won this decade

 

[mauve]

Hope so too. A duet can be a fine Thing when done correctly. But Spain does it the wrong way. The song is cringy and just painful to look at. :?

 

[Realest]

The Betting-Odds are so random at the moment and have nothing to do with the Reality.

 

[ZoboCamel]

Techno-chicken is equal second in the odds

Currently very close between the top four though (Bulgaria, Estonia, Czech Republic and now Israel). Bulgaria was most recently matched at 9, while the other three were most recently matched at 10.5.

 

[ZoboCamel]

Gotta say, I'm quite surprised by some of the offers I've had accepted on Betfair this year. It always pays off to put those greedy offers out there... because one in ten times, somebody will actually accept it!

Some of my favourites so far being backing Armenia Q @ 2.5, laying Romania Q @ 1.37, laying Song For Dad @ 1.4 in the Maltese NF, and best of all laying Iceland Q @ 1.8 (and yes, that was after they chose their song ). Plenty of mistakes so far too (RIP my 200/1 bet on Hungary), and I can't guarantee that all of those will land, but yeah, market is being weird this year.

Panic moment of the year so far goes to me putting about $20 on Ermal & Fabrizio in San Remo at 2-ish, only for them to have the "plagiarism" scandal come out the next day and make them look like they're disqualified, shoot up to 20/1, and then ultimately win it anyway

 

[neinnein]

I know the odds don't mean anything at this stage, but I love how quick things can change in Eurovision.

Imagine yourself in 2012 reading that Israel, Bulgaria, Estonia, Australia, Czech Republic and the Netherlands being the Top Six in the betting odds.

 

[nofuxCZ]

The odds probably aren't as accurate at this point but completely discarding them is wrong too - they can give us a general idea of how successful certain countries might be. The exact placings are hard to predict now, without seeing proper live performances/staging, but if you look at what the odds were looking like this time last year, you'll see most of the countries that were placed high in the odds eventually finished in the top 10 - the bookies were wrong about Serbia/Armenia and they missed couple of countries like Moldova and Hungary. France was close to top 10 in the end so not a big miss from the bookies.

 

[NNR]

Israel are first in the betting odds.

LAY LAY LAY LAY