ESC 2018 Betting Odds

[Charly]

risen to number 6 after announcement of jury votes

 

[Romeo]

Asanda is favourite to win Eurovision according to OddsChecker

I do hope nobody replies and thinks I'm being serious.... I do realise that the UK final odds have been mixed with the countries

 

[FilipFromSweden]

I’m considering betting on because our NF looks really promising (more than last year). I think is going to choke just like in 2015. I think other contenders for the win are and maybe if they somehow put on a show

 

[Realest]

other contenders for the win are

Which Song do you mean?

 

[tsegaye]

other contenders for the win are

Which song do you mean?

 

[ESCREGION]

I don't know if anyone metioned it but estonia is 3rd right now.....Is all this about La Forza???

 

[ZoboCamel]

I don't know if anyone metioned it but estonia is 3rd right now.....Is all this about La Forza???

Yup. La Forza was most recently matched at odds of 1.3 to win Eesti Laul, so essentially any predictions for Estonia at Eurovision are factoring in an inbuilt ~77% chance of La Forza winning Eesti Laul.

I personally put a bet on her winning Eurovision yesterday at 14.5, which I'm rather happy with, as Estonia has now shortened to 10.5 there, so I could trade out for a guaranteed profit if I want (but I won't). There are some other good songs in Eesti Laul – I'm personally rather fond of Stig Rasta's "Home" – but La Forza is the only one of the lot that'd have a chance at winning Eurovision.

Based on the current state of the odds, I'd say Estonia would shorten to around 7 or 8 in the win market if Elina was chosen today – making them the favourite – and would lengthen to at least 100 if another song was chosen.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

Which song do you mean?

How To Write A Song

Which Song do you mean?

Oh I don’t know lol. Just feel like Iceland can perhaps ride on Portugal’s wave of finally winning

 

[4815162342]

I just felt like making a ranking on which countries most money has been traded on the betfair exchange market

1. Bulgaria 49.152€
2. Estonia 40.017€
3. Spain 29.245€
4. Finland 10.356€
5. Belarus 9.306€
6. Russia 7.759€
7. Italy 7.662€
8. Sweden 7.612€
9. Denmark 7.498€
10. Czech Republic 5.642€
11. Germany 5.566€
12. France 5.401€
13. United Kingdom 4.958€
14. Latvia 3.896€
15. Azerbaijan 3.424€
16. Greece 3.195€
17. Australia 2.380€
18. Ukraine 2.304€
19. Belgium 1.737€
20. Norway 1.668€
21. Armenia 1.638€
22. Switzerland 905€
23. Poland 899€
24. The Netherlands 892€
25. Lithuania 707€
26. Cyprus 670€
27. Iceland 599€
28. Israel 529€
29. San Marino 485€
30. Romania 467€
31. Hungary 460€
32. Portugal 407€
33. Moldova 368€
34. Malta 357€
35. Serbia 342€
36. Ireland 231€
37. Austria 211€
38. Croatia 170€
39. Slovenia 140€
40. FYR Macedonia 129€
41. Albania 64€
42. Montenegro 61€
43. Georgia 44€

Overall matched: 219.566€

In comparison: Last year, some minutes before the final started, about 3.4million € had been matched (1.5million € only on Italy).

Should I do an update in lets say 2 weeks?

 

[carl1]

I just felt like making a ranking on which countries most money has been traded on the betfair exchange market

1. Bulgaria 49.152€
2. Estonia 40.017€
3. Spain 29.245€
4. Finland 10.356€
5. Belarus 9.306€
6. Russia 7.759€
7. Italy 7.662€
8. Sweden 7.612€
9. Denmark 7.498€
10. Czech Republic 5.642€
11. Germany 5.566€
12. France 5.401€
13. United Kingdom 4.958€
14. Latvia 3.896€
15. Azerbaijan 3.424€
16. Greece 3.195€
17. Australia 2.380€
18. Ukraine 2.304€
19. Belgium 1.737€
20. Norway 1.668€
21. Armenia 1.638€
22. Switzerland 905€
23. Poland 899€
24. The Netherlands 892€
25. Lithuania 707€
26. Cyprus 670€
27. Iceland 599€
28. Israel 529€
29. San Marino 485€
30. Romania 467€
31. Hungary 460€
32. Portugal 407€
33. Moldova 368€
34. Malta 357€
35. Serbia 342€
36. Ireland 231€
37. Austria 211€
38. Croatia 170€
39. Slovenia 140€
40. FYR Macedonia 129€
41. Albania 64€
42. Montenegro 61€
43. Georgia 44€

Overall matched: 219.566€

In comparison: Last year, some minutes before the final started, about 3.4million € had been matched (1.5million € only on Italy).

Should I do an update in lets say 2 weeks?

please do, thanks

 

[MyHeartIsYours]

In the money traded stats, the hot favourites (which have all the attention and people think are gonna win, like Italy last year) and the rank outsiders (which people say oh I'd win 500 quid I'm gonna bet on that) are always over-valued than what they should realistically be at. Like look at San Marino, realistically in a ranked order of most likely to win it is between 38th and 43rd, yet here it gets bumped up to 29th (you can win £100 if it wins).

This usually happens at the expense of countries that are just below the hot favourites.

 

[4815162342]

Current odds on betfair (last matched price)

1. Bulgaria 9
2. Czech Republic 10
3. Spain 13
4. Estonia 14
5. Finland 15.5
6. Sweden 16.5
7. Australia 17.5
8. Russia 19
9. Cyprus 25
10. Belarus 27
11. The Netherlands 30
12. Belgium 38
13. Germany 40
14. Croatia 42
15. France 42
16. Italy 44
17. Israel 46
18. Azerbaijan 55
19. Ireland 55
20. Austria 70
21. Denmark 70
22. Greece 70
23. Portugal 75
24. Poland 85
25. Norway 90
26. Latvia 110
27. Armenia 130
28. Lithuania 140
29. Moldova 150
30. Ukraine 150
31. United Kingom 170
32. Albania 210
33. San Marino 220
34. Georgia 330
35. Romania 370
36. FYR Macedonia 580
37. Hungary 600
38. Slovenia 730
39. Iceland 1000
40. Malta 1000
41. Montenegro 1000
42. Serbia 1000
43. Switzerland 1000


Weirdest odds I have ever seen.

 

[QwaarJet]

They make zero sense right now. The market is panicking due to the lack of a frontrunner.

 

[esc87fan]

They make zero sense right now. The market is panicking due to the lack of a frontrunner.

The odds never make sense to me anyway

 

[ZoboCamel]

Current odds on betfair (last matched price)

1. Bulgaria 9
2. Czech Republic 10
3. Spain 13
4. Estonia 14
5. Finland 15.5
6. Sweden 16.5
7. Australia 17.5
8. Russia 19
9. Cyprus 25
10. Belarus 27
11. The Netherlands 30
12. Belgium 38
13. Germany 40
14. Croatia 42
15. France 42
16. Italy 44
17. Israel 46
18. Azerbaijan 55
19. Ireland 55
20. Austria 70
21. Denmark 70
22. Greece 70
23. Portugal 75
24. Poland 85
25. Norway 90
26. Latvia 110
27. Armenia 130
28. Lithuania 140
29. Moldova 150
30. Ukraine 150
31. United Kingom 170
32. Albania 210
33. San Marino 220
34. Georgia 330
35. Romania 370
36. FYR Macedonia 580
37. Hungary 600
38. Slovenia 730
39. Iceland 1000
40. Malta 1000
41. Montenegro 1000
42. Serbia 1000
43. Switzerland 1000


Weirdest odds I have ever seen.

What does your bolding here indicate?

 

[apasionata]

What does your bolding here indicate?

Already chosen songs.

 

[Alaska49]

sweden falling from first just out of sheer melfest suckiness they are usually a top 5 staple in these early stages. bulgaria basically snatched their wig.

czech rep in second though? not likey. homeboy didn't even sing it live yet (he was lipsyncing in vidbir).

 

[ZoboCamel]

czech rep in second though? not likey. homeboy didn't even sing it live yet (he was lipsyncing in vidbir).

I thought it was a mixture of the two, Melfest-style, with Mikolas doing live vocals but on top of some prerecorded backing vocals?

 

[Alaska49]

I thought it was a mixture of the two, Melfest-style, with Mikolas doing live vocals but on top of some prerecorded backing vocals?

it sounded like it was exactly like some melfest entries in the semifinal in that the prerecorded vocals were kind of the whole thing, but who knows

 

[ZoboCamel]

it sounded like it was exactly like some melfest entries in the semifinal in that the prerecorded vocals were kind of the whole thing, but who knows

I based my guess on a few parts of the video, apart from the vocals just generally sounding different to the studio version. Note at 2:17, for example, that Mikolas stops singing and misses a few words towards the end of the line, and while you can still hear some backing vocals, the volume and effects aren't the same as what we're hearing from Mikolas' main vocal track. For the rap section immediately after that, you can hear what sounds like essentially the same thing overlaying itself with an echo effect - so I assume that's Mikolas, and then a backing track of the main vocal part at the same volume, being marginally out of time with each other. The point here being that there's certainly a backing, but you can still hear the live track, and it doesn't sound actively bad. This sort of thing then repeats throughout the performance.

Plus, there seems to be a very clear divide between the backings - which are just taken straight from the studio track, when they're audible - and the main vocals that I assume are live, which are filled with little breaths and minor bum notes and timing differences from the studio version. If there's no live singing going on here, then they've gone to a lot of effort to try and disguise it, which seems like it'd be excessive and counterproductive in the long run.

I'm not saying that everything's perfect here - perhaps they added the backing track because Mikolas has trouble keeping at the right volume and vocal strength on some lines live - but it does feel like we can hear some live elements here, what we can tell is decent, and the parts using backings can probably be quite easily replicated on the Eurovision stage by getting another vocalist to sing them behind Mikolas live.