Australia - winning?

[Arv]

So... I have this feeling that Australia will win the whole thing. Ever since I heard about them joining this year I've had that feeling. Why? Because:

- A lot of people will vote for Australia just because it's Australia, either because they think it's cool that they're in this year and they see it's a one-time chance to vote for them or because it seems rather stupid that Australia is in the Eurovision....
- They will do good in juries. Why would they put Australia down? They might not put them in their top, but I'm pretty sure they will put them higher than average just because it's them.
- If they win, they will be in it again next year ---> more publicity for Eurovision world wide.
- If they win, EBU can choose where the contest will be next year. They can therefore pretty much decide everything and how they want Eurovision to develop. Since probably hosted in a BIG 5 country, it would also gain a lot of interest back to the contest in that country.

- and finally... their song is actually pretty good!


Am I wrong? Am I right? What do you think?

 

[Dante]

It's their first time participating, and I have a feeling some are going to be reticent. I personally wouldn't mind seeing them winning, especially with their entry this year, but I think it's a bit too much at this point. I think there will be discrepancy in votes. I see them in top 10, maybe even top 5, but not more (it would be really interesting to see it happen,though).

 

[Schlagerman1]

I thought Australia had a chance of winning...till I heard the song. I really can't see Australia winning because of many aspects:

The song is good, but doesn't sound anything like a winner to me. Australia only chance of winning must lie in the juries, and I think of the 7 songs in the final, I am sure that at least Italy and Spain will do better in the juries than Australia. Add a at least 5-10 songs from the semis that will do better as well.

Also not all viewers will love that Australia is in. Sure "we" (that "we" doesn't mean everyone) in the west enjoys it a lot perhaps while in the east (not everyone here either) may not understand at all why they are in. That is why I don't think Australia will win much "cool votes", it means that both sides makes it even in the results.

Also what EBU thinks can be many things in this matter. Of course the contest would get a lot of publicity if Australia wins, but it is also in the borderline to make the contest even more a "joke" for many people if a clearly non-european country wins it. ESC has a really bad reputation in Europe, and I think that EBU are a bit scared if Australia would win it, I don't think it is for the best to be honest.

I would not be surprised if Australia ends around 10th place, it is a decent song, that could stand out in a year that many countries has gone with "serious messages", but I really can't see and I really don't want it to win either.

 

[Arv]

Also what EBU thinks can be many things in this matter. Of course the contest would get a lot of publicity if Australia wins, but it is also in the borderline to make the contest even more a "joke" for many people if a clearly non-european country wins it. ESC has a really bad reputation in Europe, and I think that EBU are a bit scared if Australia would win it, I don't think it is for the best to be honest.

But why let them enter if they're afraid of them winning? And also giving them an opportunity to participate again next year if they do so. I see it as some kind of test, if they win, it's in the interest of EBU of spreading the contest world wide, if they do bad, they will focus on Europe.

 

[SRBIJA]

Nah, but Top 10 is almost certain though

 

[Romeo]

I think they have a good chance. I think it is different to whats been in ESC before and I think it will get a lot of people who thing eurovision is just cheese will vote for Australia because its something good, modern and different.

Plus I think there will be a hype over Australia in eurovision week being their first participation and I think they will be in the media

 

[Nicholas123]

Top 10 for as for now

 

[Sabiondo]

I don't thing that will win at their first try, they for me will finish around 5-8 place in the final or finish Top 3 ala 2011 (When they returned).

 

[FilipFromSweden]

His song is good, but I'm afraid it's not very Eurovision-ish, if you know what I mean? Let's take Cascada for an example, her song sounded modern and kind of american, but that didn't really benefit her and I think the same will happen to Guy Sebastian. Australia will probably finish 4th because they are Australia and everything, but fans and viewers watch Eurovision because they want Eurovision songs. Going too modern is never good in this competition - it has to be a little bit weird or different if you want the win

 

[wyq614]

IMO it may come 4th, 3rd or even 2nd, but will not win.

 

[SwedishFailurez]

I agree with you that Australia will finish around top 10-5 or maybe even winning for just being Australia. Australia is really hyped with the eurofans, the casual audience will give Australia shock votes, Australia has a tasty diaspora, EBU promised that Australia will compete next year again if Australia winning and the song is quite good too. (Top 10 in my ranking-list)

The only thing who can drag this entry down is if the live performance and staging will be poor along with a bad position in the running order. (As we doesn't know how the live performance will be yet.)

 

[Arv]

The only thing who can drag this entry down is if the live performance and staging will be poor along with a bad position in the running order. (As we doesn't know how the live performance will be yet.)

I can't imagine they'll do a terrible staging anyway. if they have "ONE" shot, they will try to make it epic

 

[ZoboCamel]

The only thing who can drag this entry down is if the live performance and staging will be poor along with a bad position in the running order. (As we doesn't know how the live performance will be yet.)

I can't imagine Guy giving a bad live performance. Unless the nerves really get to him, I think he'll be fine, as his vocals are usually near-perfect live. I'm definitely worried about staging though, seeing as it'll be our first time trying to stage a proper Eurovision act, and when we tried with Jessica Mauboy last year the staging was somewhere between 'clunky' and 'tacky'.

Still, I'm hoping for a top 10! My current guess is that we'll end somewhere between 7th and 15th.

 

[VikingTiger]

I still think Australia is one of the contenters for victory. I still give Estonia the best shot. But after Estonia comes Italy, Australia, Slovenia and Sweden. I would be really surprised if another country won this.

I am basing my guesses mainly on the songs. And I am definitely NOT taking into account what would "suit the EBU"; because I really dont think that matters at all when it comes to what song will win.
What does matter though, is the number of "friendly neighbours", diaspora and the song having a "pan-european sound". The last thing being the most important - by far.

 

[VikingTiger]

....and of course - I forgot to mention - the live vocals and the live performance. Including the ability to reach through the screen.

 

[Arv]

Australia is now climbing in the odds after Eurovision in Concert

 

[esc87fan]

Could climb even higher after the London Party and if rehearsals are good

 

[Pawhlen]

will arrange the Contest if wins according to Björkman in our preview programme that was aired tonight on SVT

 

[tuorem]

will arrange the Contest if wins according to Björkman in our preview programme that was aired tonight on SVT

If so => Anke Engelke please

 

[Pawhlen]

If so => Anke Engelke please

I wonder if that was so smart to announce the country who will stage the Contest if wins Before the actual competition?

I didn´t like the participation of Before and I certainly don´t like it now, EBU should have thought threw this much more.

What if many germans around Europe start to vote like crazy for now?

This is nothing but a big slap in the face for the German delegation