Who will qualify?

[Jopi]

Romania in 2017 was #3 in tvt in semi final, so everything is possible.

 

[Iker]

Romania in 2017 was #3 in tvt in semi final, so everything is possible.

Yes. Cheesy but catchy entries with some shtick always stand out, as there is usually not more than 3 per year of those with such package. Other more 'classy' get overlooked (fade in the background having to scramble for votes that are inevitably being atomised) or are forgotten but there is always a lot of people voting for the former unless it's a total trainwreck.

 

[lasse braun]

ok here my selection.

semi 1 (very tough this year)




semi 2 (a little bit weaker)


the first 3 in both semis are my quality choices!
if the jurys pushing the same old hats like every year p.e. schweden,switzerland or austria it could be very tough for ukraine,portugal,latvia and georgia.
i will hope,that the jurys think about some copycats before they finally vote.

 

[Synergise]

I did a quick mock-up of my predicted votes from each jury and televote in semi 1 to work out qualifiers. I went through each country's jury and televotes individually, looking at historical voting patterns, a predicted running order and of course the songs themselves to create the rankings for each. Here's the placements I ended up with, listed in the format (total score - jury score + televote score).

Rank	Country	Combined Score	Country (Jury)	Jury Total	Country (Televote)	Televote Total
1	Malta	302	Malta	161	Lithuania	179
2	Lithuania	282	Romania	138	Malta	141
3	Romania	252	Sweden	124	Romania	114
4	Cyprus	187	Lithuania	103	Cyprus	111
5	Sweden	171	Azerbaijan	91	Russia	98
6	Azerbaijan	164	Cyprus	76	Ukraine	78
7	Russia	161	Russia	63	Azerbaijan	73
8	Ukraine	126	Australia	59	Sweden	47
9	Slovenia	92	Ireland	56	Slovenia	47
10	Ireland	89	Ukraine	48	Croatia	43
11	Australia	86	Slovenia	45	Norway	42
12	Croatia	86	Croatia	32	Ireland	33
13	Belgium	65	Belgium	36	Belgium	29
14	Norway	57	Israel	25	Australia	27
15	N. Macedonia	42	N. Macedonia	19	N.Macedonia	23
16	Israel	42	Norway	15	Israel	17

Under these votes, Australia misses out on the final for the first time because of the televote, but it's very tight between Ireland, Croatia and Australia for that 10th spot. Malta wins the jury with Romania 2nd and Sweden in 3rd, whilst Lithuania wins the televote, Malta comes 2nd and Romania narrowly pips Cyprus for 3rd in the televote.

Should add that this is not my personal taste at all. I'd easily have Israel and Australia qualifying over the likes of Sweden, Slovenia and Romania, but this is what I think MIGHT happen. Will come back to this in May once we know the qualifiers and I'll see just how wrong I was

 

[Iker]

I did a quick mock-up of my predicted votes from each jury and televote in semi 1 to work out qualifiers. I went through each country's jury and televotes individually, looking at historical voting patterns, a predicted running order and of course the songs themselves to create the rankings for each. Here's the placements I ended up with, listed in the format (total score - jury score + televote score).

1. Malta (302 - 161+141)
2. Lithuania (282 - 103+179)
3. Romania (252 - 138+114)
4. Cyprus (187 - 76+111)
5. Sweden (171 - 124+47)
6. Azerbaijan (164 - 91+73)
7. Russia (161 - 63+98)
8. Ukraine (126 - 48+78)
9. Slovenia (92 - 45+47)
10. Ireland (89 - 56+33)
11. Croatia (86 - 43+43)
12. Australia (86 - 59+27)
13. Belgium (65 - 36+29)
14. Norway (57 - 15+42)
15. Israel (42 - 25+17)
16. N.Macedonia (19+23)

Under these votes, Australia misses out on the final for the first time because of the televote, but it's very tight between Ireland, Croatia and Australia for that 10th spot. Malta wins the jury with Romania 2nd and Sweden in 3rd, whilst Lithuania wins the televote, Malta comes 2nd and Romania narrowly pips Cyprus for 3rd in the televote.

Will come back to this in May once we know the qualifiers and I'll see just how wrong I was

No way Romania can finish this high in the semifinal, I don't believe in that.

 

[Leydan]

are in even more trouble than they were before now is out. I'm even more sure Ukraine will fail than I was before.

 

[Preuss]

I was gonna say the same. Not sure how strong these patterns are but safe to assume Russia and Ukraine have lost maybe 15 points each now?

 

[tkris]

Maybe you're right. I have seen more people questioning her live singing abilities so there might be something to it. I didn't know she was les yet, lol.

She's married too .

 

[0scar]

Well things have changed and could be out now, while could be in.

 

[Synergise]

Here are my predictions for Semi 2. Like my predictions for Semi 1, I think it'll be very tight around those qualifying spots between a few countries. Under these votes, all 10 televote qualifiers would make it through, while the Czech Republic and Estonia will both miss out having qualified under a jury-only vote.

Rank	Country	Combined Score	Country (Jury)	Jury Total	Country (Televote)	Televote Total
1	Bulgaria	340	Bulgaria	188	Finland	154
2	Switzerland	293	Switzerland	154	Bulgaria	152
3	Iceland	288	Iceland	139	Iceland	149
4	Finland	224	Greece	85	Switzerland	129
5	San Marino	178	San Marino	71	San Marino	107
6	Greece	148	Finland	70	Latvia	78
7	Latvia	113	Czech Rep.	64	Greece	63
8	Serbia	110	Estonia	58	Moldova	61
9	Albania	98	Albania	56	Serbia	60
10	Moldova	94	Serbia	50	Albania	42
11	Estonia	91	Denmark	42	Estonia	33
12	Czech Rep.	91	Austria	38	Poland	33
13	Denmark	68	Latvia	35	Czech Rep.	27
14	Poland	50	Moldova	33	Denmark	26
15	Portugal	48	Georgia	27	Portugal	25
16	Austria	48	Portugal	23	Georgia	11
17	Georgia	38	Poland	17	Austria	10

 

[Iker]

Here are my predictions for Semi 2. Like my predictions for Semi 1, I think it'll be very tight around those qualifying spots between a few countries. Under these votes, all 10 televote qualifiers would make it through, while the Czech Republic and Estonia will both miss out having qualified under a jury-only vote.

Rank	Country	Combined Score	Country (Jury)	Jury Total	Country (Televote)	Televote Total
1	Bulgaria	340	Bulgaria	188	Finland	154
2	Switzerland	293	Switzerland	154	Bulgaria	152
3	Iceland	288	Iceland	139	Iceland	149
4	Finland	224	Greece	85	Switzerland	129
5	San Marino	178	San Marino	71	San Marino	107
6	Greece	148	Finland	70	Latvia	78
7	Latvia	113	Czech Rep.	64	Greece	63
8	Serbia	110	Estonia	58	Moldova	61
9	Albania	98	Albania	56	Serbia	60
10	Moldova	94	Serbia	50	Albania	42
11	Estonia	91	Denmark	42	Estonia	33
12	Czech Rep.	91	Austria	38	Poland	33
13	Denmark	68	Latvia	35	Czech Rep.	27
14	Poland	50	Moldova	33	Denmark	26
15	Portugal	48	Georgia	27	Portugal	25
16	Austria	48	Portugal	23	Georgia	11
17	Georgia	38	Poland	17	Austria	10

I think Latvia will NQ for 90% and Bulgaria will not win the semifinal either.

 

[BorisBubbles]

No way Romania can finish this high in the semifinal, I don't believe in that.

Belgium being thirteenth in the jury vote lolol.

They'll come like sixth (at the WORST???) in the jury vote. If Geike can sing in tune (and she HAS it, check this live rendition of "Mad About You" from January this year), they'll stand out and do well in it.

I wouldn't underestimate Hooverphonic's televote potential either. A value-seeking invidual (ie: someone who watches ESC For The Music) will be drawn more to them than say... literally anything else in the semi? Like, who else would these indivuduals vote for? Sweden? Russia? Azerbaijan? Don't be ridiculous. Belgium's direct rivals are Romania and Slovenia (specifically those two, I feel), and both of those are not without their own problems (charisma for Ana, and memorability for Roxen)

Remember when people were CONVINCED Sebi were getting at the most 20 televote points in their semi and they finished 6th (in the televote) because the "Obvious Quality" stood out in that trash semifinal? Hoover (and to a certain degree, Roxen and Ana) have the same thing going. At least one of them qualifies, and out of those three, I definitely feel Belgium are the best bet atm.

Of course it being Flanders-Belgium means that they'll fuck up BADLY somehow, even though they're no logical reason for it, and they will bomb badly in both votes and NQ. But confidently writing them off in either vote without having seen the rehearsals makes you a braver man than I.

 

[lavieenrose]

Alright, let's give this a pre-running-order stab.

Semi 1:
Potential semi winners:

Should be okay but anything can happen:

Pretty borderline but I think will get through:

Borderline but I think will miss:

Really going to struggle:

Literally anything can happen:


Semi 2:
Potential semi winners:

Should be okay but anything can happen:

Borderline but I think will get through:

Ready to strike if Senhit’s live doesn’t command a boffo televote score:

Really going to struggle:

Literally anything can happen:


I think I've left off any TRULY crazy shit because I'm saving that for the final when, just telling you now, I'm going to predict for a top 10.