Who will qualify?

[Ana Raquel]

ok let's risk it



The last placement was super tricky. I don't really believe much in qualifying, but unfortunately, I believe even less at qualifying. I really hope to be wrong, but I can't see juries not destroying it.




Another tricky one imo. I believe that at least one of the bawps will flop. I think it's between and but I went on the latter because she is the one I have no idea about her performance skills nowadays (and we know our beloved Serbian trio can deliver).

 

[burrito]

from semi 1

This one is a bloodbath, I can easily see at least 11 countries which I'd consider safe but since there are only 10 spots I can sadly see just missing it, because some audiences might find it too "weird" (for lack of a better word). is messy and would probably be out even before Lithuania, but I can see juries pulling it out of NQ. If makes it, then I see out as the next most unsafe "safe" qualifier, as the song appears a bit unfinished but with good staging is very likely to make it. As for who might take their places, it would be either (but the staging must be 100000/10, otherwise they're not really standing a chance imo) or as a shocking Q thanks to proving popular with older audiences.

from semi 2

Easier semi where I see 7 very likely Qs, probably even 8 (not convinced about but I see it as a safer q than "My Lucky Day" which seemed to be an obvious NQ and they somehow made it 100x better with that staging, so I'm betting on them this time). For some reason I'm not very sure about and (I see Latvia as a case of love it or hate it, and Serbia is - imho - quite forgettable, I cannot recall the way it goes to this day without listening to it, but I'm probably in the minority on that so there's that). I can see the possibility of shocking NQs for (I really, really, really hope not) or possibly (tbh I can' really place my finger on what could possibly go wrong here, maybe them not being able to translate the vibe well on stage? idk, gut feeling, again I hope I'm right placing him in the Qs) with or taking possible free places. For the rest of semi, I can't really see any of them qualifying.

 

[Iker]

ok let's risk it



The last placement was super tricky. I don't really believe much in qualifying, but unfortunately, I believe even less at qualifying. I really hope to be wrong, but I can't see juries not destroying it.




Another tricky one imo. I believe that at least one of the bawps will flop. I think it's between and but I went on the latter because she is the one I have no idea about her performance skills nowadays (and we know our beloved Serbian trio can deliver).

Q, for me it seems bold.

 

[Ana Raquel]

Q, for me it seems bold.

i guess it's the comparisons with hvala ne!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[crashworld]

Who I think will qualify:
Semi 1:
Semi 2:

Who I want to qualify (based on my personal ranking of songs):
Semi 1:
Semi 2:

 

[heke1988]

At this moment:

My wish:

Semi 1:
Semi 2:

My thoughts:

Semi 1:

Semi 2:

 

[tkris]

I use five qualifier tiers:

Locks (QF) are never NQ'ing in any circumstance, potential semi winners (in either or both votes)
Likely Qualifiers (LQ) won't win the semi, but very likely will amass enough points to place in the top 10
Borderline (BL) are all countries in the dangerzone that could swing back and forth depending on their live.
At Risk (RQ) are probably NQ'ing but could snag a spot if multiple countries in BL and LQ fuck up.
Dead on Arrival (NQ) don't stand a chance.

With that being said, here's my tentative divide (assuming Belarus withdraw) before the running order (the order in which the flags rank inside their respective tier doesn't matter)

Semi 1:

QF: , ,
LQ: , , ,
BL: , , , ,
RQ: ,
NQ: ,

Semi 2
QF: , ,
LQ: , , , ,
BL: , , ,
RQ: , ,
NQ: , ,

I'm not nearly arrogant enough to dare predict jury and televote winners.

San Marino is such bizarre case though. If Flo Rida is physically there, San Marino are QF because they're winning the televote. If Flo Rida isn't there, but is well integrated into the stage show, they're LQ, qualifying on the back of an excellent televote score. If Flo Rida isn't there or he's poorly integrated, they'll be RQ, finishing lower top 10 with the audience and below 10th with the jury. So I'll just settle with BL and be done with it.

Disagree with your assessment of Ireland and Norway in semi 1 and Estonia in semi 2 , as in I would shift them atleast two tiers.

With the rest I agree more or less.

 

[lasse braun]

I can sadly see just missing it, because some audiences might find it too "weird" (for lack of a better word)

if this really happens ESC is dead!

 

[VikingTiger]

Semi 1:


Mainly pushed by juries:
Mainly pushed by televoters:


Semi 2:


Mainly pushed by juries:
Mainly pushed by televoters:

 

[MrLordi]

Disagree with your assessment of Ireland and Norway in semi 1 and Estonia in semi 2 , as in I would shift them atleast two tiers.
With the rest I agree more or less.

Norway is a safe q imo, because the 1st semi is full of female entries it will stand out.
When i first heard it i was like: wtf how did keiino not win THUNDER AND GLORIAA
When i heard it for the 5th time i was like, maybe this can do well after all
Now when i have heard it 40 times: NOOOOOOO AMA AMA FAAALLEN AAANGEEEL TRYNA FLY BUT IM NOT ABLE SOOOOOO JUST LET ME GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[Iker]

if this really happens ESC is dead!

I consider it one of the few entries that are qualifying for 99%. I mean Lithuania this year. The song is quite instant and the staging act is amusing & fitting the song. I don't expect some letdown in this matter in Rotterdam.

 

[WhoKnows]

Norway is a safe q imo, because the 1st semi is full of female entries it will stand out.
When i first heard it i was like: wtf how did keiino not win THUNDER AND GLORIAA
When i heard it for the 5th time i was like, maybe this can do well after all
Now when i have heard it 40 times: NOOOOOOO AMA AMA FAAALLEN AAANGEEEL TRYNA FLY BUT IM NOT ABLE SOOOOOO JUST LET ME GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

If Norway pulls back on the staging (get rid of the fur, wings, chains, etc), it could be Poland 2016 all over again. It's a very effective melody that pulls on heart strings. That bit you quoted is similar to Poland's "Ooo tell me black and white..." in that It's anthemic, catchy, accessible emotional and memorable.

 

[tkris]

Norway is a safe q imo, because the 1st semi is full of female entries it will stand out.
When i first heard it i was like: wtf how did keiino not win THUNDER AND GLORIAA
When i heard it for the 5th time i was like, maybe this can do well after all
Now when i have heard it 40 times: NOOOOOOO AMA AMA FAAALLEN AAANGEEEL TRYNA FLY BUT IM NOT ABLE SOOOOOO JUST LET ME GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

It could happen that Norway qualifies. It's not out as per me. Do I see a scenario where Norway doesn't qualify ? Absolutely yes

Do I see a scenario in which it qualifies ? Yes . But I find it unlikely .

It's not going to be in the Jury Top 10 in my opinion. But it can go high on the televote and qualify or it may be average in the televote and not qualify . A safe qualifier in my opinion is one which will definitely be in the Top 7 of both televote and Jury or in the Top 3 of either televote or Jury. I don't see either of those scenarios materializing for Norway.
Ofcourse both of us are just using conjecture and we'll have to accept that we don't think alike . In may we shall know whose thought was closer to the reality.


I've never known Eurovision audience to vote solely based on gender of the performer , so I don't find that reasoning to be strong.The song by itself doesnt stand out much so I don't see it doing a Top 3 in televote . If it does a 4-7th televote position it might qualify at positions 8-10. I liked the Norwegian version of the song , the English version doesn't entice me .

 

[tkris]

Here's what I'm thinking

Semi 1 :
1)Malta : Jury 1-3 , Televote : 1-7 (Safe qualifier )
2)Sweden : Jury 1-3 , Televote : 8-10 (Likely Qualifier )
3)Cyprus : Jury 4-7 , Televote: 1-3 (Safe Qualifier)
4)Romania : Jury 1-3 , Televote: 4-10 (Likely Qualifier)
5)Azerbaijan : Jury 4-7 , Televote 1-7 (Liekly Qualifier )
6)Lithuania : Jury 8-13 , Televote 1-3 (Likely Qualifier)
7)Russia : Jury 11-16, Televote 4-7 (Borderline Qualifier)
8)Ukraine: Jury 11-16 , Televote 4-7 (Borderline qualifier )
9)Australia : Jury 4-7 Televote 11-13 (Borderline qualifier )
10)Belgium : Jury 4-7 Televote 11-16 (Borderline qualifier)
11)Israel : Jury 8-13 Televote 8-13 (Borderline qualifier)
12)Norway : Jury 11-16 Televote 4-13 (Borderline qualifier)
13) Croatia: Jury 8-13 Televote 8-13 (Borderline qualifier )
14) Ireland : Jury 8-13 Televote 8-16 (Borderline qualifier )
15) Slovenia: Jury 4-13 Televote 13-16 (Unlikely qualifier )
16) North Macedonia: Jury 11-16 , Televote 13-16(NQ)


Semi 2 :

1) Switzerland Jury 1-3 , Televote 1-3 (Certain Qualifier)
2) Bulgaria Jury 1-3 , Televote 4-10 (Safe Qualifier)
3)Iceland Jury 4-10 , Televote 4-10 (Likely Qualifier)
4)Greece Jury 1-7 , Televote 1-7 (Safe Qualifier)
5)Finland Jury 1-10 , Televote 1-7 (Likely
Qualifier)
6)Moldova Jury 4-10 Televote 4-7 (Likely Qualifier)
7)San Marino Jury 4-13 Televote 1-10 (Likely Qualifier)
8)Latvia Jury 8-13 Televote 4-13 (Borderline qualifier)
9)Serbia Jury 8-13 Televote 8-13 (Borderline qualifier)
10)Czech Republic Jury 8-13 Televote 4-10 (Borderline qualifier)
11)Albania Jury 4-10 Televote 11-17 (Borderline qualifier)
12)Denmark Jury 8-13 Televote 8-17 (Borderline qualifier)
13)Poland Jury 11-17 Televote 8-13 (Borderline qualifier)
14)Georgia Jury 8-13 Televote 14-17 (Unlikely qualifier)
15) Estonia Jury 11-17 Televote 8-17 (Unlikely qualifier)
16) Austria Jury 8-13 Televote 14-17 (NQ)
17) Portugal Jury 14-17 Televote 14-17 (NQ)

 

[Iker]

It could happen that Norway qualifies. It's not out as per me. Do I see a scenario where Norway doesn't qualify ? Absolutely yes

Do I see a scenario in which it qualifies ? Yes . But I find it unlikely .

It's not going to be in the Jury Top 10 in my opinion. But it can go high on the televote and qualify or it may be average in the televote and not qualify . A safe qualifier in my opinion is one which will definitely be in the Top 7 of both televote and Jury or in the Top 3 of either televote or Jury. I don't see either of those scenarios materializing for Norway.
Ofcourse both of us are just using conjecture and we'll have to accept that we don't think alike . In may we shall know whose thought was closer to the reality.


I've never known Eurovision audience to vote solely based on gender of the performer , so I don't find that reasoning to be strong.The song by itself doesnt stand out much so I don't see it doing a Top 3 in televote . If it does a 4-7th televote position it might qualify at positions 8-10. I liked the Norwegian version of the song , the English version doesn't entice me .

I think Norway will be like 5th in the televote in its semi, as many people will be lured into it (sadly) as this what tends to happen to decently executed cheesy acts with some schtick (Rybak's 2nd entry, Yodel It etc.) So yes it is qualifying for 90% unless the juries completely desert it (like with Montenegro 2013 'Igranka') which I find unlikely.

 

[MrLordi]

I think Norway will be like 5th in the televote in its semi, as many people will be lured into it (sadly) as this what tends to happen to decently executed cheesy acts with some schtick (Rybak's 2nd entry, Yodel It etc.) So yes it is qualifying for 90% unless the juries completely desert it (like with Montenegro 2013 'Igranka') which I find unlikely.

What can i say, those were all good entries

 

[Jopi]

Still don’t know how the juries will react to Norway, it might be even a surprise jury darling. But I don’t think they’ll butcher it.
As of right now, my prediction is that it will be somewhere around 8th-13th place.

 

[tkris]

I think Norway will be like 5th in the televote in its semi, as many people will be lured into it (sadly) as this what tends to happen to decently executed cheesy acts with some schtick (Rybak's 2nd entry, Yodel It etc.) So yes it is qualifying for 90% unless the juries completely desert it (like with Montenegro 2013 'Igranka') which I find unlikely.

A country which is usually top in Both jury and Televote gets <90% chance at qualification , I don't think that's happening lol ! 90% for Norway is a bit far fetched

 

[tkris]

E

Still don’t know how the juries will react to Norway, it might be even a surprise jury darling. But I don’t think they’ll butcher it.
As of right now, my prediction is that it will be somewhere around 8th-13th place.

Exactement ! A

 

[Iker]

A country which is usually top in Both jury and Televote gets <90% chance at qualification , I don't think that's happening lol ! 90% for Norway is a bit far fetched

I mean that I just don't see Norway NQ'ing. Cheesy entries of this sort that are well-sung (and TIX sings very well live) have a very good track record.