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Who will qualify?

Kaz
australia

Kaz

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Another one of the prediction threads ;)

Here's my predictions for who will qualify (may update upon running order/Belarusian confirmation)

Semi 1
RankJuryTelevoteTotal
01:mt::mt::mt:
02:se::lt::lt:
03:sl::ru::se:
04:il::cy::cy:
05:be::az::sl:
06:cy::hr::az:
07:lt::se::hr:
08:ie::ua::ru:
09:ro::no::ro:
10:hr::ro::il:
11:az::sl::ie:
12:mk::au::be:
13:au::ie::ua:
14:ua::mk::no:
15:ru::il::au:
16:no::be::mk:

Semi 2
RankJuryTelevoteTotal
01:ch::fi::bg:
02:bg::bg::is:
03:is::sm::ch:
04:at::md::md:
05:gr::is::gr:
06:al::gr::sm:
07:md::ch::fi:
08:ee::cz::cz:
09:sm::lv::al:
10:cz::rs::ee:
11:dk::ee::at:
12:lv::al::lv:
13:fi::pl::dk:
14:pt::dk::rs:
15:ge::at::pl:
16:rs:pt::pt:
17:pl::ge::ge:
 
germany

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I wanted to make a Thread after the RO including a Poll, but well..

In the right Order:

Semi 1:
:az::mt::lt::se::ru::cy::hr::au::ua::be: /// :no::sl::ro::ie::il::mk::by:

Semi 2:

:ch::is::sm::md::fi::bg::gr::lv::at::al: // :rs::ee::cz::pt::pl::ge::dk:

Jurywinners: :az::ch:
Televote Winners :lt::ch:
 
BorisBubbles
belgium

BorisBubbles

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I use five qualifier tiers:

Locks (QF) are never NQ'ing in any circumstance, potential semi winners (in either or both votes)
Likely Qualifiers (LQ) won't win the semi, but very likely will amass enough points to place in the top 10
Borderline (BL) are all countries in the dangerzone that could swing back and forth depending on their live.
At Risk (RQ) are probably NQ'ing but could snag a spot if multiple countries in BL and LQ fuck up.
Dead on Arrival (NQ) don't stand a chance.

With that being said, here's my tentative divide (assuming Belarus withdraw) before the running order (the order in which the flags rank inside their respective tier doesn't matter)

Semi 1:

QF: :lt:, :mt:, :se:
LQ: :az:, :no:, :ru:, :ua:
BL: :au:, :be:, :cy:, :hr:, :ro:
RQ: :il:, :sl:
NQ: :mk:, :ie:

Semi 2
QF: :bg:, :ch:,
LQ: :ee:, :fi:, :gr:, :is:, :md:
BL: :al:, :cz:, :sm:, :rs:
RQ: :at:, :dk:, :lv:
NQ: :ge:, :pl:, :pt:

I'm not nearly arrogant enough to dare predict jury and televote winners.

San Marino is such bizarre case though. If Flo Rida is physically there, San Marino are QF because they're winning the televote. If Flo Rida isn't there, but is well integrated into the stage show, they're LQ, qualifying on the back of an excellent televote score. If Flo Rida isn't there or he's poorly integrated, they'll be RQ, finishing lower top 10 with the audience and below 10th with the jury. So I'll just settle with BL and be done with it.
 
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Zonne147
portugal

Zonne147

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Semi 1

Safe/Almost safe: :mt: :se: :lt: :cy:
Likely: :ro: :az: :no:
Borderline +: :hr: :ua: :sl:
Borderline -: :ru: :ie: :au: :be:
NQ: :mk: :il:


Semi 2

Safe/Almost safe: :ch: :bg: :fi:
Likely: :is: :gr: :rs: :sm:
Borderline +: :cz: :at: :al:
Borderline -: :ee: :md: :pl: :lv:
NQ: :ge: :pt::dk:
 
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Sabrewulf238
ireland

Sabrewulf238

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In order of how likely I think they are to qualify: (not rank high, just qualify)

Semi One
Q - :se::lt::cy::mt::az::ro::no::be::ua::ie:
NQ - :ru::il::hr::au::sl::mk:

Semi Two
Q - :ch::bg::fi::is::ee::sm::gr::cz::md::at:
NQ - :lv::al::pt::pl::ge::dk:

I feel like with the first semi it's really going to change based on the live rehearsals, I think it's tight enough with the songs that staging and vocals are going to really matter....even more than usual.

I hope I'm wrong with some of these (especially Australia, Latvia, Croatia and Israel) but I'm not feeling their chances as much right now.
 
Mainshow
germany

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Semi 2
Qualifiers: :at: :is: :md: :sm: :al: :bg: :fi: :ch: :gr: :rs:
NQ / out: :cz: :ee: :pl: :dk: :ge: :lv: :pt:

I think that :rs:, :gr:, :al: and maybe even :md: have to struggle and maybe :ee:, :cz: can sneak in; or even :lv: or :pt: depending on their jury support.

Semi 1
Qualifiers: :lt: :ru: :se: :az: :bg: :hr: :cy: :mt: :no: :ua:
NQ / out: :au: :by: :ie: :mk: :sl: :il: :ro:

:hr: will probably struggle and let either :au: or :ie: in.
 
Iker
poland

Iker

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BorisBubbles said:
I use five qualifier tiers:

Locks (QF) are never NQ'ing in any circumstance, potential semi winners (in either or both votes)
Likely Qualifiers (LQ) won't win the semi, but very likely will amass enough points to place in the top 10
Borderline (BL) are all countries in the dangerzone that could swing back and forth depending on their live.
At Risk (RQ) are probably NQ'ing but could snag a spot if multiple countries in BL and LQ fuck up.
Dead on Arrival (NQ) don't stand a chance.

With that being said, here's my tentative divide (assuming Belarus withdraw) before the running order (the order in which the flags rank inside their respective tier doesn't matter)

Semi 1:

QF: :lt:, :mt:, :se:
LQ: :az:, :no:, :ru:, :ua:
BL: :au:, :be:, :cy:, :hr:, :ro:
RQ: :il:, :sl:
NQ: :mk:, :ie:

Semi 2
QF: :bg:, :ch:,
LQ: :ee:, :fi:, :gr:, :is:, :md:
BL: :al:, :cz:, :sm:, :rs:
RQ: :at:, :dk:, :lv:
NQ: :ge:, :pl:, :pt:

I'm not nearly arrogant enough to dare predict jury and televote winners.

San Marino is such bizarre case though. If Flo Rida is physically there, San Marino are QF because they're winning the televote. If Flo Rida isn't there, but is well integrated into the stage show, they're LQ, qualifying on the back of an excellent televote score. If Flo Rida isn't there or he's poorly integrated, they'll be RQ, finishing lower top 10 with the audience and below 10th with the jury. So I'll just settle with BL and be done with it.
Click to expand...
I agree with you when it comes to most of your list save for Ireland. Why do you consider it a sure NQ? If the staging is efficient and she will sing it well than I can see Q for that. The song has been warmly received so far.
 
germany

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Iker said:
I agree with you when it comes to most of your list save for Ireland. Why do you consider it a sure NQ? If the staging is efficient and she will sing it well than I can see Q for that. The song has been warmly received so far.
Click to expand...

Because Televoter only vote for their Favourites, not for their 7th Place/16.
 
Iker
poland

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Realest said:
Because Televoter only vote for their Favourites, not for their 7th Place/16.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but Ireland has qualified with entries that seemed even less likely on paper like in 2018 (the staging has elevated it a lot). 'Maps' is a borderline case to me, 50/50 when it comes to it right now. I would not be surprised if it qualifies, but the other way around would be just as expected.
 
BorisBubbles
belgium

BorisBubbles

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Iker said:
I agree with you when it comes to most of your list save for Ireland. Why do you consider it a sure NQ? If the staging is efficient and she will sing it well than I can see Q for that. The song has been warmly received so far.
Click to expand...

Maybe it's prejudice on my behalf, but I highly doubt Europe will go for an aging lesbian from a bad eurovision country with little on-stage charisma. Not to mention the *extreme* autotune completely distorts her voice and that's usually a bad sign towards live vocals. I like "Maps" a lot, but I'm not going to delude myself with regards to its chances, no matter where it winds up on the running order.
 
Iker
poland

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BorisBubbles said:
Maybe it's prejudice on my behalf, but I highly doubt Europe will go for an aging lesbian from a bad eurovision country with little on-stage charisma. Not to mention the *extreme* autotune completely distorts her voice and that's usually a bad sign towards live vocals. I like "Maps" a lot, but I'm not going to delude myself with regards to its chances, no matter where it winds up on the running order.
Click to expand...
Maybe you're right. I have seen more people questioning her live singing abilities so there might be something to it. I didn't know she was les yet, lol.
 
BorisBubbles
belgium

BorisBubbles

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That she's les doesn't matter, lol. I don't know why I mentioned it. Maybe I just feel uncomfortable with slapping the terms "hag" or "frump" onto someone who is only four years older than I am. o__O
 
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Iker
poland

Iker

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SF1 looks like a bloodbath, plenty of good entries stuck together.

:se: :mt: :lt: :az: :cy: - NID category + :ua:, :sl: (yikes, I sense it's gonna happen and I heavily dislike it), :no:, :hr:, :bg:


surprising NQ: :be:
I will do my SF2 prediction later on:
 
Looren
morocco

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SF1 (clearly the most competitive semi) :

Jury top 10 :

1. :hr: 2. :se: 3. :sl: 4. :ro: 5. :ru: 6. :ie: 7. :ua: 8. :lt: 9. :az: 10. :mk:

Televote top 10 :

1. :hr: 2. :lt: 3. :ua: 4. :ru: 5. :az: 6. :ie: 7. :se: 8. :ro: 9. :cy: 10. :sl:

10 qualifiers (random order) :

:se: :hr: :lt: :ua: :ru: :az: :ro: :sl: :ie: :cy:

SF2 :

Jury top 10 :

1. :ch: 2. :bg: 3. :fi: 4. :at: 5. :ee: 6. :sm: 7. :al: 8. :pt: 9. :gr: 10. :lv:

Televote top 10 :

1. :fi: 2. :ch: 3. :md: 4. :bg: 5. :sm: 6. :ee: 7. :lv: 8. :rs: 9. :at: 10. :al:

10 qualifiers (random order) :

:ch: :fi: :bg: :md: :at: :ee: :sm: :lv: :al: :gr:
 
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