Who will qualify from Semifinal 2?

[goncalovieira]

My prediction after rehearsals :

Jury :

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Televote :

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Qualifiers (random order) :

Switzerland, France, Spain and United Kingdom are voting in our semifinal. No way, Portugal will finish last with the televote.

 

[goncalovieira]

Televote:

1 - Switzerland
2 - Iceland
3 - Bulgaria
4 - Finland
5 - Serbia
6 - Greece
7 - Albania
8 - Portugal
9 - Denmark
10 - Moldova
11 - Czech Republic
12 - Austria
13 - Estonia
14 - San Marino
15 - Poland
16 - Georgia
17 - Latvia

Juri:

1 - Iceland
2 - Bulgaria
3 - Switzerland
4 - Portugal
5 - Greece
6 - Austria
7 - Estonia
8 - Albania
9 - Finland
10 - Czech Republic
11 - San Marino
12 - Serbia
13 - Denmark
14 - Latvia
15 - Moldova
16 - Georgia
17 - Poland

After all:

Certain:


Maybe:


No:

 

[Slabsson79]

Televote:

1 - Switzerland
2 - Iceland
3 - Bulgaria
4 - Finland
5 - Serbia
6 - Greece
7 - Albania
8 - Portugal
9 - Denmark
10 - Moldova
11 - Czech Republic
12 - Austria
13 - Estonia
14 - San Marino
15 - Poland
16 - Georgia
17 - Latvia

Juri:

1 - Iceland
2 - Bulgaria
3 - Switzerland
4 - Portugal
5 - Greece
6 - Austria
7 - Estonia
8 - Albania
9 - Finland
10 - Czech Republic
11 - San Marino
12 - Serbia
13 - Denmark
14 - Latvia
15 - Denmark
16 - Georgia
17 - Poland

After all:

Certain:


Maybe:


No:

Interesting opinion, I have always considered (and still consider) this years Czech entry as a televote-strong entry (akin to 2018) and rather a jury-endangered one - even when everything runs smooth and the performance is spot-on (which the rehearsals were obivously not).

 

[HayashiM]

Interesting opinion, I have always considered (and still consider) this years Czech entry as a televote-strong entry (akin to 2018) and rather a jury-endangered one - even when everything runs smooth and the performance is spot-on (which the rehearsals were obivously not).

Me as well - it could perhaps stem from the image Benny has here at home, more of a powerful stage performer for the youngsters rather than a seasoned collector of awards. But on the other hand, Omaga is one of the fresher and more current tracks of the semi, if everything clicks together, miracles could still happen, even from the juries

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Final prediction for semi two (probably)

01. Iceland
02. Switzerland
03. Bulgaria
04. Greece
05. Finland
06. Albania
07. San Marino
08. Austria
09. Denmark
10. Serbia
----------------------------------------------------
11. Portugal
12. Czech Republic
13. Estonia
14. Moldova
15. Georgia
16. Latvia
17. Poland

I think if it was just the public voting, Moldova would scrape through but I think the juries are going to tank it. Even with the public vote I think they shoot themselves in the foot with the staging, it feels like it won't stand out as much as it could have if they had the ice cream cones.

I want to be wrong on this....but I don't think the public or the jury are going to "get" Latvia's song. I don't think it matters how well Samantha performs the song, I just have the feeling neither the public or the jury are going to respond to it.

I feel like I might be underrating Portugal a little bit....I could possibly see it getting the slot over Serbia.

 

[Jopi]

My crystal ball is saying this as my final prediction:

TELEVOTE

01.
02.
03.
04.
05.
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

JURIES

01.
01.
03.
04.
05.
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Qualifiers:

(how did this happen lol)
* can pull it through

 

[Citelis]

This is the 1st and only prediction for qualifiers i do this year!

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Final prediction for semi two (probably)

01. Iceland
02. Switzerland
03. Bulgaria
04. Greece
05. Finland
06. Albania
07. San Marino
08. Austria
09. Denmark
10. Serbia
----------------------------------------------------
11. Portugal
12. Czech Republic
13. Estonia
14. Moldova
15. Georgia
16. Latvia
17. Poland

I think if it was just the public voting, Moldova would scrape through but I think the juries are going to tank it. Even with the public vote I think they shoot themselves in the foot with the staging, it feels like it won't stand out as much as it could have if they had the ice cream cones.

I want to be wrong on this....but I don't think the public or the jury are going to "get" Latvia's song. I don't think it matters how well Samantha performs the song, I just have the feeling neither the public or the jury are going to respond to it.

I feel like I might be underrating Portugal a little bit....I could possibly see it getting the slot over Serbia.

I got 7 out of the 10 songs I wanted from the first semi final.....so by that logic I'm thinking I'll probably lose more of the songs I want for this semi too. In my original prediction I was only predicting to lose one of the songs I want, which probably isn't realistic...

01. Iceland
02. Switzerland
03. Bulgaria
04. Greece
05. Finland
06. Portugal
07. San Marino
08. Austria
09. Albania
10. Czech Republic
----------------------------------------------------
11. Serbia
12. Estonia
13. Denmark
14. Moldova
15. Georgia
16. Latvia
17. Poland

Hope I'm wrong about Serbia and Denmark. (and Latvia...but I've pretty much accepted Latvia isn't making it at this point)
The songs I want that I'm predicting won't qualify now are Serbia and Denmark.

Edit: Swapped around some countries.

 

[MrLordi]

My prediction after rehearsals :

Jury :

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Televote :

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Qualifiers (random order) :

I think San Marino instead of austria

 

[GermanBango]

Imma go with:

1 (J: 1-2 // T: 1-3)
2 (J: 1-2 // T: 2-6)
3 (J: 2-5 // T: 1-3)
4 (J: 3-6 // T: 6-10)
5 (J: 5-8 // T: 5-10)
6 (J: 7-13 // T: 3-6)
7 (J: 7-10 // T: 5-10)
8 (J: 8-12 // T: 6-10)
9 (J: 9-14 // T: 6-10)
10 (J: 8-15 // T: 7-10)

11
12
13
14
15
16
17

 

[BorisBubbles]

are all locks

looks like a lock but after Croatia died in the other semi.... i'm a bit worried for them.

assuming those 7 are in that leave three more spots. Which will go to three of
At this point i would say San Marino, Portugal, Moldova?

 

[ati0111]

1. Iceland
2. Switzerland
3. Bulgaria
4. Finland
5. Greece
6. San Marino
---------------
7. Portugal
8. Albania
9. Austria
10. Denmark

11. Estonia
12. Serbia
13. Moldova
-------------
14. Czech Republic
15. Latvia
16. Poland
17. Georgia

 

[Zeus]

Saved by juries:

Saved by televote:

 

[Seok-jin]

 

[Himan]

Easy:
Finland*
Iceland*
Switzerland*
Greece*
Bulgaria*

Fanwank??? Probably easy:
San Marino*

Highly probable:
Serbia*
Moldova*

Danger zone and through:
Albania*
Latvia

Just not through:
Czech Republic
Portugal*
Denmark

Not through:
Poland
Estonia
Austria
Georgia

The danger zone is the place where 20 points can make a difference.
Albania: normally always qualifies with this kind of song especially from this position in the running order.
Latvia: is really difficult to name. I put it there because I think they are late in the contest in combination with possible votes from the European feminists plus I also guess the juries won't let it fall that hard.

Problems for the just not through:
Czech Republic: Well, they are just really early, so especially the public will forget about them. They need a lot of points from the jury, who can also vote for Austria, Albania or Portugal(apparently)
Portugal: I hear from people they will do really well. I don't like his voice at all, while this song should be in my zone, since I more often like songs that do good with juries. I have a feeling this song will follow telemóveis, but I have to put it here, because a lot of people don't feel the same way and I'm not blind. Also they have a good position in the order.
Denmark: They normally would be in the not through partition, but oh well, they have such a good draw and I can see they have this happy aura around them which often push songs through in such positions.

Problems for the not through:
Poland: Early, song not good enough last in the odds
Estonia: Early, hot guy, song not good enough, pretty low in the odds. Are we all really going to vote for the hot guy? Please: no.
Austria: Early, okay song, but with this Christian theme, I don't know, the juries might fall for it, but I don't think he will end up higher than 8th with the juries and the televotes will kill it after that.
Georgia: Low in odds, nobody cares.

I would now put Portugal in and Moldova out.

 

[theditz83]

So my safe qualifiers from this semi are:


Borderliners (in order of most to least likely):

Likely out:

 

[ekzuu]

My prediction before the show

Juries:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Televote:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Qualifiers:

11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17.

In places 7-13 6 countries have almost equal chances so it depends on how similar are televote/juryvote...
I kinda hope my prediction is wrong xd

 

[ZoboCamel]

I ended up getting 9/10 correct for SF1; let's see if I can do any better here...

Q:

NQ:

I feel like Estonia/Moldova/Denmark in particular still have a chance of making it, and if any of them do I think we'd lose Albania or Austria... but if I had to take a stab, these are the ten I'd guess at.

 

[Kitakaze]

01 Switzerland 02 Bulgaria 03 Iceland 04 Greece 05 San Marino 06 Finland 07 Serbia 08 Albania 09 Austria 10 Portugal _________________ 11 Moldova 12 Denmark 13 Estonia 14 Czechia 15 Latvia 16 Georgia 17 Poland

Wouldn’t be at all surprised if Moldova qualified over Portugal, Austria or Albania as it seems those are the ones fighting for the final 2-3 spots. Judging from this thread we all seem to expect a similar outcome...

 

[Lance Esgard]

Switzerland, Bulgaria and Greece I think are safe qualifiers strong to both the televoters and the jury. Iceland is a safe qualifier (even if there is some drop due to not being able to perform live) but appeals more to the televote. Finland and San Marino should qualify based more off the televote and Portugal and Albania based more on the jury vote. The remaining two spots are trickier.

I think Latvia won't do well enough with the juries to qualify and is too polarising to get enough of a televote. Poland and Georgia will do poorly with both sides, I think.

But I see the remaining nations in an uncertain zone. Serbia is without the usual televote allies so I think they could be a shock non-qualifier like Croatia was to many.

I think Denmark will make it. I think Estonia, Austria, Serbia and Moldova are all in competition for the last slot... I'll go Estonia. I think the juries could see a lot in it and I think there will be a considerable number of voters who find San Marino to be too chaotic and find Estonia a more comforting and familiar sound that is easy on the eyes.

So: Switzerland, San Marino, Iceland, Bulgaria, Greece, Finland, Albania, Portugal, Denmark and Estonia.

Fully expecting to be off though.