Who will qualify from Semifinal 2?

[4815162342]

Current eurojury standings also for semi 2.. 2,5 points for each top 3 mention and 1 point for all other top 10 mentions:

1. Switzerland 27
2. Iceland 26
3. Bulgaria 11,5
4. Finland 10,5
5. Portugal 9,5
6. Estonia 7,5
7. Austria 5,5
8. Greece 5
9. Latvia 2
9. Czech Republic 2
9. Serbia 2
12. Albania 1
12. Denmark 1
12. Georgia 1
12. San Marino 1
16. Moldova 0
16. Poland 0

According to eurojury there are only two potential jury winners in semi 2: Switzerland and Iceland. While Bulgaria is leading the rest of the field, its way lower than expected.
Overall the juries dont seem to like semi 2. Greece and especially San Marino flopping hard. Only a single jury voting for San Marino after 25 votings.. thats rough. Moldova without any votes.

 

[Zeus]

Top 7 seems realistic to me. Think Finland and maybe Greece will drop some more positions.

 

[Realest]

One Day before the Rehearsals we have the following Results:

01:
02:
03:
04:
05:
06:
07:
08:
09:
10:

11:
12:
13:
14:
15:
16:
17:

 

[mauve]

I am still having the hope that Latvia and Austria will make it to the GF.

 

[GermanBango]

This Semi is a hot mess ... but yeah, my final pre rehearsal prediction:

100% Club (Top 5 with Juries AND Televoters)
(J: 1-2 // T: 1-2)
(J: 1-2 // T: 3-5)
(J: 2-5 // T: 2-5)

Very likely (Top 5 with either Juries OR Televoters)
(J: 5-7 // T: 4-6)
(J: 7-12 // T: 2-5)

Could go either way (These hover around 10th with both)
(J: 5-12 // T: 7-15)
(J: 4-10 // T: 16-17)
(J: 6-12 // T: 6-14)
(J: 7-15 // T: 5-12)
(J: 7-14 // T: 5-10)
(J: 8-15 // T: 6-12)

Unlikely but not completely impossible (These hover around 10th with either Juries OR Televoters)
(J: 6-10 // T: 9-17)
(J: 7-10 // T: 9-15)
(J: 13-17 // T: 7-13)

Gonna take a miracle (Most likely not even close to Top 10 with either Juries OR Televoters)
(J: 9-12 // T: 15-17)
(J: 9-15 // T: 12-17)
(J: 15-17 // T: 9-13)

 

[Iker]

This Semi is a hot mess ... but yeah, my final pre rehearsal prediction:

100% Club (Top 5 with Juries AND Televoters)
(J: 1-2 // T: 1-2)
(J: 1-2 // T: 3-5)
(J: 2-5 // T: 2-5)

Very likely (Top 5 with either Juries OR Televoters)
(J: 5-7 // T: 4-6)
(J: 7-12 // T: 2-5)

Could go either way (These hover around 10th with both)
(J: 5-12 // T: 7-15)
(J: 4-10 // T: 16-17)
(J: 6-12 // T: 6-14)
(J: 7-15 // T: 5-12)
(J: 7-14 // T: 5-10)
(J: 8-15 // T: 6-12)

Unlikely but not completely impossible (These hover around 10th with either Juries OR Televoters)
(J: 6-10 // T: 9-17)
(J: 7-10 // T: 9-15)
(J: 13-17 // T: 7-13)

Gonna take a miracle (Most likely not even close to Top 10 with either Juries OR Televoters)
(J: 9-12 // T: 15-17)
(J: 9-15 // T: 12-17)
(J: 15-17 // T: 9-13)

Why do you find so unlikely to Q? Karma sounds pretty and Anxhela is a great live vocalist. They also have a good stage director for this year apparently and I think she's the best female vocalist in that semi. Also stands a better chance also than you think, definitely better than that I can easily see finishing last in the semifinal, it screams 30 points in the semi (sorry Samanta fans). As for I sadly have to agree.

 

[Jopi]

Albania is a locked Q. lol

 

[GermanBango]

Why do you find so unlikely to Q? Karma sounds pretty and Anxhela is a great live vocalist. They also have a good stage director for this year apparently and I think she's the best female vocalist in that semi. Also stands a better chance also than you think, definitely better than that I can easily see finishing last in the semifinal, it screams 30 points in the semi (sorry Samanta fans). As for I sadly have to agree.

Well overall I find this Semi a lot harder to predict than the first one. Literally anything could happen especially considering the fact that we don’t know anything about the performances yet. One thing that is clear is that most of the Semi 2 songs wouldn’t stand a chance if they were competing in semi 1.

Obvs this ranking is largely based on my gut feeling (and voting patterns ofc) so yeah.

is a snoozefest through and through. Can I see it qualifying? Yup. BUT they will need a stellar staging and knowing what Albania usually comes up with I doubt that this will happen. They might make it to the lower top 10 in the televoting with a little help from their diaspora but then again … countries like Italy and Macedonia aren’t even voting in this Semi.

As for … sorry but no chance. It’s just too beige. will surely find it‘s lovers especially considering that hip hop is largely underrepresented in Eurovision. The jury will destroy it though.

 

[GermanBango]

Albania is a locked Q. lol

Surely not with that song.

 

[Synergise]

I'm locking in my Semi 2 predictions pre-rehearsals, so that I can laugh at how wrong I was on May 20th

Combined Vote	Jury Vote	Televote
Iceland (301)	Switzerland (153)	Iceland (162)
Switzerland (299)	Bulgaria (140)	Bulgaria (158)
Bulgaria (298)	Iceland (139)	Switzerland (146)
Finland (201)	Greece (99)	Finland (141)
Greece (163)	Portugal (95)	Moldova (99)
Portugal (131)	Albania (91)	San Marino (70)
Moldova (124)	Czech Rep. (80)	Greece (64)
San Marino (123)	Finland (60)	Denmark (61)
Albania (120)	Serbia (54)	Serbia (55)
Serbia (109)	San Marino (53)	Latvia (47)
--------------------	--------------------	--------------------
Czech Rep. (94)	Georgia (40)	Portugal (36)
Latvia (82)	Estonia (37)	Poland (32)
Denmark (81)	Latvia (35)	Albania (29)
Estonia (64)	Austria (34)	Estonia (27)
Austria (47)	Moldova (25)	Czech Rep. (14)
Georgia (45)	Denmark (20)	Austria (13)
Poland (37)	Poland (5)	Georgia (5)

 

[Jopi]

SF2

Jury:

1. Switzerland
2. Austria
3. Bulgaria
4. Iceland
5. Finland
6. Albania
7. Greece
8. Czech Republic
9. Portugal
10. San Marino

Televote:

1. Finland
2. Switzerland
3. Iceland
4. San Marino
5. Greece
6. Moldova
7. Albania
8. Serbia
9. Estonia
10. Poland

 

[aardvark]

My final prediction for this rather unpredictable semi:

100% Certain:
1 Switzerland
2 Finland
3 Iceland
4 Greece
5 Bulgaria

Mostly certain:
6 San Marino
7 Czech Republic
8 Moldova
9 Albania

Not certain at all:
10 Denmark
11 Estonia
12 Serbia
13 Austria

Sorry, see ya next year:
14 Portugal
15 Latvia
16 Georgia
17 Poland

 

[Zeus]

I once again agree a lot with you @aardvark. The only one real difference is that for me Portugal is a sure qualifier. It's going to be in the top 5 with the juries at least I think. It breaths music and class, there is a jazzy feel to it and the singer is really mature vocally.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

They're really trying to throw Estonia under the bus, not that I'm mad about that this year.

I'm not convinced the song is strong enough to get past that second performing slot...but I guess that doesn't really affect jury votes. To be honest I still think Estonia will qualify, but it might only be a 9th or 10th placement because of the running order. I think Denmark is boosted by going last too...although I'm not sure if it'll quite be enough.

Although to be honest, I could see Austria taking advantage of Estonia's weak slot....I think both of them will be borderline anyway.

Bulgaria got a really rough deal coming 4th in a line of a slow tempo songs, but I can't see a reality where they still don't qualify....I wouldn't be surprised to see them lower down the scoreboard than expected when the full results come out though.

STRONG
01. Switzerland
02. San Marino
03. Greece
04. Finland

SOLID
05. Iceland
06. Bulgaria

SAFE
07. Czech Republic
08. Moldova

BORDERLINE
09. Albania
10. Denmark
11. Estonia
12. Austria
13. Latvia
14. Serbia

OUT
15. Poland
16. Portugal
17. Georgia

The borderline areas are pretty wide in both semis.

Edit: The more I think about it the more I think Denmark might actually slip through. Performing last in the semi...and they're singing it in Danish AND it stands out from everything else in the semi.

Right now, based on the rehearsals we've seen so far my predictions are mostly the same with a few changes

STRONG
01. Switzerland
02. Greece
03. Finland
04. Iceland
05. San Marino

SOLID
06. Bulgaria

SAFE
07. Czech Republic

BORDERLINE
08. Albania
09. Serbia
10. Denmark
11. Austria
12. Moldova
13. Estonia
14. Latvia

OUT
15. Portugal
16. Georgia
17. Poland

So right now I'm thinking the qualifiers are: Switzerland, Greece, Finland, Iceland, San Marino, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Albania, Serbia and Denmark.

Although in my mind Denmark is only a few points ahead of 11th place, not confident at all about that one but I can still see it slipping through, especially with it performing last and being one of the few songs not sung in English.

I could absolutely see the points difference between 9th and 13th being next to nothing.

Out: Austria, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Portugal, Georgia, Poland.

 

[Ezio]

I don't think Czechia, Greece and Albania are safe at all. I'd consider Serbia much safer.

Denmark is in trouble before the rehearsal even began for them. All these 80s visuals, so their song lost quite a lot of its uniqueness.

 

[goncalovieira]

Just before the rehearsals of SF 2 second part.

Even if this semifinal seems to be so much easier to predict, this are my (not so sure) predictions:

Czech Republic
Greece
Moldova
Iceland
Serbia
Albania
Portugal
Bulgaria
Finland
Switzerland

San Marino is a fanwank. No doubts about that.

 

[Himan]

Easy:
Finland*
Iceland*
Switzerland*
Greece*
Bulgaria*

Fanwank??? Probably easy:
San Marino*

Highly probable:
Serbia*
Moldova*

Danger zone and through:
Albania*
Latvia

Just not through:
Czech Republic
Portugal*
Denmark

Not through:
Poland
Estonia
Austria
Georgia

The danger zone is the place where 20 points can make a difference.
Albania: normally always qualifies with this kind of song especially from this position in the running order.
Latvia: is really difficult to name. I put it there because I think they are late in the contest in combination with possible votes from the European feminists plus I also guess the juries won't let it fall that hard.

Problems for the just not through:
Czech Republic: Well, they are just really early, so especially the public will forget about them. They need a lot of points from the jury, who can also vote for Austria, Albania or Portugal(apparently)
Portugal: I hear from people they will do really well. I don't like his voice at all, while this song should be in my zone, since I more often like songs that do good with juries. I have a feeling this song will follow telemóveis, but I have to put it here, because a lot of people don't feel the same way and I'm not blind. Also they have a good position in the order.
Denmark: They normally would be in the not through partition, but oh well, they have such a good draw and I can see they have this happy aura around them which often push songs through in such positions.

Problems for the not through:
Poland: Early, song not good enough last in the odds
Estonia: Early, hot guy, song not good enough, pretty low in the odds. Are we all really going to vote for the hot guy? Please: no.
Austria: Early, okay song, but with this Christian theme, I don't know, the juries might fall for it, but I don't think he will end up higher than 8th with the juries and the televotes will kill it after that.
Georgia: Low in odds, nobody cares.

 

[kruskica]

I think Iceland might win this semi tbh. Expected Switzerland to do it, but I'm not sure anymore after that staging.
Rafal close second

 

[Ana Raquel]

1st prediction (done here):



2nd prediction (after 1st rehearsal):



why did I put greece out lmao

I know got a great reception regarding its staging, but I can help but imagine a 2019 scenario where he had a killer staging (with good feedback from the press, being top 4 in one of the semi 1 rehearsal day) yet it wasn't enough. Plus, both songs had low support from the fans prior to the staging.

out because that rehearsal was sadly not it. in because the reception has been good and there is a chance of getting that old Christian lady named @Karen vote, which can be enough to scrape through the semi?

is my question mark. putting them out as of now, because the staging is definitely... not it. However, dream team, right? If they fix the staging (properly the worst they have done iirc) and natalia gets some will to live, they can definitely make it through... however, who would be out instead? Some say but I can't see it. Albania? I don't know. It was well received. San Marino?

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Right now, based on the rehearsals we've seen so far my predictions are mostly the same with a few changes

STRONG
01. Switzerland
02. Greece
03. Finland
04. Iceland
05. San Marino

SOLID
06. Bulgaria

SAFE
07. Czech Republic

BORDERLINE
08. Albania
09. Serbia
10. Denmark
11. Austria
12. Moldova
13. Estonia
14. Latvia

OUT
15. Portugal
16. Georgia
17. Poland

So right now I'm thinking the qualifiers are: Switzerland, Greece, Finland, Iceland, San Marino, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Albania, Serbia and Denmark.

Although in my mind Denmark is only a few points ahead of 11th place, not confident at all about that one but I can still see it slipping through, especially with it performing last and being one of the few songs not sung in English.

I could absolutely see the points difference between 9th and 13th being next to nothing.

Out: Austria, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Portugal, Georgia, Poland.

I think I'm starting to have some doubts about Czech Republic because of what I heard about the rehearsal (people were saying he was way off his marks and he missed a lot of moves)....and Portugal seems to have been received well during the rehearsal so I wonder if I'm underestimating it.

New Qualifiers:

Out: Czech Republic, Austria, Moldova, Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, Poland

I'm also starting to think San Marino probably isn't as strong a qualifier as we think....I still expect it to qualify though. They don't feel entirely safe anymore though.

Probably out of my non qualifiers Czech Republic and Austria I feel the least sure about. Czech Republic because I already thought it was going to qualify and Austria because a part of me feels like at least one out of Austria and Estonia would qualify....but I'm leaving them out for now.