Who will qualify from Semifinal 1?

[Citelis]

This is the 1st and only prediction for qualifiers i do this year!

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.

 

[Mainshow]

The inner Eurovision stan inside of me doesn't want to leave in a world in which won't qualify

 

[Citelis]

Of course Azerbaijan qualifies!

 

[Synergise]

Predictions after rehearsals (predicted rank before rehearsals in brackets). I'm expecting it to be incredibly tight between positions 8-13 because I expect each one of these to be a qualifier in one of the votes and a non-qualifier in the other (except Ireland who I think might make it in coming around 9th - 10th in both votes).

1. Malta (1)
2. Cyprus (4)
3. Russia (6)
4. Ukraine (11)
5. Lithuania (2)
6. Belgium (9)
7. Azerbaijan (8)
8. Australia (15)
9. Ireland (10)
10. North Macedonia (14)
---------------------------------------------
11. Israel (7)
12. Norway (13)
13. Sweden (5)
14. Croatia (16 )
15. Romania (3)
16. Slovenia (12)

This list looks really weird, having Australia, Ireland and North Macedonia all qualify, but I really think we're going to have a large disparity between the televote and the jury vote this year, with North Macedonia in particular doing much better with the juries than we might expect, and that this will carry them through.

Likewise, while I thought Sweden was a dead certain qualifier with the juries, in this really impactful line-up, I do think there's a good chance that he can be forgotten, and I don't think he's going to have much luck with the televote. I've always expected Norway and Croatia to be killed by the jury, despite both being qualifiers in the televote.

Tomorrow evening is going to be INSANE.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Predictions after rehearsals (predicted rank before rehearsals in brackets). I'm expecting it to be incredibly tight between positions 8-13 because I expect each one of these to be a qualifier in one of the votes and a non-qualifier in the other (except Ireland who I think might make it in coming around 9th - 10th in both votes).

1. Malta (1)
2. Cyprus (4)
3. Russia (6)
4. Ukraine (11)
5. Lithuania (2)
6. Belgium (9)
7. Azerbaijan (8)
8. Australia (15)
9. Ireland (10)
10. North Macedonia (14)
---------------------------------------------
11. Israel (7)
12. Norway (13)
13. Sweden (5)
14. Croatia (16 )
15. Romania (3)
16. Slovenia (12)

This list looks really weird, having Australia, Ireland and North Macedonia all qualify, but I really think we're going to have a large disparity between the televote and the jury vote this year, with North Macedonia in particular doing much better with the juries than we might expect, and that this will carry them through.

Likewise, while I thought Sweden was a dead certain qualifier with the juries, in this really impactful line-up, I do think there's a good chance that he can be forgotten, and I don't think he's going to have much luck with the televote. I've always expected Norway and Croatia to be killed by the jury, despite both being qualifiers in the televote.

Tomorrow evening is going to be INSANE.

I don't think either Slovenia or North Macedonia will qualify....but if the juries dragged one of them into the final I think it would definitely be Slovenia.

I don't think the juries will respond to North Macedonia that much, especially with how strong this semi is and like I already said if they're going to fall in love with a ballad in this semi it'll be Slovenia.

I agree that the results tomorrow night are probably going to be a trip though. This semi has been so difficult to predict.

 

[Kitakaze]

Rehearsals haven’t changed anything for me. Sticking with my pre-rehearsal picks:

01 Malta 02 Cyprus 03 Lithuania 04 Ukraine 05 Russia 06 Sweden 07 Croatia 08 Norway 09 Belgium 10 Azerbaijan _________________ 11 Romania 12 Israel 13 Australia 14 Ireland 15 North Macedonia 16 Slovenia

 

[theditz83]

Soooo, my final prediction filtered into 3 groups...

Definites:
Borderliners:
Goners:

Out of the borderliners, I'd predict and to the safer bets, with and having the toughest challenge (all performance dependent).

 

[mauve]

I don't predict anymore. Sometimes the predictable becomes unpredictable and the unpredictable predictable. Then the predictions are .... ah, forget it. I will take my pills tonight to calm myself down. Pills? These here:

 

[Zeus]

Safe in general:


Safe because of juryvote:


Safe because of televote:


Safe because good average score:


My biggest doubt: maybe Sweden instead of Israel for a good jury result. I just think Edens vocal performance is more impressive and that the juries will acknowledge it.

 

[Lance Esgard]

Having now been updated on the Jury Show, this is my final prediction for Semi-Final 1, which I shall have to do in a succession of posts for reasons of length.

PART 1 (Safe Qualifiers):

UKRAINE to qualify: Exceptionally strong staging with a song with great production and build-up that many people will love and vote for even as a smaller number of others can't stand the vocal. It isn't as potentially 'harsh' on the ear as in the case of Tulia, where the same technique was combined with harmonising which makes it a lot less accessible. Probable televote winner. Lead singer has great stage presence. Jury may surprise as juries may appreciate the difficulty of the vocal technique. The production may also help the song with the juries.

LITHUANIA to qualify: Probable televote winner with infectious dance moves and an engaging rhythm. Exceptional choreography. Lead singer has great stage presence but the rest of the band and the two guest dancers joining them have lively personalities. Message will resonate with many but is relatively less jury-friendly, but those who account more for visuals, i.e. those with a TV production background, are more likely to rate this more highly.

MALTA to qualify: Probable jury winner with amazing vocals. The song is strong enough to resonate with a large audience, but some of the potential televote is likely to be lost due to staging being perceived as less engaging and memorable.

 

[Lance Esgard]

PART 2 (Qualifiers):

IRELAND to qualify: Exceptional staging and with vocals that are coming together at the right time. Radio-friendly and well-produced in a way that the jury should respect, but if the backing vocals are up high that will limit the jury votes which can be gained. Best Irish entry since Together, at the very least – and Together qualified.

CYPRUS to qualify: A strong overall package that is very radio-friendly, albeit not in every market but will do better with the televote, as the vocals aren't as strong in the chorus. Infectious beat. Very solid appeal to both the televote and the jury. Likely to be particularly stronger with the televote.

CROATIA to qualify: Another strong package for both the televote and the jury. This I find likelier to do better with the jury than Cyprus on account of the varied vocals combined with the slick, polished production and staging. Possible shock jury winner if the juries have more members who come from a production background.

 

[Lance Esgard]

PART 3 (Borderline Qualifiers):

AUSTRALIA to qualify: I feel the juries will come to the rescue for Australia, being less likely to hold a live-on-tape against Australia (if not seeming to be at the arena hurt Benjamin Ingrosso it did not hurt him with the juries who rated him very highly). The vocals seem strong enough in a highly technically demanding song. The Jury may be given instructions clarifying what a live-on-tape is to ensure jurors don't think it is pre-recorded. Strong visuals will attract some televotes and the televoters may perceive their votes are needed this time if it is to qualify. A borderline qualifier.

NORWAY to qualify: A borderline qualifer, I think this is a polarising entry enough will love to give it enough support and it stands out for having a male vocalist and distinctive staging. The underlying music is radio-friendly enough and the vocal delivery is very respectable. Should appeal to the juries. I personally would rather Israel qualify instead of Norway though...

BELGIUM to qualify: Very radio-friendly and distinctive in its production. While not as broadly appealing in the televote those who love it are likely to vote for it as there is no other comparable song. A borderline qualifier as the level of support I think is reliable but possible not enough to be above other entries where there performance is less predictable.

RUSSIA to qualify: A borderline qualifier who may fail to gain enough support with the juries but likely to be buoyed by a strong televote from ex-Soviet nations. Very hard to predict with this one, as Manizha is captivating but the song may be too quirky. Staging will help.

 

[Lance Esgard]

Non-Qualifiers:

SWEDEN: A shock borderline non-qualifier, I think the vocals in this specific semi-final won't be enough to retain enough jury votes and the song is enough of an 'X Factor' style single that it won't get enough of a televote.

AZERBAIJAN: Think it will be crowded out by other songs and may be viewed as repetitive. Think the jury won't see enough in it. Certainly has a path to qualify but I lean more to it being a borderline non-qualifier.

ISRAEL: Vocals will attract jury votes, but I think there isn't enough of a televote here for it to be qualify. A borderline non-qualifier.

NORTH MACEDONIA: The vocals sound richer in a live performance rather than in the studio version and it has a cinematic quality that the jurors will respect. Vocally more captivating than Slovenia. But very little televote appeal as far as I can see and jurors also have several other entries vying for their vote. Yet without seeing the full staging, this could surprise and qualify.

ROMANIA: The vocal performance for the jury show was lacking. If Srbuk couldn't qualify with the similar Walking Out in 2019, I don't see this qualifying this year given the strength of the competition, but may well get enough televotes to be a borderline qualifier.

SLOVENIA: Running order doesn't help and the song I think just doesn't do enough to give the singer a platform to truly showcase her excellent vocals. The song is not televote-friendly.

 

[Brandt]

I am still salty over how unbalanced the two semi finals are. This is going to be rough, but my prediction is as follows

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.

 

[Looren]

I think that people really underestimate the impact that the jury vote will have on Slovenia, you'll be surprised tonight

 

[RainyWoods]

Top 10:


Out:



I secretly wanted to be super bold and put Macedonia as a qualifier too but there's probably not room for Vasil. Every semi of course has to have a couple of surprises (when have we not had them?). I'll stand by Slovenia making it. If both Slovenia and Macedonia miss I think it will be the first semi we've ever had without a power ballad qualifier. Romania will be the other surprise. Ok, the vocals haven't been great... but *cough* Blanche. If the composition is appreciated enough then I don't think Roxen's voice will be too much of a problem.

Australia, Azerbaijan, Belgium and Macedonia I put as non qualifiers but I won't be surprised if any of them switch places with Croatia, Romania or Russia. Israel and Ireland meanwhile I will be surprised to see qualify. Those are the two here I feel have extremely slim chances. Sweden are Sweden so despite the song, I don't think this is their time to flop yet.

 

[lavieenrose]

I think the odds are going to go 10/10. - really really want Slovenia but I just don't think it's to be.

 

[Gitte]

I am really

I think the odds are going to go 10/10. - really really want Slovenia but I just don't think it's to be.

I also think that's likely, the odds seem VERY plausible. I will be sad for Aussie though.

 

[Shadowfuxcs]

So my predictions:
Q:

NQ:

Norway might be the one that qualifies against my prediction, I just thought there are more things in this entry that the juries will dislike and I don't see them having a huge televote boost. However if he takes off his glasses in the end then he will probably qualify. Who that would leave outside of my initial predictions? Maybe but their performance yesterday was good so if someone does not make it, it would probably be . also has a decent chance to qualify because of the juries. Overall I don't think there is a single country that is totally chanceless at this point but I see as safe qualifiers. is my biggest grower in terms of predictions, they are in my opinion the weakest female bop of the semi but they seem to have overtaken and with the staging.

 

[HayashiM]

My prediction:
Q:
NQ:

The competition with the juries is actually quite fierce. , , , , and - they can't all score big there.