Who will qualify from Semifinal 1 2025?

[Realest]

 

[GRE]

This is my prediction atm for the 1st Semifinal =>

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[SpiritofKeiino]

Safe:
Probably Safe:
Borderline:
Out:

Of the Borderlines i think Belgium will be the one that makes it. I can see an audience for a weepy ballad but Slovenia has a bad running order and I don't know if Klemen is going to appeal to the casuals. Croatia NF performance was poor and amateurish and unless the staging gets a serious upgrade I don't think it's a qualifier although it will get high points from Slovenia and vice versa.

I would have put Cyprus as a borderline only for it got the final running order slot, which feels like something decent and memorable might be planned for staging.

Iceland is going to suffer a Busker/LPS style fate. Azerbaijan isn't appealing enough and they have struggled recently. Portugal could create a mellow moment but I don't think the meaning or emotion of the song will transcend and ultimately will NQ.

 

[goncalovieira]

Sure Q: Ukraine, Sweden, Estonia, Albania, Netherlands

Likely Q: Poland, Cyprus

Borderline: San Marino, Portugal, Norway, Belgium, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Slovenia

No chance: Croatia

This semifinal will bring surprises and most of the fans are not ready for it. It is almost impossible to see a semifinal qualifier list without a slow song, so Slovenia and Portugal are not out of run at all. Especially, Portugal. They are changing everything about the staging concept and diaspora in Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain and ROW will be more organized than previous years. About the rest, I can not see Belgium, Norway and Cyprus doing it at same time. From my perspective, Norway has the weakest song by miles, but Belgium does not bring A game package to the board.

 

[deletingpoint]

i would argue that even Croatia has a chance, if the performance is good. either Slovenia or Portugal will def make it, possibly even both.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

This semifinal will bring surprises and most of the fans are not ready for it. It is almost impossible to see a semifinal qualifier list without a slow song

Yes, the countries being suggested as NQs in most discourse I've seen are Croatia, Azerbaijan, Portugal, Slovenia, Iceland. But life is rarely that simple. I think you are right there will be a shock here. Could Klemen be the slow song that connects with viewers, more than NAPA?

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

i would argue that even Croatia has a chance, if the performance is good. either Slovenia or Portugal will def make it, possibly even both.

I think Croatia has a chance if the performance is improved considerably. They need to tap into the darker elements of the song. Go full goth.

 

[goncalovieira]

Yes, the countries being suggested as NQs in most discourse I've seen are Croatia, Azerbaijan, Portugal, Slovenia, Iceland. But life is rarely that simple. I think you are right there will be a shock here. Could Klemen be the slow song that connects with viewers, more than NAPA?

Sure. I would not be surprised with that scnenario, too.

 

[joao]

/ / (1 or 2 of them)
OR

/ (It really depends on performance but find it hard. One might squeeze if only 1 song from the Norway / Belgium / The Netherlands qualifies)


I think that:

Sure Q:


And then that's when I get confused.


Probably Safe Q:

- I see the appeal but she has male dancers wearing heals. And before people say that I'm being homophobic: I'm gay!

I just think that when a performance get's a little bit "sexual" or out of what society considers "the norm" then some performances or songs can get hurt (Albania 2022, San Marino 2022, UK 2024, Spain 2024)

BUT ANYONE REGARDING OF IT'S GENDER/SEXUAL ORIENTATION SHOULD WEAR WHATEVER THEY WANT. I'm just giving a technical analysis considering past editions.

- It's the only ballad so it's probably going through.

Borderline:

/ / - I can't see a world where the three of them are going through and I have a sense Netherlands might flop big time.

/ - One might squeeze.

- It might be big in the community but I just find the song and the performance dull. It can flop big time.

- Might squeeze


Out:

Curious for the rehearsal week. It might change big time. A very curious semi-final, I think most of the countries are borderline (some with more chances others with much less).

 

[deletingpoint]

- I see the appeal but she has male dancers wearing heals. And before people say that I'm being homophobic: I'm gay!

I just think that when a performance get's a little bit "sexual" or out of what society considers "the norm" then some performances or songs can get hurt (Albania 2022, San Marino 2022, UK 2024, Spain 2024)

BUT ANYONE REGARDING OF IT'S GENDER/SEXUAL ORIENTATION SHOULD WEAR WHATEVER THEY WANT. I'm just giving a technical analysis considering past editions.

I honestly didn't even notice Poland's dancers wearing heels. Why should i look at their feet when i can keep my eyes on the crazy Justyna? Poland is a loud mess (affectionate) and it could be safely in or borderline out, but i really don't think the reason will be heels. It's the whole package that will either work or not. I also don't think it looks sexualized at all, dated perhaps, but not sexualized. Especially compared to the stagings you listed, that clearly were very very very sexual.