Who will qualify from Semifinal 1 2025?

[Realest]

 

[GRE]

This is my prediction atm for the 1st Semifinal =>

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
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11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

Safe:
Probably Safe:
Borderline:
Out:

Of the Borderlines i think Belgium will be the one that makes it. I can see an audience for a weepy ballad but Slovenia has a bad running order and I don't know if Klemen is going to appeal to the casuals. Croatia NF performance was poor and amateurish and unless the staging gets a serious upgrade I don't think it's a qualifier although it will get high points from Slovenia and vice versa.

I would have put Cyprus as a borderline only for it got the final running order slot, which feels like something decent and memorable might be planned for staging.

Iceland is going to suffer a Busker/LPS style fate. Azerbaijan isn't appealing enough and they have struggled recently. Portugal could create a mellow moment but I don't think the meaning or emotion of the song will transcend and ultimately will NQ.

 

[goncalovieira]

Sure Q: Ukraine, Sweden, Estonia, Albania, Netherlands

Likely Q: Poland, Cyprus

Borderline: San Marino, Portugal, Norway, Belgium, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Slovenia

No chance: Croatia

This semifinal will bring surprises and most of the fans are not ready for it. It is almost impossible to see a semifinal qualifier list without a slow song, so Slovenia and Portugal are not out of run at all. Especially, Portugal. They are changing everything about the staging concept and diaspora in Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain and ROW will be more organized than previous years. About the rest, I can not see Belgium, Norway and Cyprus doing it at same time. From my perspective, Norway has the weakest song by miles, but Belgium does not bring A game package to the board.

 

[deletingpoint]

i would argue that even Croatia has a chance, if the performance is good. either Slovenia or Portugal will def make it, possibly even both.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

This semifinal will bring surprises and most of the fans are not ready for it. It is almost impossible to see a semifinal qualifier list without a slow song

Yes, the countries being suggested as NQs in most discourse I've seen are Croatia, Azerbaijan, Portugal, Slovenia, Iceland. But life is rarely that simple. I think you are right there will be a shock here. Could Klemen be the slow song that connects with viewers, more than NAPA?

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

i would argue that even Croatia has a chance, if the performance is good. either Slovenia or Portugal will def make it, possibly even both.

I think Croatia has a chance if the performance is improved considerably. They need to tap into the darker elements of the song. Go full goth.

 

[goncalovieira]

Yes, the countries being suggested as NQs in most discourse I've seen are Croatia, Azerbaijan, Portugal, Slovenia, Iceland. But life is rarely that simple. I think you are right there will be a shock here. Could Klemen be the slow song that connects with viewers, more than NAPA?

Sure. I would not be surprised with that scnenario, too.

 

[joao]

/ / (1 or 2 of them)
OR

/ (It really depends on performance but find it hard. One might squeeze if only 1 song from the Norway / Belgium / The Netherlands qualifies)


I think that:

Sure Q:


And then that's when I get confused.


Probably Safe Q:

- I see the appeal but she has male dancers wearing heals. And before people say that I'm being homophobic: I'm gay!

I just think that when a performance get's a little bit "sexual" or out of what society considers "the norm" then some performances or songs can get hurt (Albania 2022, San Marino 2022, UK 2024, Spain 2024)

BUT ANYONE REGARDING OF IT'S GENDER/SEXUAL ORIENTATION SHOULD WEAR WHATEVER THEY WANT. I'm just giving a technical analysis considering past editions.

- It's the only ballad so it's probably going through.

Borderline:

/ / - I can't see a world where the three of them are going through and I have a sense Netherlands might flop big time.

/ - One might squeeze.

- It might be big in the community but I just find the song and the performance dull. It can flop big time.

- Might squeeze


Out:

Curious for the rehearsal week. It might change big time. A very curious semi-final, I think most of the countries are borderline (some with more chances others with much less).

 

[deletingpoint]

- I see the appeal but she has male dancers wearing heals. And before people say that I'm being homophobic: I'm gay!

I just think that when a performance get's a little bit "sexual" or out of what society considers "the norm" then some performances or songs can get hurt (Albania 2022, San Marino 2022, UK 2024, Spain 2024)

BUT ANYONE REGARDING OF IT'S GENDER/SEXUAL ORIENTATION SHOULD WEAR WHATEVER THEY WANT. I'm just giving a technical analysis considering past editions.

I honestly didn't even notice Poland's dancers wearing heels. Why should i look at their feet when i can keep my eyes on the crazy Justyna? Poland is a loud mess (affectionate) and it could be safely in or borderline out, but i really don't think the reason will be heels. It's the whole package that will either work or not. I also don't think it looks sexualized at all, dated perhaps, but not sexualized. Especially compared to the stagings you listed, that clearly were very very very sexual.

 

[macmillanandwife]

Duh:
Likely:
Maybe: (depends on his performance & how vindictive the eurotwinks are) (depend on performance & staging)
Borderline:
No:

 

[Realest]

BOs.

1	Sweden KAJ - Bara bada bastu	93%	1.01
2		Netherlands Claude - C'est La Vie	92%	1.01	1.08
3		Estonia Tommy Cash - Espresso macchiato	91%	1.03	1.06
4		Ukraine Ziferblat - Bird of Pray	89%	1.05	1.07
5		Albania Shkodra Elektronike - Zjerm	85%	1.1	1.06
6		Norway Kyle Alessandro - Lighter	81%	1.15	1.17
7		Belgium Red Sebastian - Strobe Lights	79%	1.15	1.54
8		Poland Justyna Steczkowska - Gaja	78%	1.2	1.24
9		Cyprus Theo Evan - Shh	77%	1.2	1.31
10		San Marino Gabry Ponte - Tutta l'Italia	69%	1.34	1.56
11		Azerbaijan Mamagama - Run With U	50%	1.84	2.02
12		Slovenia Klemen - How Much Time Do We Have Left	42%	2.25	2.3
13		Croatia Marko Bošnjak - Poison Cake	26%	3.5	4.5
14		Portugal Napa - Deslocado	24%	4	3.1
15		Iceland Væb - Róa	24%	4	3.2

 

[lavieenrose]

This semi is SO noncompetitive, my god.

WINNING THE SEMI DON'T OVERTHINK IT

ULTRASAFE, I GUESS IT COULD WIN THE SEMI IF IT REALLY HITS ON THE NIGHT

SAFE

GOD DAMN IT FINE I WILL BELIEVE

YOU WILL NOT BULLY ME INTO THINKING THESE GUYS WILL NQ MUCH AS I WISH THEY WOULD

PROBABLY SAVED BY THE RUNNING ORDER BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BECAUSE LISTEN TO THE DAMN THING

FEEL LIKE THEY SHOULD BE BORDERLINE - BUT THEY'RE IN THIS OF ALL SEMIS SO BORDERLINE +

RUNNING ORDER HAS MADE IT A CLOSE FIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO OF ALL SONGS, ONE TAKES LAST SPOT

ALSO BORDERLINE -

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE

 

[RainyWoods]

One of these will win the semi:


Safe:


Chance to go wrong but should be safe:


Borderline in:



11. 12. 13. 14. 15.


Gosh, this semi is hard to predict for. There aren't ten songs that feel like qualifiers. In the end I picked Poison Cake for the final and shock qualifier from this heat. It performs late and Eurovision magic will at least go some way in disguising the vocals. Also, this will sound silly but maybe some of the momentum from last year will help carry Croatia through again (if that's even a thing?) San Marino and Belgium are my two shock flops. San Marino missing is just sensical when looking at how such entries have performed in the past, and knowing also how flat that NF performance was (granted they're changing it but I'm going to need to see it before I shift my view.) Belgium I just feel will be the bubble song of the year. It's loud with not much melody to latch onto. The polarising vocals are its saving grace but I just see the entry struggling without a jury there to lap them up. I envision the general public being cold on it and not digging the package.

I would have put Poland in safe but that death slot... gosh. She should still be ok as this semi entry wise needs a prayer but there's now naturally somewhat of a worry.

 

[Jupiter]

In the end I picked Poison Cake for the final and shock qualifier from this heat. It performs late and Eurovision magic will at least go some way in disguising the vocals.

....what? I get that some times this excuse is overused, but Marko was sick enough during Dora to spend most of his time before and after in the ER, and he had lost his voice completely the days before. He's a very good singer usually, the vocals are the last thing I'd be worried for with Poison Cake. They better not disguise those lol
It'll depend more on staging magic IMO. The song has many "weird" Cuts, and they need to sell those. If they do, I think Poison Cake will do better than many think.

 

[SirPeterGriffin]

01. - Predictable winner
02. - Unique and mystical ethnofolk song that stands out
03. - Gimmick entry and people can fall easily on gimmicks
04. - An unconventional song but it's Ukraine who is immune to RO
05. - Good performer, instant melody with the billingual lyrics to make it distinctive
06. - Typical boybop that always find its public
07. - Death slot is the only question mark. The campiness overload gives it some edge.
08. - I was far more confident without this RO. It feels stage-ready though
09. - Finishing last was everything they've could hoped
10. - This has been crossing my mind for some time. Dons 2.0?

11. - DJ-fronted songs usually don't translate well but the tune is there
12. - It's gonna fade into background with other hyperactive songs
13. - Messy and too try hard
14. - Either we sell the message in a very ressonant way or we're doomed. Needs to cativate beyond our diaspora
15. - No allies, no x factor, just a safe pop song


Much harder to predict than i originally thought. From #7 below a lot can change depending on rehearsals.