I thought this was an interesting read
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In the last 17 years, 12 of the 17 winners sang in slots 14 – 24, (71%:29%.) In the last 10 years 9 winners sang in slots 17 – 24. So the stats show that singing later helps perhaps, but not necessarily determining the winner of course. The other 5 winners sang in slots 4, 7, 8, 10 and 11, so it is possible to win from an early slot, but we know that..................right?
Obviously just because you sing in slots 17 – 24 does not mean you will win!! So the real question is………………has the EBU been deliberately placing favourites in the prime spots before 2013 or is it just coincidence? Very fishy indeed.
As to this year's running order, Italy singing 27th and last could be a repeat of UK’s Molly all over again? Singing last is not considered a "good" singing position in the ESC. Russia sing 25th which is not much better only two songs before Italy, with Azerbaijan before them?
France, Estonia and Slovenia get stinkers and that may kill any chance of winning for Estonia and Slovenia.
Norway, Sweden and Australia get handed decent draws based on first half draw. Conchita won singing in slot 11 and Sweden get slot 10!!!! Fishy fishy. It's unthinkable that Sweden would get a slot between 1st and 7th let alone opening or 2nd. 2nd went to Big 5 member France. Why bother making a bigger contribution financially? UK gets 5th, Germany gets 17th and Italy gets last!!!! At least Spain got 21st.
In fact all the "favourites" have more or less got poor draws? It's as though they are now trying to AVOID putting favourites in slots 17 to 24!!!!! All very strange indeed. Perhaps they have been rumbled.
So perhaps slight advantage to Russia over Italy, but will Western Europe vote for Russia? Very hard to predict at this stage.
It would not surprise me if the winner came from the first half now!!
Anyway, one thing is for certain, it's blown it wide open this year, it's still very hard to call............................and that's not a bad thing