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Semi-final predictions : Who will qualify?

aletem

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Belgium can still qualify. They sing 15th and it is the last English pop/dance song. I wouldn't rule them out! Belgium ended 11th in 2011 with that song, this time they should be around the same place. The points are pretty tight and I suppose you can exchange either Austria or Estonia with Ireland. There are bunch of countries who commonly vote for Serbia (plus there is no Bosnia this year). Yeah, I suppose they can be lower, but they would still be a guaranteed qualifier.

Ok, but there is jury voting and Azerbaijan usually does well there. You cvan switch it with Israel. It won't make a big difference. Plus the Norwegian song is not something the south and south-east countries would wank on!! Ok, maybe Romania would get less. :D
 

ParadiseES

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^
But the Belgian song in 2011 was something completely different to the rest + they had great vocals. You just have to watch Roberto's performance (or even the studio version) and compare :lol:
 

Celia

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Semifinal 1

:dk:
:ua:
:ru:
:nl:
:at:
:rs:
:ie:
:sl:
:md:
And hopefully :me: I think they have a chance

Semifinal 2

:no:
:ge:
:az:
:gr:
:bg:
:fi:
:il:
:is:
:mt:
I'd say the last spot is :sm: or :ch:
 

aletem

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^
But the Belgian song in 2011 was something completely different to the rest + they had great vocals. You just have to watch Roberto's performance (or even the studio version) and compare :lol:
The Belgian song of 2011 was one of the most hated ones. True, it was different. Roberto isn't that bad. I heard the latest studio version and it is not bad compared to the version they first aired. :lol: Anyway, Belgium sings 15th. Plus he is singing after Ireland (not a good singer either) and after a ballad. It's a catchy tune!! :lol:
 

aletem

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Some intake of mine in semi#1: :lol:

Austria is a type of ballad that juries would love and it seems like a neat song. Estonia follows after it. There isn't much of a love from the fans for that song, but Estonia does well with ballads! ;) Then it comes the first uptempo entry (just like Malta last year in semi#2), which is Slovenia. This could much better than "Verjamem" did. It's in English + she is a good vocalist. Two pluses for more points outside of their friend zone. Then it is Croatia. A song with great vocals and it is the most Eastern song. There are plenty of Eastern countries and Croatia could do a 2008 in the semi. xthink Following them is Denmark. Denmark is pretty praised by the fans. It's a good song and it is a favourite according to the bets! I just don't really see it as a winner, just like most of the favourites so far!! :lol: I also think that there will be more convincing performances in that semi than the Danish one. I wouldn't mind seeing Denmark as an overall winner, coz I like the song. ;)Then there is Russia. Definitely not getting the same televoting result as last year, but fans like this year's entry more than last years. :lol: And they are a guaranteed qualifier. :lol: Ukraine is after. Vocally she will probably stood out and performance-vise. It should qualify with no problem, and I think it could win. Will it? Not sure if something Disney-ish can really pull iit - possibly! xthink Then it is Netherlands. An entry that is also thought to do well! How well it will do, I have no idea. Montenegro comes as a great contrast to Netherlands. Fans like it! :lol: Following it is Lithuania. They qualified twice when people didn't expected them to (2011 and 2012..In 2011 they were at the bottom of the OGAE voting, but won the jury vote ahead of the winner :lol:). They have some loyal voters here and they can do it. Plus, it seems that fans like it more than previous Lithuanian entries. Belarus comes after Lithuania. This song is like qualifying formula for ESC. I see comments on YT like: "this is what ESC is all about" or "too catchy, I like it". She has a good voice too, so wouldn't really ditch it as a qualifier. Some will say it - "it's bad, seen it many times", but you shouldn't rule it out. In fact, it kinda does feel like a qualifier. :shrug: After them - Moldova! They qualified with so many unpopular songs (2011 and 2012). :lol: And they did pretty good in the final as well, whether deserved or not! :lol: They have the Soviet countries to vote for them + Italy and maybe even Cyprus. If it is a good performance, the juries could like it. This year they are popular in the rankings, so they are one of the favourites that should qualify according to the polls. Ireland is right after it. Sounds modern - yes. He sings 13th, kinda later on, which is a good spot for a pop song to do well. I think because there are other favourites in this semi, this may suffer, but I wouldn't rule it out. Jedward did it twice, he could too! :lol: Cyprus and Belgium sing 14th and 15th. Two outsiders according to polls and bets, yet have awesome draws! Despina brings class and experience on stage with a nice ballad. It is the last ballad of the semi#1, which could be a plus! On the other hand, Roberto is young, but enthusiastic and his song is a fine contrast to Cyprus. It is the last song/pop-dance song to be performed on English, but not the last song of the night. That can work in his favour!! Serbia sings last and they seem like certain qualifiers. It is a catchy song, sang by 3 girls, which have ok to pretty good vocals.

So yeah, confusing and anyone can really qualify!!! :lol:
 
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I'm really worried about Romania. but they really have an edge since they performs last in the 2nd Semi, which IMO is the weaker of them. People will see great songs mixed with really mediocre or poor songs...

...and then comes Cezar. Really.The instant "wtf"-effect. People will vote for him because he's different and because he's last up in the setlist. The Jury might strip him off points (he will NOT impress the Jury like people here says). He MUST be in the final. There must be some mediocre songs that he could defeat in the 2nd Semi, even though it will be tough.

I also Pray for Hungary, Ukraine, Denmark and Greece since they stood out enough. Havent heard Norway's, but will be much welcome, as will San Marino.
 

SRBIJA

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Here. I made two scorewiz tables. I considered neighbour/diaspora/common voting/friendly voting/common jury voting/wtf jusy voting/+random Georgia voting. :lol: Now don't get offended:
Semi#1
Eurovision semi#1 - Detailed voting grid
I don't think the results look realistic here. I think the top4 could be top4, maybe Ukraine a bit higher. As for the others, well it's an open game. I tried! :lol:

Semi#2
Eurovision Semi#2 - Detailed voting grid
This looks a lot more realistic to me. I suppose you can put San Marino/Switzerland ahead of one Balkan country Bulgaria/Macedonia/Albania. Despite the draw, I don't think Romania will go through. Georgia sang 12th last year and ended almost last.

Looks good, but are you sure of that Germany wont give a single point to Switzerland for example xshrug
 

QwaarJet

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Some intake of mine in semi#1: :lol:

Austria is a type of ballad that juries would love and it seems like a neat song. Estonia follows after it. There isn't much of a love from the fans for that song, but Estonia does well with ballads! ;) Then it comes the first uptempo entry (just like Malta last year in semi#2), which is Slovenia. This could much better than "Verjamem" did. It's in English + she is a good vocalist. Two pluses for more points outside of their friend zone. Then it is Croatia. A song with great vocals and it is the most Eastern song. There are plenty of Eastern countries and Croatia could do a 2008 in the semi. xthink Following them is Denmark. Denmark is pretty praised by the fans. It's a good song and it is a favourite according to the bets! I just don't really see it as a winner, just like most of the favourites so far!! :lol: I also think that there will be more convincing performances in that semi than the Danish one. I wouldn't mind seeing Denmark as an overall winner, coz I like the song. ;)Then there is Russia. Definitely not getting the same televoting result as last year, but fans like this year's entry more than last years. :lol: And they are a guaranteed qualifier. :lol: Ukraine is after. Vocally she will probably stood out and performance-vise. It should qualify with no problem, and I think it could win. Will it? Not sure if something Disney-ish can really pull iit - possibly! xthink Then it is Netherlands. An entry that is also thought to do well! How well it will do, I have no idea. Montenegro comes as a great contrast to Netherlands. Fans like it! :lol: Following it is Lithuania. They qualified twice when people didn't expected them to (2011 and 2012..In 2011 they were at the bottom of the OGAE voting, but won the jury vote ahead of the winner :lol:). They have some loyal voters here and they can do it. Plus, it seems that fans like it more than previous Lithuanian entries. Belarus comes after Lithuania. This song is like qualifying formula for ESC. I see comments on YT like: "this is what ESC is all about" or "too catchy, I like it". She has a good voice too, so wouldn't really ditch it as a qualifier. Some will say it - "it's bad, seen it many times", but you shouldn't rule it out. In fact, it kinda does feel like a qualifier. :shrug: After them - Moldova! They qualified with so many unpopular songs (2011 and 2012). :lol: And they did pretty good in the final as well, whether deserved or not! :lol: They have the Soviet countries to vote for them + Italy and maybe even Cyprus. If it is a good performance, the juries could like it. This year they are popular in the rankings, so they are one of the favourites that should qualify according to the polls. Ireland is right after it. Sounds modern - yes. He sings 13th, kinda later on, which is a good spot for a pop song to do well. I think because there are other favourites in this semi, this may suffer, but I wouldn't rule it out. Jedward did it twice, he could too! :lol: Cyprus and Belgium sing 14th and 15th. Two outsiders according to polls and bets, yet have awesome draws! Despina brings class and experience on stage with a nice ballad. It is the last ballad of the semi#1, which could be a plus! On the other hand, Roberto is young, but enthusiastic and his song is a fine contrast to Cyprus. It is the last song/pop-dance song to be performed on English, but not the last song of the night. That can work in his favour!! Serbia sings last and they seem like certain qualifiers. It is a catchy song, sang by 3 girls, which have ok to pretty good vocals.

So yeah, confusing and anyone can really qualify!!! :lol:

Um, my eyes do not like this massive paragraph. Any chance of editing that a bit so I can read it?
 

GRE

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Um, my eyes do not like this massive paragraph. Any chance of editing that a bit so I can read it?

Basically no,because he describes each entry,and the conclusion is that all countries of first semi have hopes of qualifying.
 

Terence

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Nobody has predicted :lv: to qualify, the others have all been mentioned!

From the first semifinal, we all agree :dk:, :nl:, :ru:, :ua: and :rs: will make the final, whilst only :gr:, :no: and :ge: are unanimously tipped to qualify from semi 2! Can one of those cause an upset and fail to qualify?!

One person thinks :az: will fail, two think :at: and :il: will fail.
 

GRE

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Nobody has predicted :lv: to qualify, the others have all been mentioned!

From the first semifinal, we all agree :dk:, :nl:, :ru:, :ua: and :rs: will make the final, whilst only :gr:, :no: and :ge: are unanimously tipped to qualify from semi 2! Can one of those cause an upset and fail to qualify?!

One person thinks :az: will fail, two think :at: and :il: will fail.
Ι dont think that Netherlands are sure qualifier! And that's for sure!
 

Terence

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Of course, but from all people who predicted in the topic so far, the Netherlands have always been included + I'm pretty certain that they will only qualify because of the jury votes!
 

VikingTiger

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This year it will depend more than ever on the performance on stage. Especially the juries tend to strike hard on bad vocals (2012 Tooji, Jedwards), and be very rewarding when it comes to good vocals/performances (2012 Pastora, Rona). I guess the televoters are more prone to punish less "instant" song (2012 Nina Zilli + in general ballads) , but can be more forgiving for a bit shaky vocals if the song/show is to their liking (2012 Tooji, Jedwards). But a tacky show seems to ruin any songs chances; both with the juries and the televoters (2012 Trackshittaz, Valentina).
 

VikingTiger

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So; if there are no really bad performances, this would be my guess for the qualifications Semi 1:

:ru: A sure qualifier. Will get enough jury and televoters points.
:ua: Another sure qualifier - again; both juries and televoters will vote for this.
:nl: I dont have doubts about the Netherlands this year, even though juries will be more rewarding towards Anouk.
:dk: Both jury and televotes. Sure qualifier.
:md: I am quite sure there is room for yet another ballad from the former USSR.
:rs: I guess the televoters will see to it that Serbia qualifies. Will not do too bad amongst the juries either.
:at: I have completely changed my mind on this one. It is a good starter of the ESC 2013!
:lt: Getting difficult to predict now. But this is quite different, the juries will like it I think.
:ie: Again; only IF Ryan does a good performance.
:by: Instant enough for televoters, and I dont think it will be really disliked by juries either.

I think several countries might qualify here. I really have doubts about the last three on my list.
Croatia might very well qualify, but I think the "former USSR" countries will tend to vote for each other and thus giving a hard time for the other ballads.
If Slovenia manages to come across well on the tv-screen they might get into top 10.
As for Montenegro the song is definitely quality, modern, cool - but the rapping part of the entries normally have a hard time coming through in a live show as the ESC. But maybe this will prove me wrong?
 

VikingTiger

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Semi 2

:no: Sure qualifyer. Jury+televoters
:gr: It's different, stands out. Jury+televoters
:ge: No doubts about Georgia either, only duet this year. Juries will place it rather high.
:az: My guess is that this ballad will also be places high by the televoters; quite instant, handsome male + it's Az.
:il: Top 3 with the juries, and around 10-12 with the televoters will probably be enough.
:sm: Fans love it. Both juries and televoters will like it (but not love it).
:fi: Will be placed higher amongst televoters, but should qualify.
:mk: Getting difficult. But I think Esma will bring enough both tele and jury-votes.
:ch: Quite instant melody. Good enough for the juries as well?
:mt: Will be more popular with juries, but quite nice sound, down-to-earth.
 

SRBIJA

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Semi 2

:no: Sure qualifyer. Jury+televoters
:gr: It's different, stands out. Jury+televoters
:ge: No doubts about Georgia either, only duet this year. Juries will place it rather high.
:az: My guess is that this ballad will also be places high by the televoters; quite instant, handsome male + it's Az.
:il: Top 3 with the juries, and around 10-12 with the televoters will probably be enough.
:sm: Fans love it. Both juries and televoters will like it (but not love it).
:fi: Will be placed higher amongst televoters, but should qualify.
:mk: Getting difficult. But I think Esma will bring enough both tele and jury-votes.
:ch: Quite instant melody. Good enough for the juries as well?
:mt: Will be more popular with juries, but quite nice sound, down-to-earth.

xbowxbow I couldn't have said it better myself.
 

Celia

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I can't see :mk: in the Final this year. Many people are disappointed with the new song + the rest of ex-yu countries (those who know Esma) don't vote in that semifinal.
 

VikingTiger

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I can't see :mk: in the Final this year. Many people are disappointed with the new song + the rest of ex-yu countries (those who know Esma) don't vote in that semifinal.

You may be right. Imperija would have gotten through quite easily, but now Macedonia is an uncertain card. Even though I think they will get one of the last places from this semi.
 
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