Semi-final predictions : Who will qualify?

[A-lister]

So, which ten entries do you think will qualify from each semi? This is a prediction thread so list the countries you think will qualify and not the ones you want or hope for.

 

[Yamarus]

Semi 1

Russia, Netherlands, Ukraine, Denmark, Serbia, Slovenia, Austria, Croatia, Estonia

Semi 2

Azerbaijan, Malta, Greece, Armenia (yup), Georgia, Norway, Finland, Israel, Romania, Albania

 

[A-lister]

My prediction (in starting number order):

Semi 1:

(thanx to juries)

(... the juries awful taste and diaspora voting will help this relic cheese qualify)
(mostly thanx to juries I think)

(I don't like it though )
(wishful thinking perhaps)



The final qualifier is a total dark-horse to me

Semi 2:


()
(mostly thanx to juries)
( this crap will qualify with the help of juries "oh we only care about vocals" and diaspora "oh we only care about the country)
(another relic cheese that will get pushed by juries and diaspora)


(the juries will push this rather than the televoters)
(yes, I actually think this will qualify)


^I really hope my predictions will turn out wrong though, some of these doesn't even deserve to see the light of the final imo.

 

[ShoeFlo]

SF 1:


(because of neighbor countries)

(it's mainstream and it's Russia)



(like last year: crappy entry but whyever they reach final)



SF 2:




(duets work always)


(I think some countries like this kind of music)





threatens to get lost because it's too quiet and inconspicuous. Hopefully the jury helps

 

[A-lister]

threatens to get lost because it's too quiet and inconspicuous. Hopefully the jury helps

I also fear this one might get lost While I usually don't agree with the juries taste, atleast I hope their love for ballads and good live vocals can save this one atleast....

so deserves a good placing this year!

 

[toinou03]

I tried to calculate how the points could be given (last year I had 19 countries on 20 ! I just put Belarus instead of Malta.

For the moment I found :
Semi final 1
(leaving out Croatia, Estonia, Belgium, Ireland, Belarus and Cyprus)

Semi final 2
(leaving out Bulgaria, Switzerland, Romania, Armenia, Iceland, Hungary, Latvia)

But don't judge me I will make up my mind later on ! And all will be different when we will see the rehersals. There are always big surprises !

 

[doctormalisimo]

Semi 1:

I think the televoters and juries will agree on all except Austria (jury save), Montenegro (televote save)

Semi 2:

I think the televoters and juries will agree on all, except Armenia (televote save), Iceland (jury save), Romania (televote save) and San Marino (jury save)

 

[Terence]

Well rehearsals will change everything but at the moment:

Semifinal 1:


Semifinal 2:


Juries will surely help Austria, Croatia, Moldova and Netherlands in Semi 1
Albania, Georgia, Malta and Switzerland will be the juries' darlings in Semi 2

 

[aletem]

Hard to predict right now, without the draw. The first semi is much better and I can't say anyone who will definitely won't qualify from that semi. I would think that Cyprus and Ireland have the lowest chances, but they still have good chances (as they could rely on the draw). Same thing with Belgium.

As for semi#2, it's hard to say who will qualify due to the quality there. Latvia will probably fail, as would one of Malta/San Marino (or both). Romania will be Berghendalized this year and maybe one more??? Switzerland won't qualify and people don't usually vote for something like the Hungarian song. There is no way all the Nordics will advance. Iceland or Finland will flop for sure. One rock song will not do as well, so it might stay in the semi.

 

[Narmina]

My predicitons

SF 1












SF 2

 

[GRE]

My predicitons

Argentina?

 

[Narmina]

Argentina?

hahah sorry

 

[aletem]

Here. I made two scorewiz tables. I considered neighbour/diaspora/common voting/friendly voting/common jury voting/wtf jusy voting/+random Georgia voting. Now don't get offended:
Semi#1
Eurovision semi#1 - Detailed voting grid
I don't think the results look realistic here. I think the top4 could be top4, maybe Ukraine a bit higher. As for the others, well it's an open game. I tried!

Semi#2
Eurovision Semi#2 - Detailed voting grid
This looks a lot more realistic to me. I suppose you can put San Marino/Switzerland ahead of one Balkan country Bulgaria/Macedonia/Albania. Despite the draw, I don't think Romania will go through. Georgia sang 12th last year and ended almost last.

 

[WhoKnows]

Here. I made two scorewiz tables. I considered neighbour/diaspora/common voting/friendly voting/common jury voting/wtf jusy voting/+random Georgia voting. Now don't get offended:
Semi#1
Eurovision semi#1 - Detailed voting grid
I don't think the results look realistic here. I think the top4 could be top4, maybe Ukraine a bit higher. As for the others, well it's an open game. I tried!

Semi#2
Eurovision Semi#2 - Detailed voting grid
This looks a lot more realistic to me. I suppose you can put San Marino/Switzerland ahead of one Balkan country Bulgaria/Macedonia/Albania. Despite the draw, I don't think Romania will go through. Georgia sang 12th last year and ended almost last.

I think those look really good. I'm predicting 9/10 in the first semi (Lithuania instead of Bulgaria) and 8/10 in the second (Albania and Bulgaria out, Malta and Switzerland in, but I'm not sure about these two anyway).

 

[CrimTV]

Here. I made two scorewiz tables. I considered neighbour/diaspora/common voting/friendly voting/common jury voting/wtf jusy voting/+random Georgia voting. Now don't get offended:
Semi#1
Eurovision semi#1 - Detailed voting grid
I don't think the results look realistic here. I think the top4 could be top4, maybe Ukraine a bit higher. As for the others, well it's an open game. I tried!

Semi#2
Eurovision Semi#2 - Detailed voting grid
This looks a lot more realistic to me. I suppose you can put San Marino/Switzerland ahead of one Balkan country Bulgaria/Macedonia/Albania. Despite the draw, I don't think Romania will go through. Georgia sang 12th last year and ended almost last.

All I will say is that without a doubt Ireland will get UK's 12 in the semi this year

 

[QwaarJet]

All I will say is that without a doubt Ireland will get UK's 12 in the semi this year

I would be shocked if Ireland got 12 this year. It'll be Denmark or Netherlands that get the UK 12.

 

[Centrix]

Semi 1: - Belarus can replace Montenegro or Belgium

Semi 2: - Israel can replace Albania

 

[evilperson]

Hmm I don't know, it's hard to anticipate how the new voting system will affect some of the regular voting patterns but this is my guess:

Semi 1: and I could see potentially qualifying as well.

Semi 2: and these are not without a chance either

 

[Schlagerman1]

My guess of the semis at the moment (in the starting order

Semi 1:











Semi 2:

 

[ParadiseES]

Here. I made two scorewiz tables. I considered neighbour/diaspora/common voting/friendly voting/common jury voting/wtf jusy voting/+random Georgia voting. Now don't get offended:
Semi#1
Eurovision semi#1 - Detailed voting grid
I don't think the results look realistic here. I think the top4 could be top4, maybe Ukraine a bit higher. As for the others, well it's an open game. I tried!

Semi#2
Eurovision Semi#2 - Detailed voting grid
This looks a lot more realistic to me. I suppose you can put San Marino/Switzerland ahead of one Balkan country Bulgaria/Macedonia/Albania. Despite the draw, I don't think Romania will go through. Georgia sang 12th last year and ended almost last.

The semi 1 looks pretty accurate, except:
- I don't see Serbia that high, mostly because of the juries and neither I see them getting many points out of the Balkan area.
- Belgium qualifying? NO WAY
- Austria will qualify. It's a jury wank just like in 2011, but this year song is more appealing to the televoters.

About the semi 2, I don't agree at all, especially the Spanish votes. There's no way Azerbaijan gets more points than Norway, Israel or Bulgaria, and Romania will get a very low score with this new system.