I'm not quite sure what Finland has to do with this. Romania was in the bottom 5 of the juries in the Finals and all I'm saying is the odds of them not qualifying if there was a 50/50 Semi were pretty big but we'll never know. And the "quality" of music is a subjective matter and statements we hear every year. I personally think 2011 was way weaker. Romania's biggest friends (points given to Romania) are Spain, Moldova, Israel, Portugal and Cyprus. So they can only count on Spain's support and partially Cyprus though were those 12 points will go to.In the final they placed it higher than Finland, which was the entry they awarded with their wildcard (= ended up at least in tenth place of the jury vote). Even if the semi-final positions had been slightly reversed for these countries, Romania would still have benefitted from their comfortable televoting jut.
Not denying Romania might fail one day but definitely not in such a dreadful year and with a singer that knows to hit the notes.
I'm not saying it won't qualify, all I'm saying is that it's not as guaranteed as you make it out to be.
Finland was in the jury's bottom-2 in the final and yet the country they made qualify against the public's will so it is beyond me why you so confidently assume that an entry that was given an even higher rank by them (in the finals) and in addition received a lot more televoting support would of been dragged under the qualification mark.
My point is that if they could qualify with Balkan girls they basically can get away with everything unless perhaps the semi-final they are competing in would be much bigger and stronger (in terms of mass appeal). Obviously both isn't the case IMHO but indeed this is only my evaluation and no universal truth.
You can disagree with my personal observation of the 2009 situation but the original point was that you automatically assume that "It's my life" is going to qualify just due to the fact it's Romania. All I'm saying is, don't be too sure.Finland was in the jury's bottom-2 in the final and yet the country they made qualify against the public's will so it is beyond me how you so confidently assume that an entry that was given an even higher rank by them (in the finals) and in addition received a lot more televoting support would of been dragged under the qualification mark.
My point is that if they could qualify with Balkan girls they basically can get away with everything unless perhaps the semi-final they are competing in would be much bigger and stronger (in terms of mass appeal). Obviously both isn't the case IMHO but indeed this is only my evaluation and no universal truth.
Random:
Why do i keep going back to Cezare Borgia when i read the name of the thread? lol
Okay, I was too imprecise: "Romania" and a small weak field and a good/showcasing singer is what it makes a certain qualifier in my eyes.
As for your theory, you may stick to it, but from what we know it defies all rules of logic and probability.
All I said was that with a 50/50 jury & televote in the 2009 Semis, the odds for Romania not qualifying would be pretty big. I based it on the kind of music juries usually like and vote for as well as how it actually scored with the juries in the Finals. The only argument you have is that Finland 2009 did even worse.Okay, I was too imprecise: "Romania" and a small weak field and a good/showcasing singer is what it makes a certain qualifier in my eyes.
As for your theory, you may stick to it, but from what we know it defies all rules of logic and probability.
it's unclear to me how this defies logic in your world just because you disagree. This is all obviously hypothetical but how it defies all probability in your world is beyond my understanding. As it is such a CRAZY accusation of mine saying that juries could have put Romania outside their top 10 in the 2009 Semis.
Well, what we know is that:
1) The jury had in their Top-10 of the semi-final.
2) In the finals, the jury put ahead of .
Now it is still possible that the second point for some reasons was reversed in the semi-final. But even if this had been the case, not only would of had to overcome a 25-points-difference to overtake , also a non-qualifier (the jury rejected in favour of ) had to defeat them through massive support by the jury. From a mathematical point of view this is far from likely.