I'm pretty confident about the following:
1. Denmark
2. Ukraine
3. Germany
4. Russia
5. United Kingdom
6. Azerbaijan
7. Georgia
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And then:
8. Italy (this is something that the juries would put it high, otherwise it won't go so well with the televoting..being realistic)
9. Greece - the juries will slay it I think, so I am not 100% sure about it
10. Netherlands/Croatia - Croatia is something that can take jury votes, but also some decent ex-yu diaspora votes as well. Netherlands should do quite well with the juries. Ermm, I'll go with Netherlands on this one.
There are few others I would consider, but not Norway or Sweden. I would ditch Israel too, because we know how they ended up in 2010.