I think the only countries eligible for the Kate Ryan award are Denmark, Norway, Germany and the Netherlands. Each favoured by the majority of fans and expected to do very well judging by betting odds. San Marino is a fan favourite
but it's hard to say what will happen with it. Valentina is fighting an uphill struggle to begin with.
All four of the countries I mentioned previously above in one way or another smell of Kate Ryan. Norway's song is very noisy and harsh which could put people off. Germany's entry sounds like it's from 10 years ago. The Dutch song doesn't "go" anywhere... but I think the country with the biggest chance of winning the award is Denmark. I'm getting Slovakia 2010 vibes from it.
It's more than likely that at least one of these countries is going to flop like a fish.