Betting Odds 2021

[DanielLuis]

Nobody thought anything of Cyprus' chances to win until rehearsals started. That includes bookies and fans alike.

 

[crashworld]

I mean the betting odds predicts the winner of the competition. So that doesn't really mean that a semi-finalist can't qualify to the final even though it's low in the winning odds.

 

[Ianp16]

edit

 

[Realest]

We finally have 'to qualify Odds':

1		Malta Destiny - Je Me Casse	92%	1.02	1.05	1.02	1.03
2		Sweden Tusse - Voices	87%	1.1	1.07	1.1	1.09
3		Cyprus Elena Tsagrinou - El Diablo	86%	1.1	1.08	1.13	1.13
4		Lithuania The Roop - Discoteque	82%	1.15	1.14	1.15	1.14
5		Ukraine Go_A - Shum	73%	1.25	1.25	1.39	1.39
6		Azerbaijan Efendi - Mata Hari	73%	1.4	1.22	1.27	1.28
7		Romania Roxen - Amnesia	72%	1.4	1.25	1.27	1.28
8		Russia Manizha - Russian Woman	72%	1.3	1.3	1.36	1.36
9		Norway TIX - Fallen Angel	71%	1.35	1.25	1.38	1.38
10		Croatia Albina - Tick-Tock	65%	1.5	1.44	1.44	1.44
11		Belgium Hooverphonic - The Wrong Place	59%	1.6	1.6	1.65	1.65
12		Israel Eden Alene - Set Me Free	53%	1.85	1.7	1.82	1.83
13		Ireland Lesley Roy - Maps	39%	2.25	2.63	2.4	2.4
14		Australia Montaigne - Technicolour	35%	2.5	2.7	2.9	2.9
15		North Macedonia Vasil - Here I Stand	21%	4.5	4	4.9	4.9
16		Slovenia Ana Soklič - Amen	21%	4.25	4.75	4.6	4.6

1		Switzerland Gjon's Tears - Tout l'univers	89%	1.05	1.07	1.08
2		Bulgaria Victoria - Growing Up Is Getting Old	86%	1.1	1.09	1.1
3		Iceland Daði & Gagnamagnið - 10 Years	83%	1.14	1.13	1.14
4		Greece Stefania - Last Dance	81%	1.15	1.16	1.16
5		Finland Blind Channel - Dark Side	81%	1.15	1.16	1.17
6		Moldova Natalia Gordienko - Sugar	77%	1.2	1.23	1.24
7		San Marino Senhit - Adrenalina	77%	1.2	1.25	1.25
8		Serbia Hurricane - Loco Loco	63%	1.47	1.52	1.53
9		Albania Anxhela Peristeri - Karma	58%	1.6	1.67	1.68
10		Austria Vincent Bueno - Amen	56%	1.65	1.71	1.71
11		Poland Rafał - The Ride	48%	1.95	1.92	1.92
12		Portugal Black Mamba - Love Is On My Side	42%	2.1	2.48	2.5
13		Denmark Fyr & Flamme - Øve os på hinanden	37%	2.4	2.74	2.76
14		Czech Republic Benny Cristo - Omaga	33%	2.8	2.82	2.82
15		Latvia Samanta Tīna - The Moon Is Rising	33%	2.8	2.96	2.96
16		Estonia Uku Suviste - The Lucky One	31%	2.8	3.25	3.25
17		Georgia Tornike Kipiani - You	24%	3.6	4.2	4.3

Semi1:

Surprised that Malta and Sweden "only" got 92%/87%, although they are deadsafe.
Romania and Norway with >70% is also astonishing like Australia only 35%.
The Rest makes more or less Sense.

Semi2:

Here again. Switzerlands Chance is higher than only 89%.
Moldova should be higher as well. Polands Chance is much lower than 48% imo.
Latvia and Czech Republic are probably the most underrated.

 

[Antho]

France is getting closer and closer to Switzerland. I'm happy to see that every performance Barbara delivers gives her a kind of momentum. Hope her live performance at the Grand Final will have the same effect !

 

[Realest]

Wth is happening?

Eurovisionario

@eurovisionario



#Eurovision2021

Israel sigue subiendo y ya se encuentra en el puesto 17.

Azerbaiyán cae al 19.

 

[mauve]

How can that happen?!? I mean we had no live performance (unless we count Efendi's TV performance in), but ... I will never understand the odds though we shouldn't overrate the odds anyway. Let's see what happens after the first rehearsals ...

 

[Antho]

Well that live performance from Efendi was.. mediocre, so it's kinda understandable if it's going down. And Israël is probably still enjoying the momentum it got with the revamp. Btw, France passed Switzerland and is now #2.

 

[crashworld]

Winning odds are nothing to be honest until the rehearsals start. So I wouldn't worry or pay too much attention. Although I'm happy to see people are willing to place bets on my favourites though. Lol.

 

[Iker]

Winning odds are nothing to be honest until the rehearsals start. So I wouldn't worry or pay too much attention. Although I'm happy to see people are willing to place bets on my favourites though. Lol.

I never bet on anything but I feel like betting on and this year.

 

[Shadowfuxcs]

It blows my mind how Finland stays out of the top 10.

 

[Citelis]

Because people overrate some other entries.

 

[Realest]

Betting Odds in the Mid of April.

 

[heke1988]

Wow, I didn't know, Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät was so high in the betting odds.

 

[SwedishFailurez]

Wow, I didn't know, Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät was so high in the betting odds.

Finland was expected to do a Babushki that year.

 

[Citelis]

Interesting that Greece is close to top10 every year since 2017 but in all 3 cases the result was way lower.

 

[Iker]

Interesting that Greece is close to top10 every year since 2017 but in all 3 cases the result was way lower.

Because Greece is often lacklustre or dismal at staging.

 

[Shadowfuxcs]

There is also a false perception that Greece has a huge diaspora and that Balkan and south European countries have some kind of bias in favor of Greece. All these are false, yes a lot of Greeks live abroad, but the population is not large enough to make a difference like it was with Turkey and Poland, and Greece never received friendly voting apart from Cyprus and to a lesser extend from Albania. These were the only two countries that actually gave points to "Better love".

West European audiences like to perpetuate such stereotypes to justify why masterpieces like the Schooch and Gemini were bombing while eastern Europe was dominant in the 00's. Greece was succesful in the 00's because the broadcaster found the know-how of presenting "ethnic" booty shaking songs with staging based on the stereotypes of bouzouki-opa-dishbreaking that foreigners expect to see from Greece.
Therefore the alleged "Greece enjoys political support from the televote" legend was created and it is still reflected in odds and predictions.

 

[heke1988]

Greece was disappointment in 2018: Song was good, but staging was a disaster.

 

[Realest]

We have 'not to qualify' Odds:

1		Slovenia Ana Soklič - Amen	78%	1.17	1.13
2		North Macedonia Vasil - Here I Stand	77%	1.17	1.15
3		Australia Montaigne - Technicolour	64%	1.4	1.39
4		Ireland Lesley Roy - Maps	63%	1.47	1.35
5		Israel Eden Alene - Set Me Free	48%	1.93	1.8
6		Belgium Hooverphonic - The Wrong Place	46%	1.93	1.96
7		Croatia Albina - Tick-Tock	33%	2.66	2.7
8		Ukraine Go_A - Shum	30%	2.9	3
9		Norway TIX - Fallen Angel	29%	2.95	3.2
10		Russia Manizha - Russian Woman	28%	3.1	3.3
11		Azerbaijan Efendi - Mata Hari	27%	3.4	3.3
12		Romania Roxen - Amnesia	25%	3.4	3.8
13		Cyprus Elena Tsagrinou - El Diablo	16%	5.5	5.5
14		Lithuania The Roop - Discoteque	15%	6.49	5.8
15		Sweden Tusse - Voices	12%	8.44	6.45
16		Malta Destiny - Je Me Casse	9%	11	8.35

1		Georgia Tornike Kipiani - You	76%	1.15	1.22
2		Estonia Uku Suviste - The Lucky One	64%	1.51	1.29
3		Latvia Samanta Tīna - The Moon Is Rising	63%	1.39	1.44
4		Czech Republic Benny Cristo - Omaga	62%	1.38	1.5
5		Denmark Fyr & Flamme - Øve os på hinanden	61%	1.48	1.45
6		Portugal Black Mamba - Love Is On My Side	61%	1.45	1.49
7		Poland Rafał - The Ride	55%	1.62	1.65
8		Austria Vincent Bueno - Amen	48%	1.9	1.88
9		Albania Anxhela Peristeri - Karma	44%	1.96	2.14
10		Serbia Hurricane - Loco Loco	38%	2.34	2.4
11		Moldova Natalia Gordienko - Sugar	25%	3.55	3.75
12		San Marino Senhit - Adrenalina	23%	3.7	4.05
13		Greece Stefania - Last Dance	22%	4.25	4.05
14		Iceland Daði & Gagnamagnið - 10 Years	17%	5.05	5.34
15		Finland Blind Channel - Dark Side	16%	6.45	4.93
16		Bulgaria Victoria - Growing Up Is Getting Old	14%	5.3	7.32
17		Switzerland Gjon's Tears - Tout l'univers	11%	7.75	8.44